5 Nov.: The 44 Grad rockets, Qassam missiles and mortar rounds which blasted Israel from Gaza Wednesday, Nov. 5, were fired from houses close to the border fence which Hamas had turned into fortified firing positions. Borrowing Hizballah’s trick from the 2006 Lebanon war, the Hamas firing squads remove the roofs and cover the top floors with camouflage netting easily removed for attacks.
DEBKAfile’s military analysts report: Two years after the 34-day Hizballah rocket blitz of northern Israel - and five months into an informal truce with Hamas - the IDF is still not coping with this tactic.
Furthermore, Wednesday, the civilian front was again abandoned to a heavy missile bombardment. DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources further disclose that an anti-tank missile strike against an IDF patrol south of the Kissufim Gaza crossing last Friday, Oct. 31, was not carried out by Hamas, but an al Qaeda cell located in the southern Gaza town of Khan Younes.
Senior officers of the Southern Command are sharply critical of defense minister Ehud Barak’s soft, ceasefire-at-any-price policy, our sources report. They say Barak hit the wrong note when he stressed Israel’s interest in the truce after Hamas was found to have dug a tunnel Gaza under the Israeli border fence in order to kidnap more Israeli soldiers or civilians. He is encouraging Hamas to initiate more violations and weakening Israel’s hand for recovering its abducted soldier Gilead Shalit.
5 Nov.: More than 40 missiles were fired against Israeli towns and villages within range of Gaza all of Wednesday, Nov. 5. Two Grad rockets hit Ashkelon’s main street and industrial zone sending three women into shock. Israel’s emergency services in Ashkelon, Sderot, Netivot and the villages around Gaza went on alert, but not all the schools within missile range have shelters or fortified classrooms.
31 Oct.: This intelligence assessment, disclosed to AP by a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), indicates that the Iranians are testing ways of using nuclear waste. DEBKAfile’s sources report that the waste will come from the Bushehr reactor, which the Russians have pledged to finish by the end of the year or March, 2009, at latest and for which they are providing the fuel.
The spent fuel at issue as the source of the enriched uranium is not enough to yield the 30 kilos of weapons grade (90 percent enriched) material for a bomb, but is another step in that direction. DEBKAfile adds that Bushehr could provide enough nuclear waste for rapid production of several bombs or warheads.
In a Kol Israel radio interview this week, Martin Indyk, former US ambassador to Israel and member of Barack Obama’s Middle East team, disclosed that US intelligence now reckons Iran will have between one and three nuclear bombs by the end of 2009.
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"I think that Iran is going to be one of our biggest challenges," he said in an ABC News interview broadcast Sunday, warning a nuclear-armed Iran "could potentially trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East."
Obama promised "a new emphasis on respect and a new emphasis on being willing to talk, but also a clarity about what our bottom lines are."
"And we are in preparations for that. We anticipate that we're going to have to move swiftly in that area."
Former US defense secretary William Perry predicted Thursday that Obama would likely face a "serious crisis" over Iran's nuclear ambitions in his first year in office.
The Islamic republic has defied UN sanctions designed to halt its enrichment of uranium, insisting that its nuclear program is for civilian energy needs and has no military bent.
Obama said he would also confront Iran about its "exporting terrorism through Hamas, through Hezbollah."
"And we are going to have to take a new approach. And I've outlined my belief that engagement is the place to start. That the international community is going to be taking cues from us in how we want to approach Iran," he said.
Obama said his administration would be "sending a signal that we respect the aspirations of the Iranian people," but would also make clear that it has "certain expectations in terms of how an international actor behaves."
Obama's offer of direct talks represents a break with three decades of US-Iranian estrangement, which has sharpened with allegations by President George W. Bush's administration of Iranian support for extremists in Iraq.
Despite his overtures, last month Obama was accused of "cowboy" talk by Iran's conservative parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani for describing a nuclear-armed Iran as "unacceptable."
According to a New York Times report Sunday, Bush last year rejected a secret Israeli request for an air strike using US bunker-busting bombs against the main Iranian nuclear complex at Natanz.
But citing unidentified senior US and foreign officials, the newspaper said Bush had authorized a new covert operation aimed at sabotaging Iran's suspected effort to develop nuclear weapons.
It said top US officials led by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who is staying on in the Obama administration, had persuaded Bush that any overt attack on Iran would prove ineffective, lead to the expulsion of international inspectors and drive Iran's nuclear program deeper underground.
However, Bush opted for renewed US efforts to penetrate Iran's nuclear supply chain abroad, undermine the country's electrical and computer systems as well as other networks on which Iran relies, the New York Times wrote.
Another report by the Washington Post said Iran was successfully using front companies based in the Gulf region and Asia to import US technology that can have military uses.
The report said the banned items include circuit boards, software and Global Positioning System devices that are used to make sophisticated versions of the improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, deployed to kill US troops in Iraq.
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Citing US researchers and Justice Department documents, the newspaper said Iran in the past two years had acquired numerous banned items including circuit boards, software and Global Positioning System devices that are used to make sophisticated versions of the improvised explosive devices, or IEDs, that kill US troops in Iraq.
The trade was briefly disrupted after the United States imposed sanctions against several Dubai-based, Iranian front companies in 2006, but the technology pipeline to Tehran is now flowing at an even faster pace, the report said.
In some cases, Iran simply opened new front companies and shifted its operations from Dubai to Asia, said the paper, citing unnamed officials.
"Without doubt, it is still going on," the report quoted one former US intelligence official as saying.
Bomb circuitry is only a part of the global clandestine trade that continues to flourish, The Post said.
A federal investigation in New York into whether banks helped customers skirt US rules forbidding business with Iran turned up evidence of Iranian interests trying to buy tungsten and other materials used in the guidance systems of long-range missiles, the paper said.
As a result of the investigation, a British bank agreed to forfeit 350 million dollars, according to the report.
![]() NKorea offers envoy for Obama inauguration: reports North Korea offered to send its chief nuclear negotiator to next week's inauguration of US President-elect Barack Obama, but Washington has responded coolly, South Korean news reports said Monday. The JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, quoting a Seoul government source, said the communist state may be trying to assess whether its traditional enemy's policy will change under Obama, who takes office on January 20. The hardline North, which has been locked in nuclear disarmament talks for years, refrained from its customary criticism of the United States in a policy-setting New Year message. "The North, through its United Nations mission office in New York, conveyed the message that it can send Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-Gwan as a representative to the inauguration ceremony," the source told JoongAng. The message was delivered to the Obama transition team via a non-profit US organisation, The Korea Society, the source said. "I've heard negative opinions far outpaced the positive views," the source added, referring to the response from the Obama team. "Pyongyang may be trying to test the political waters in the Obama administration by watching Washington's response." Yonhap news agency, citing a diplomatic source, said the North's proposal had been turned down because of US scepticism. Both JoongAng and Yonhap said the new administration would be unlikely to invite a Pyongyang envoy until it has mapped out its policy on North Korea. South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-Hwan said he could not confirm the reports. But he noted that only resident ambassadors, and not special foreign envoys, are normally invited to US inaugurations. The United States has since 2003 been involved in six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear disarmament. The latest round -- involving the United States, the two Koreas, China, Russia and Japan -- ended fruitlessly in Beijing last month. No agreement was reached on ways to verify the secretive nation's declaration of its atomic programmes. |
Describing the threats the next president will face, Bush said he was concerned the North Korean regime had a clandestine program for highly enriched uranium.
"So they're still dangerous," Bush said.
And he added: "Iran is still dangerous."
It was the first time the US president had referred to North Korea's suspected uranium enrichment work since international talks with Pyongyang broke down last month. Previous public statements by Bush had focused on North Korea's plutonium program.
The disarmament talks with North Korea involving the United States, South Korea, China, Russia and Japan collapsed in Beijing in December after failing to reach agreement on how to determine if the secretive nation is telling the truth about its nuclear programs.
"North Korea is still a problem. There is a debate in the intelligence community about how big a problem they are. One of my concerns is that there might be a highly enriched uranium program," said Bush, who steps down on January 20.
"Therefore, it is very important that out of the six-party talks comes a strong verification regime" to confirm North Korea is abiding by its commitments.
Bush did not comment further on Iran but his administration has previously demanded Tehran suspend its uranium enrichment work and accused Iran of secretly pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
Iran denies it is seeking an atomic bomb and says its nuclear program aims to provide energy for its growing population when reserves of fossil fuels run out.
NKorean arms exports rose to 100 million dlrs last year: report
Exports of North Korean missiles and other weapons rose in value to about 100 million dollars last year mainly due to tensions in the Middle East, a South Korean newspaper reported Monday.
The hardline communist country saw a sharp drop in weapons exports in 2007 because of international sanctions imposed after it tested missiles and an atom bomb in 2006.
Last year the value of its overseas arms sales rose to about 100 million dollars or more than 10 percent of total exports, the Dong-a Ilbo newspaper said.
It quoted an unidentified Seoul government official as saying progress in six-party nuclear disarmament talks last year helped North Korea sell more weapons.
The paper said purchasers felt less political burden in buying such weapons because the talks had made some headway.
The Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America were said to be export destinations.
"Middle East countries are known to have purchased a large amount of weapons from North Korea due to a military confrontation with Israel," the official was quoted as saying.
North Korea has allegedly supplied missiles to Syria, and Washington said Iranian officials were present at the North's missile test-launches in 2006.
The South's unification ministry and defence ministry said they could not confirm the newspaper report.
The United States has accused North Korea of being a leading global proliferator of weapons. But the cash-strapped country has refused to stop missile exports, a major source of hard currency earnings.
Israeli military intelligence chief:
Iran has crossed technological threshold in drive for nuclear bomb
08 Mar.: Maj. Gen. Amos
Yadlin, head of Israeli military intelligence AMAN, confirmed at the weekly
government session in Jerusalem Sunday, March 8, that Iran had crossed the
technological threshold to a nuclear bomb capability and could decide at any
time to go into production. 8 Mar.: DEBKAfile's
Washington sources quote experts familiar with the Iranian program maintain that
it is far more advanced than the US and Israeli governments are willing to
admit.
On March 4, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy disclosed:
1. Iran has enough fissile material available for up to 50 nuclear bombs and
can go from low enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium in a year or so.
2. Israel will face the moment of no-return for action against a nuclear-armed
Iran when Russia begins delivering sophisticated S-300 missile interceptors to
Tehran.
Israel's current leaders, while evading action to curb a nuclear-armed Iran,
now go about saying that the Jewish state can live in its shadow. They argue
that Israel is not the Islamic Republic primary objective but the subjugation
of the Sunni Muslim world. They also maintain that Tehran will not go into
production of single bombs but wait until it can produce batches of 10-15 bombs
or nuclear warheads.
This proposition was knocked over by the Washington think tank's report and the
briefing delivered to the Israeli cabinet by Israel's intelligence chief, Maj.
Gen. Amos Yadlin, Sunday, March 8.
09 June: Hamas is escalating
its attacks on fellow Palestinians to defeat US presidential envoy George
Mitchell's peace talks in the region, starting Tuesday, June 9, so long as Hamas
and Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah were at war. DEBKAfile's counter terror sources
disclose that Monday night, three female Hamas members, one wearing a bomb vest,
were captured in the West Bank town of Qalqilya on their way to kill Palestinian
Authority security officers.
The reappearance of suicide bombers on the
West Bank is extremely troubling, say military sources, because of the
likelihood that they will next turn against their old targets in
Israel.
Ahead of its foiled triple suicide attack, Hamas circulated the
photos of six senior Palestinian security officers in Qalqilya over the caption:
"These commanders are sentenced to execution."
Hamas politburo chief
Khaled Meshaal refused point blank to call off Hamas' terror campaign or give
the Obama peace initiative a chance when summoned from Damascus to Cairo by
Egypt's intelligence minister Gen. Omar Suleiman.
First, he said, the
US-trained Palestinian Authority security force must end its crackdown on Hamas
gunmen on the West Bank. Shortly after his conversation with Gen. Suleiman in
Cairo, Hamas staged its first ever Qassam missile strike on Egyptian security
forces guarding the Sinai-Gazan border.
According to the calculations of the Vienna-based International
Atomic Energy Agency in its new report, Iran will be able to produce a single
nuclear bomb by year's end. DEBKAfile's military sources note that these
estimates only apply to uranium enrichment at Natanz. They do not factor in the
product of Iran's clandestine enrichment plants.
Friday night, June 5,
officials in Vienna disclosed that Iran had accumulated quantities of
low-enriched uranium (1,339 kilos produced since November 2008 plus 839 kilos in
stock) - enough to convert into the amount of high-enriched uranium needed for
making a single nuclear bomb. Over 7,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges were
installed at Natanz, 2,000 more than reported in February.
At this rate,
10,000 centrifuges will be spinning at Natanz with a capacity to enrich enough
uranium for two bombs by the end of the year, double the IAEA's modest estimate
by its own figures.
The IAEA admits its investigations are stalled both
in Iran and Syria, where its inspectors also reported Friday the discovery of
new traces of man-made uranium near Damascus.
DEBKAfile's military
sources note that these particles could come from only two sources:
A new
enrichment site or, alternatively, imported enriched uranium smuggled out of
Iran, North Korea or Kazakhstan.
08 June: DEBKAfile's military sources report
at least four Palestinians killed, 12 injured, after Israeli air force
helicopters went into action against Palestinian gunmen who mounted coordinated
assault at several points on the border early Monday, June 8. At least three
Palestinian organizations, Hamas, Jihad Islami and Fatah-al Aqsa Brigades,
opened automatic-machine gun-mortar fire on the Nahal Oz sector in the north,
the Karni crossing in the center and Nir Oz opposite Khan Younes in the south.
In the Karni sector, at least 10 gunmen, some on horses, crossed the
border under cover of early morning mist and attacked an Israeli Golani patrol
in an apparent attempt to snatch soldiers. A fierce firefight developed under
Palestinian cross-border mortar fire from Gaza. Israeli helicopter missiles
struck the mortar crews.
Our sources say they were stirred into action
Monday after several months of restraint by one non-event and two events to show
the flag for Hizballah's expected election victory, to inform US envoy George
Mitchell that his peace drive was stymied without their assent and to reject
President Obama's call for negotiations.
08 June: Early
Monday, June 8, Saad Hariri said his 14 March bloc had retained its
parliamentary majority of 70 out of 128 seats in Sunday's Lebanese election,
overturning all predictions.
These elections bear heavily on Iran's
presidential vote Friday, June 12, since the incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threw
all his personal weight and an estimated $100 million behind the pro-Iranian
alliance's bid to gain control of Lebanon through the ballot-box.
Sources in Beirut say Hizballah has a Plan B to reverse its unexpected
defeat by the bullet with the backing of Tehran and Damascus, especially as
there is no organized military force in Beirut capable of resisting Hizballah.
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RAMALLAH, West Bank (Reuters) - Palestinians voiced dismay on Monday over terms Benjamin Netanyahu set for a peace deal but the Israeli leader won guarded approval in Washington and Brussels for at least accepting Palestinian statehood.
In a speech on Sunday, Netanyahu responded to weeks of U.S. pressure by endorsing for the first time establishment of a Palestinian state, on condition Israel received international guarantees in advance that the new nation would be demilitarized.
Palestinians were disappointed by Netanyahu's demand that they recognize Israel as a Jewish state and his failure to halt Jewish settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank.
Salam Fayyad, prime minister in the Western-backed government of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, said Netanyahu's speech "dealt a new blow to efforts to salvage the peace process, and has undermined the possibility of resuming negotiations based on its terms of reference."
Netanyahu "failed to meet the expectations of the international community" and did not commit to obligations outlined in a 2003 U.S.-sponsored "road map" for peace, he said.
But U.S. President Barack Obama said he saw "positive movement" in Netanyahu's speech and again urged Israel to halt settlement construction.
"Both sides are going to have to move in some politically difficult ways in order to achieve what is going to be in the long-term interests of the Israelis and the Palestinians and the international community," Obama said. "On the Israeli side, that means a cessation of settlements."
The European Union described the speech as "a step in the right direction" but said it was not enough to raise EU-Israel ties to a higher level.
The Foreign Ministry of Russia, a member of the quartet of peace negotiators, noted "with satisfaction" Netanyahu's "adherence to the establishment of peace in the Middle East" and "his readiness to restart the negotiations immediately."
However, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said in remarks to troops that the call to recognize Israel as a Jewish state "increases the complexity of the matter and aborts the chance for peace."
Palestinians argue that granting such recognition would effectively rule out any return of Palestinian refugees to what is now Israel.
DIFFERENCES
Interviewed on U.S. television, Netanyahu said he hoped to narrow differences with Obama over settlements.
Obama has called for a full settlement freeze, in line with the road map, but Netanyahu wants building to continue in existing West Bank enclaves.
"President Obama and I are trying to reach a common understanding on this," Netanyahu told NBC television. "I think we'll find some common ground."
He pledged to keep all of Jerusalem as Israel's capital -- defying Palestinians' claim on the city -- and hedged on whether Israel would ever remove West Bank settlements.
He also ruled out the admission of Palestinian refugees to Israel proper and said Abbas must impose his authority over the breakaway Hamas Islamists ruling the Gaza Strip.
An Arab League spokesman described Netanyahu's proposal as an attempt to embarrass Arab states by presenting them with impossible conditions. "He proposed this project so that the Palestinians and Arabs would reject it, as well as the international community," the spokesman was quoted as saying by Egypt's state news agency.
Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said mediators should challenge Netanyahu on whether he was prepared to tackle territorial issues such as borders, Jerusalem and settlements.
"Netanyahu is talking about negotiations about cantons -- the canton of the state of Palestine, with a flag and an anthem, a state without borders, without sovereignty, without a capital," Erekat said.
Netanyahu's speech met circumspection across the political spectrum in Israel, which has seen almost two decades of stop-start talks about a "two-state solution," a concept the right-wing Likud party chief had long balked at endorsing.
![]() From rice paddy launch pads to big screen control rooms, North Korea's missile program depends on a limited release of imagery to foster fear and uncertainty. |
Chosun Ilbo newspaper quoted a government source as saying the launch structure has been installed and a hangar has been completed at the Dongchang-ri launch site.
"Large girders have recently been installed and the two or three months of preparatory work at the launch pad have been completed," the source told the daily.
"However, no radar has yet been set up and no missile has been brought to the launch pad. A launch is not imminent."
The paper said satellite photos showed the structure to be about 50 metres (165 feet) high, meaning it would be capable of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile measuring 40 metres or longer.
The North's three previous long-range missile launches were from Musudan-ri on the east coast, where the paper said the launch structure is 32 metres high.
The North on April 5 conducted what it called a satellite launch from Musudan-ri.
The US and other powers said no satellite was detected and the exercise was a disguised test of a Taepodong-2 missile theoretically capable of reaching Alaska.
Tensions have been running high since Pyongyang fired its long-range rocket in April, tested a nuclear bomb in May, and then launched short-range missiles and renounced the truce that ended the Korean War.
US and South Korean officials have said earlier there are signs it may be preparing to test-fire another long-range missile.
US intelligence sources also believe the North is likely to respond to tougher new UN sanctions announced Friday with another nuclear test, according to American TV networks.
Chosun said constant movements of personnel and vehicles had been spotted at Kilju county in the northeast where the first two tests were conducted.
Other sources have said there are no signs yet of preparations for a third test.