"I think we have to approach this with a big grain of salt. President (Mahmoud) Ahmadinejad said one thing to the Iranian people on Saturday and another thing to an American journalist on Monday," she said.

"So I think that all of us need to consider this with a healthy dose of skepticism."

She was responding to an interview aired in part on the US television network NBC in which Ahmadinejad struck a relatively conciliatory tone.

If recent US behavior represented a genuinely new approach to Tehran, "we will be facing a new situation and the response by the Iranian people will be a positive one," Ahmadinejad said through an interpreter in a rare interview with a US broadcaster.

On Saturday, however, the president announced that Iran had boosted the number of uranium-enriching centrifuges to 6,000, in an expansion of its nuclear drive that defies international demands for a freeze.

The United States, in a break with past policy, took the unprecedented step of sending a top diplomat to meet Iran's chief negotiator at recent talks in Geneva over Tehran's disputed nuclear program.

BAGHDAD - Suicide bombers, including at least three women, struck Shiite pilgrims in Baghdad and Kurdish protesters in the northern city of Kirkuk on Monday, killing at least 57 people - a brutal reminder that mass gatherings remain vulnerable despite vast improvements in security.

The attacks came even though the U.S. has stepped up efforts to recruit and train women for Iraq's police force and enlist them to join Sunnis fighting al-Qaida. Insurgents increasingly use female bombers because their billowing, black robes easily hide explosives and they are less likely to be searched.

U.S. military figures show at least 27 female suicide bombings this year, compared with eight in 2007.

Monday's attacks tapped into two different sets of fears.

The three nearly simultaneous bombings in Baghdad undermined public confidence in recent security gains that have tamped down sectarian bloodshed. The attack in Kirkuk, 180 miles to the north, showed that ethnic rivalries can turn into mass slaughter in a city that is home to Kurds, Turkomen, Arabs and other minorities.

The U.S. military blamed al-Qaida in Iraq for the Baghdad bombings. It was still investigating the Kirkuk attack, underscoring the more complicated nature of the tensions there. But city police spokseman Brig. Gen. Sarhat Qadir said the terror network was behind that attack as well.

The Baghdad bombings left piles of rubble and shattered glass on the streets alongside crumpled cars and sandals from panicked pilgrims, many of whom had slept at rest areas before rising at dawn to begin their annual march to the golden domed shrine of Imam Moussa al-Kadhim.

Hospital emergency rooms were overwhelmed with bloodied victims, including a young boy with a bandaged head who sucked on a pacifier as he was held by a man.

"I heard women and children crying and shouting and I saw burned women as dead bodies lied in pools of blood on the street," Mustapha Abdullah, a 32-year-old man who was injured in the stomach and legs, said from his hospital bed.

At least 32 people were killed and more than 100 were wounded, Iraqi police and hospital officials said. It was the deadliest attack in the capital since June 17, when a truck bombing killed 63 people in Hurriyah.

In a throwback to more violent times, the Iraqi government announced a 24-hour curfew in Baghdad, banning all vehicle movement starting 5 a.m. Tuesday

The attacks in the capital began about 7:15 a.m., when three of the women detonated their explosives belts in quick succession less than half a mile apart.

The bombers were walking among pilgrims streaming toward the golden domed shrine of the eight-century imam. The shrine, the focus of a major Shiite festival this week, gives its name to the northern neighborhood of Kazimiyah which surrounds it.

Iraqi security forces had deployed about 200 women this week to search female pilgrims in Kazimiyah, but the attacks took place along the procession some six miles southeast of the shrine. There were too few women guards to search people in the procession itself.

The blasts started with an explosion near the National Theater in the central Shiite neighborhood of Karradah, followed by a bombing near a refreshment tent set up for the pilgrims and another between two traffic checkpoints.

Shiites en route to Kazimiyah have been attacked in past years by gunmen in Sunni areas south of Baghdad. No major bombings have struck the pilgrimage, although at least 1,000 pilgrims were killed in a Baghdad bridge stampede caused by rumors of a suicide bomber in 2005.

Since the 2003 ouster of Saddam Hussein, who was a Sunni, Shiite political parties have encouraged huge turnouts at religious festivals to display the majority sect's power in Iraq. Sunni religious extremists have often targeted the gatherings to foment sectarian war, but that has not stopped the Shiites.

Even so, Iraqi authorities had been hopeful they could maintain calm this year as the overall levels of attacks have dropped to their lowest point in more than four years.

At least 478 Iraqi civilians have been killed in violence so far this month, representing a 76 percent decline when compared with July 2007, when the death toll was 2,021, according to an Associated Press count.

The bombings, however, showed the fragility of the gains as insurgents maintain the ability to wage high-profile attacks that inflict a heavy casualty toll. They come ahead of planned U.S.-Iraqi operations aimed at routing insurgents from Diyala province as well as rural hideouts elsewhere in northern Iraq.

Lt. Col. Steve Stover, a spokesman for U.S. forces in Baghdad, blamed al-Qaida in Iraq for the attacks in the capital and confirmed the bombers were all women, including a teenager.

"As we have previously stated, AQI is not defeated. They are evil and responsible for the most heinous attacks against unarmed, non-combatant civilians," he said.

The attack in Kirkuk killed at least 25 people and wounded 185, the police spokesman said.

The suicide bomber struck shortly after 11 a.m. as Kurdish protesters were gathering to protest a draft provincial elections law that would give them less power in Kirkuk. Kurdish objections over a proposed power-sharing formula have blocked the law from being passed - a move that could delay the nationwide voting until next year.

Startled demonstrators ran for cover in nearby buildings, some still holding up the protest banners and Kurdish flag, a yellow sun against red, white and green stripes.

After the explosion, dozens of angry Kurds stormed the offices of a Turkomen political party that opposes Kurdish claims on Kirkuk, opening fire and burning cars amid accusations that their rivals were to blame. No casualties were reported.

But police blamed al-Qaida in Iraq. Suicide attacks are a signature of the terror group.

Police spokesman Brig. Gen. Burhan Tayeb Taha said the bomber was a woman and that he had seen her remains. The U.S. military confirmed a suicide bombing but said it had no indication the attacker was a woman. Maj. Gen. Jamal Tahir, a Kirkuk police spokesman, said police found a car bomb nearby and detonated it safely.

"I think the terrorists are trying to put obstacles before the peaceful coexistence among Kurds, Arabs and Turkomen in Kirkuk," said Tariq Jawhar, an adviser to the speaker of the Kurdish parliament. "The enemies of a new Iraq are behind these criminal acts."

---

Associated Press writers Hamid Ahmed, Saad Abdul-Kadir and Selcan Hacaoglu in Baghdad and the AP News Research Center in New York contributed to this report.

By KIM GAMEL Associated Press Writer

BEIJING - Just over a week before the Beijing Olympics, a militant Islamic group's claims of responsibility for bombings in China have fueled unease about security. The government has assured its people and the Olympic community that heavy security will ensure a secure games.

But its clampdown has smothered a broad array of groups, many with grievances against the government but without a history of violence.

Among the potential troublemakers Chinese security specialists have identified are Tibetan separatists, who staged occasionally violent protests last spring; members of the banned Falun Gong spiritual movement and unemployed workers.

Stirring the latest concerns were videotaped threats purporting to be from an Islamic militant group. They surfaced last week in the name of the Turkistan Islamic Party - a group Chinese and Western terrorism experts say is an offshoot of a secessionist group from China's Central Asian frontier with ties to al-Qaida.

In it, hooded men stood in camouflage fatigues with Kalashnikovs and claimed responsibility for explosions in four cities in Western China in recent months, including two bus bombings last week in Kunming city that authorities said killed two people and injured 14.

One militant, identified by the Washington-based monitoring group IntelCenter as commander Seyfullah, warned athletes and spectators "particularly the Muslims" to stay away.

"Our aim is to target the most critical points related to the Olympics. We will try to attack Chinese central cities severely using the tactics that have never been employed," he said.

Chinese police immediately played down the threat, saying the explosions in Chinese cities claimed by the group were not the work of terrorists.

Still Beijing is being emptied of political critics, underground Christian organizers and ordinary Chinese who come to the capital to protest local government injustices.

Plainclothes security agents surprised rights campaigner Hou Wenzhuo at a cafe on May 30, putting a hood over her head and holding her in an undisclosed detention center for 17 days.

Among their chief concerns during interrogations, she said, were plans for a "human rights torch relay" organized by an exiled Tiananmen Square democracy movement figure and whether Chinese at home might get involved.

"The government is worried that this 'human rights torch' will detract attention from China" and the Olympics, Hou said. "They didn't beat me, but there are different kinds of intimidation."

Officials in charge of security have denied they are rounding up peaceful critics and have defended their actions as necessary, given global terrorism's scope and the publicity attacking the Olympics would bring.

To squelch any threat, Chinese leaders are mobilizing an army of security many times greater than previous Olympics - 110,000 police, riot squads and special forces, augmented by more than 300,000 Olympic volunteers and neighborhood watch members.

"Through all kinds of efforts and by relying on the support and cooperation from the international society and the general public, we are confident we can deal with all the threats and risks and challenges," Liu Shaowu, director of security for the Beijing Olympics organizing committee, said last week.

President Hu Jintao told fellow communist leaders over the weekend that "the task of hosting a safe Olympic Games is as heavy as Mount Tai and everyone shares the responsibility."

The hyper-charged security, however, has put some Western governments on edge, caught between a desire to cooperate on terrorism threats and concern about aiding the policing of peaceful dissent. U.S. and other European governments complain they have offered information but that Chinese police give little in return.

"The Chinese definition of security threat is pretty broad, and in the context of the Olympics, it encompasses anyone who might seek to 'disrupt' the games," Drew Thompson, director of China studies at the Nixon Center in Washington, said in an e-mail.

For the communist regime, "it's not about terrorism. It's about security," said one Western diplomat, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to the media. "It's the current reason for expanding the entire scope of the police state."

Chinese and Western terrorism experts agree the threat from terrorist groups, particularly of the militant Islamic stripe, is real. Hardly a month has passed this year without the government reporting it had disrupted a terrorist plot. But with so much effort focused on Beijing, terrorists may be seeking more vulnerable targets.

"The chances of attacks on Olympic areas are very unlikely," said Rohan Gunaratna of the International Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research in Singapore. "But there could be attacks elsewhere in the run-up to the Olympics to spoil the mood of celebration."

Li Wei, director of the Center for Counterterrorism Studies, which has ties to China's spy agency, said his center has pinpointed five distinct threats: international terrorist groups like al-Qaida, the domestic version fighting to end Chinese rule in far western Xinjiang province, Tibetan separatists, the Falun Gong spiritual movement and ordinary people with grievances against the government or society.

While Li said the Tibetans and Falun Gong are not known for violence, radicals in their midst might lash out. Followers of Falun Gong, a meditation practice suppressed nearly a decade ago after drawing millions of followers, might turn to self-immolation, poisonings and other retaliatory acts if ordered by their leader, believed in hiding in the U.S., he said.

Groups fighting to end Chinese rule in Xinjiang, or what some Muslims call East Turkistan, are singled out as the most likely threat. A rebellion by the indigenous Muslim Turkic people, the Uighurs, has simmered for decades, with some fighting in neighboring Pakistan and Afghanistan.

One group, the East Turkistan Islamic Movement, was based in Afghanistan before the U.S. invasion and is listed as a terrorist organization by the United States. After its leader was killed in 2003, members reorganized into similar groups, including the Turkistan Islamic Party, and received training from al-Qaida in Pakistan's tribal area abutting Afghanistan, said Gunaratna and other terrorism experts.

Gunaratna estimates this hard core numbers around 100. Aside from its recent videotaped threat, the Turkistan Islamic Party released a statement in April calling for biological weapons attacks against China and has posted an Internet video guide on assembling a truck bomb, the IntelCenter said.

Commander Seyfullah's claim to have carried out recent explosions has raised doubts about the group's reach.

Police, cited by Xinhua, said the bus explosion in Shanghai in which three people died was caused by an oil fire and the Wenzhou explosion by a debt-ridden gambler, while there's no evidence to connect the Kunming bus bombings to terrorism.

"Although the Turkistan Islamic Party claimed that they were responsible, I personally think that it's all bluff and bluster," said Li, the counterterrorism expert.

Those explosions, Li and others said, were most likely caused by "lone wolves" - disgruntled individuals and the hardest threat to guard against. Li pointed to the bombing in a park at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics that killed one and injured 111 and was found to be the work of an anti-government extremist.

That "type leaves no clues but only a hot head," said Li.

---

Associated Press reporter Anna Johnson in Cairo contributed to this report.

By CHARLES HUTZLER Associated Press Writer

"The language of deadline-setting is not understandable to us. We gave them our response within a month as we said we would, now they have to reply to us," Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said, according to the state news agency IRNA.

Mottaki said Iran and the major powers had agreed at a July 19 meeting in Geneva to find common ground on both sides' proposals aimed at resolving the standoff over Tehran's nuclear drive, and denied any ultimatum was set.

"Both sides said that in future meetings they should work on the communalities of both frameworks in a constructive way to reach an agreement that satisfies both sides, otherwise Iran's constructive activities will take their natural course," he was quoted as saying by ISNA news agency.

Meanwhile the United States held back on Thursday from insisting on a strict deadline for Iran to give a final answer to the incentives package.

"I didn't count the days. It's coming up soon," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters when asked if Saturday was the deadline for Iran to accept or reject the offer.

He also said there is "no indication of that" when asked whether Washington would pull the incentives offer off the table.

On Wednesday McCormack warned of the consequences of any Iranian defiance, referring to the US threat of more UN and bilateral sanctions.

Iran on July 4 handed major powers what it said was its "constructive and creative" response to their offer presented by EU foreign policy envoy Javier Solana in June aimed at persuading Tehran to halt sensitive nuclear work.

The package, drawn up by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, offers Tehran technology and negotiations if it suspends uranium enrichment which the West fears could be used to make atomic weapons.

Enrichment is a process which makes nuclear fuel but can also create the fissile core of an atomic bomb.

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili held further talks with Solana on July 19, at a meeting that was also attended by a top US diplomat in a major policy shift by Washington on the nuclear issue.

Solana said then that he expected an answer in a fortnight, but Tehran has since said there was no ultimatum or a deadline, just an agreement that it would examine the proposal during the two weeks.

"Perhaps based on incorrect analysis, some of the Geneva participants got the wrong expectation, but our job was to give our views to the 5+1 framework... then we gave our own framework," Mottaki said.

Last Saturday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Iran had boosted the number of uranium-enriching centrifuges to up to 6,000, despite calls for a freeze.

Iran, a leading member of OPEC, has already been slapped with three sets of Security Council sanctions for refusing to halt enrichment.

It insists it has the right to nuclear technology as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and denies wanting atomic weapons, saying it needs to produce electricity for its growing population.

On Wednesday, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on major issues, said Iran would not retreat on the nuclear issue.

Tehran has won support for its stance from foreign ministers of the 118-member Non-Aligned Movement meeting there this week.

"The ministers once again emphasised that Islamic republic of Iran's decision to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and its policies on the fuel cycle should be respected," a statement said.

"We hope the United States grasps the clear message sent by the 118 members of NAM regarding Iran's nuclear programme," Iran's envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency.

"We've received the 24 Sukhoi aircraft" complete with pilots, crews and missiles, Chavez said on his weekly radio program.

"They're for defensive purposes, we're not going to attack anybody," Chavez said, adding that missile test-firing had already begun.

Chavez boasted that the Sukhoi missiles have far greater range than those of the US F-16 fighter jet, and proceeded to warn the Fourth Fleet the US reactivated in July to keep out of Venezuelan waters.

"Any gringo ship that sails into brown waters (river waters) will itself turn brown and go to the bottom, because they'll not get through," Chavez said.

The fighter jets were part of a three-billion dollar military deal with Moscow that include tanks and Kalashnikov assault rifles, which the United States has criticized due to concerns that some of the armament may end up in the hands of leftist Colombian guerrillas.

Mothballed for nearly 60 years, the US Fourth Fleet for Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the Pentagon, has no aircraft carrier or large warships, lacks offensive capability and will not enter any river or maritime territorial limits.

Chavez turned to Russia for military hardware after he was spurned by the United States, who refused to provide spare parts for F-16 jets Caracas bought from Washington in the 1980s.

Israeli foreign minister urges new sanctions on Iran

Israeli warns Iran is heading toward nuclear breakthrough Iran is heading towards a major breakthrough in its nuclear weapons capability, Israel's deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz warned Friday. "Iran is continuing to advance toward a military nuclear capability and is heading towards a major breakthrough," the Iranian-born Mofaz told a think tank after talks in Washington with US officials. "For us such a situation that Iran will have a nuclear power is an existential threat and from the state of Israel point of view, it is unacceptable," Mofaz told the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "Our estimation is that already by (2009) Iran will reach enrichment capability and as soon as 2010 will have option to reach (uranium production) at military levels," he said in broken English. He charged that Iran was playing for time in talks aimed at halting uranium enrichment with the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain -- the permanent UN Security Council members -- and Germany, the so-called P5-plus-1. "One thing is clear is Iranians are continuing their policy of buying time and so far they are succeeding," he said. "We all know time is a decisive element in our ability to change the picture and remove the Iranian threat," Mofaz said. "And the window of influence is becoming smaller and I believe about to close," he said. "It's a race against time and time is winning." He said he favored a diplomatic solution to the showdown with Iran over its nuclear program but refused to rule out all options, including the military option, to stop Iran.

by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Aug 3, 2008
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, a contender to become prime minister, urged the international community on Sunday to act quickly on new sanctions against Iran, saying that Tehran views any hesitation as weakness.

Speaking on CNN, Livni said that "time is of the essence" in challenging Iran's nuclear drive after Tehran let pass a US deadline this weekend to respond to an international package of incentives to freeze its uranium enrichment operations or face new sanctions.

"It is clear that Iran doesn't pay attention to talks, and this is a clear message to the international community to continue with real and effective sanctions," Livni said.

"The international community is being watched, not only by Iran, but also by Iran's neighbors. And when the international community shows hesitation, this is being perceived as weakness."

Livni expressed concern that if Iran is not challenged over its nuclear drive, which Western powers believe is aimed at producing nuclear weapons, then Iran's moderate neighbors are likely to end up its allies.

"We live in a neighborhood in which whether you beat the bully or join it," she said.

She called for quick agreement on a fourth round of international sanctions threatened by Washington if Tehran continues to spurn the proposals of the six powers in the negotiations, the United States, Russia, China, Germany, Britain and France.

"We need to understand that we need to act today in terms of sanctions. Sanctions can be effective, as long as the Iranians and the entire world understand that all the options are on the table. This is what we need to do today."

Livni meanwhile said Israeli-Palestinian peace talks remained on track despite Israel's internal political turmoil after embattled Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he would resign in September.

"I support and still support deeply the Annapolis process," said Livni, who is among the top contenders to replace Olmert as leader of the centrist Kadima party and prime minister of the Jewish state.

"We decided and promised to make all the efforts to reach a peace treaty until the end of the year. We are making all the efforts to do so," she said.

"But what is more important is now the understanding between Israelis and the Palestinians that we are on the right track."

"For them, subjects like the nuclear issue are pretexts. The key reason for the hostility of the enemies in the past 30 years against Iran is that they want us to pull back so that they can say we have given in," Ahmadinejad said.

"But the Iranian people will resist with force against the enemies," state television quoted him as saying.

The comments came as the United States on Friday set a weekend deadline for Iran to respond to an international offer to freeze its nuclear drive.

"We want and we expect a response this weekend," US State Department acting spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said.

But an EU diplomat said in Brussels that the European Union is in no rush for a response from Iran.

"There's no real limit," said the diplomat on condition of anonymity after Washington set the deadline. "We're in no rush" to have a response "in the next 24 hours."

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Thursday that there was no deadline and that his country had already replied.

Iran on July 4 handed major powers what it said was its "constructive and creative" response to their offer presented by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana in June aimed at persuading Tehran to halt sensitive nuclear work.

The package, drawn up by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, offers Tehran technology and negotiations if it suspends uranium enrichment which the West fears could be used to make atomic weapons.

Earlier the United States said that world powers would discuss their next move on Wednesday and indicated that Tehran faced a fourth set of UN Security Council sanctions if it failed to give a positive response.

Iran's demand for more information came in the form of a letter to EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, which was also circulated late Tuesday to the five UN Security Council permanent members and Germany who are seeking to persuade Tehran to end its uranium enrichment programme.

The Iranian authorities "say there will be a response but that clarification is needed on certain points of the offer," the European source told AFP.

"They've hit the ball back. We must analyse whether it's just another way to gain time or if it's serious," she added.

A source with Iran's Supreme National Security Council told AFP that a message had been handed over to Solana, who has been leading negotiations on behalf of the six -- Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.

But the source, who asked not to be identified, confirmed that the message did not contain the final response that world powers had been awaiting.

"The message delivered today is not Iran's response to the six countries," the source said.

The six world powers had offered Iran negotiations on a package of technological incentives if it suspends the sensitive process of uranium enrichment, which the West fears could be used to make nuclear weapons.

Tehran has steadfastly refused to suspend its uranium enrichment activities, which it says are only aimed at producing fuel for nuclear power for a growing population.

The United States said Iran faced "additional measures" if it did not respond clearly, indicating it risked further UN Security Council sanctions.

"If we are not going to receive a clear response, a clear message from them, we are going to have no choice but to pursue additional measures," US State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said.

Negotiators from the six powers have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday, the spokesman said.

Along with the threat of further sanctions, Washington has warned that the option of military action against Iran remains open if Tehran sticks to its defiant line.

Amid the continued tensions, Iran said on Monday it had successfully test-fired an anti-ship missile with a range of 300 kilometres (180 miles) that would allow it to close the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman.

"Given the equipment our armed forces have, an indefinite blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be very easy," said the commander of the elite Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari.

But Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said that any move by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz would be "self-defeating" because its economy is so heavily dependent on oil revenues.

"They have a very weak economy at this point which depends almost entirely on their oil revenue," he noted.

Libyan leader Moamer Kadhafi, who has sought closer relations with the West after abandoning his own nuclear ambitions in 2003, described Iran as "arrogant" and predicted it would not withstand any US attack.

OPEC member Iran is the world's fourth-biggest crude oil producer and traders fear supply disruption from the Islamic republic if tension is further heightened.

However world oil prices -- which have been driven to record levels by worries over a possible military strike on Iran -- slumped beneath 119 dollars a barrel on US economic news.

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Any Iranian attempt to close Gulf 'self-defeating': Pentagon
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Aug 5, 2008
The Pentagon said Tuesday that any move by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz would be "self-defeating" because its weak economy is so heavily dependent on oil revenues.

"Shutting down the Strait, closing down the Persian Gulf, would be sort of a self-defeating exercise," said Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary. "That doesn't say anything about whether we tolerate such a thing to happen."

Morrell's comments came in response to a warning by the new head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards that Iran could easily close the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil passes.

General Mohammad Ali Jafari announced Monday that Iran has successfully tested an anti-ship missile with a range of 300 kilometers (180 miles.)

"And given the equipment our armed forces have, an indefinite blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be very easy," Jafari said on state television.

Morrell argued, however, that Iran would be the first to be hurt if it closed the Gulf.

"I don't think it is Iran's interest to shut down the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, or attempt to do so," he told reporters.

"They have a very weak economy at this point which depends almost entirely on their oil revenue," he said.

When Israel's Shaul Mofaz talks, Washington listens, very carefully. "It is a race against time," he said this week, "and time is winning." The Iranian-born Mofaz, 60, is now deputy prime minister. He came to Israel at the age of 9, when his parents left their native Iran. He took part in the legendary 1976 rescue mission in Uganda and fought in the Six-Day War, the Yom Kippur War and the 1982 Lebanon War. From paratroop brigade commander, Mofaz kept moving up. Superhawk Binyamin Netanyahu, when he was prime minister in 1998, appointed Mofaz the 16th chief of staff of Israel's armed forces. He served under four different Israeli prime ministers, and in 1997 Ariel Sharon appointed him defense minister. He may be Israel's next prime minister.

In Washington last week, Mofaz's private utterances and public statements were parsed for hidden intentions. Bush administration interlocutors made clear that diplomacy -- and economic sanctions -- still had many arrows in its quiver. But three sets of sanctions voted by the U.N. Security Council are weak, designed as they were to keep China and Russia in the loop. Today, these two budding superpowers would veto stronger medicine.

China is now Iran's major trading partner. Russia is selling Iran anti-aircraft systems to defend nuclear installations against an Israeli aerial attack. The financial sanctions Mofaz said must be tightened were already being circumvented through the city-state of Dubai, the new Hong Kong in the Persian Gulf, where Middle Eastern headquarters for major U.S., European and Japanese corporations, and New York and Washington law firms, are now located.

Dubai is also a major entrepot port where goods arrive from all over the world for the planet's most modern city, which has its tallest building, twice the height of the Empire State Building. Some 300,000 Iranians, mostly businessmen, live there, and scores of diesel-powered fast dhows run shuttle services to Iran, 100 miles away. Watertight sanctions against Iran in Dubai would quickly incur the wrath of the reigning Maktoum dynasty, which is hell-bent on making Dubai the best and finest of everything in the world.

Money is no object. The six Gulf Cooperation Council countries' oil revenues will be cresting at $600 billion next year. Dubai is one of seven emirates in the United Arab Emirates, whose oil revenues this year are estimated at $100 billion. Construction projects now under way in Dubai total $300 billion. All the "Gulfies" are anxious to remain on good terms with the mullahs in Tehran. Respectfully fearful of Iran, the last thing they want is to become a target of Tehran's formidable asymmetrical retaliatory capabilities against American targets following Israeli raids against their nuclear installations.

That was the message Dubai's top Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum delivered to President Bush at Camp David this week.

Hezbollah, Iran's auxiliary in Lebanon, according to Mofaz, already has rockets and missiles that cover most of Israel. One Iranian nuclear weapon in the nose cone of the mullahs' latest medium-range ballistic missile aimed at Tel Aviv would effectively wipe out the state of Israel. Iran with a nuclear weapon, said Mofaz, will "deepen and strengthen the global terrorist threat." Therefore, he explained, Israel will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear capability, "because Israel is not prepared to face a second Holocaust." Holocaust, of course, evokes the memory of Hitler's "final solution" that killed 6 million Jews and is now seen in Israel as a mammoth Iranian sword of Damocles.

From right to left, the prevailing mood in Israel is hawkish and uncompromising on Iran's nuclear ambitions. Even liberal newspapers like Haaretz don't see a way out unless Iran abandons uranium enrichment and opens itself up to meticulous international inspection.

The mullahs' aim, therefore, with no ifs or buts, is what Mofaz called "the destruction of Israel." In 1933, when Adolf Hitler came to power, the world ignored the paranoid rants in "Mein Kampf" about the Jewish peril, a preview of coming horrors Hitler published nine years before. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's inflammatory utterances on the stump, say Jews, are tantamount to talking about a final solution for the Jewish homeland.

Book-ending Mofaz in Washington were Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, rivals to succeed the disgraced, corrupt Ehud Olmert, who said he would resign next month. On Iran, there was hardly a sliver of daylight between the four on Israel's "existential crisis."

In early June the Israeli air force conducted the largest exercise in its 60-year history, flying more than 100 fighter bombers more than 900 miles -- the roundtrip distance to some of Iran's principal nuclear targets -- with the assistance of midair refueling tankers and helicopters to rescue downed pilots.

The Bush administration's national security team (minus Vice President Dick Cheney) argues the clock won't run out until Jan. 20, 2009, when Bush turns the White House over to John McCain or Barack Obama. Some U.S. players maintain Iran is not a political monolith and the clock should be reset to the results of Iran's presidential contest next June, when a less doctrinaire leader may emerge. Meanwhile, the United States has belatedly engaged Iran with the four other permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany, and is opening a consular section in Tehran.

Hopefully cooler Israeli heads will prevail. An Israeli attack against Iran will automatically unleash the fury of the theocracy against U.S. targets in the Gulf, mining and sinking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most vital oil route, with volleys of missiles. This would automatically involve the United States, which is why some Israeli hawks don't worry about the red light flashing in Washington.

If polls show John McCain with a substantial lead in the fall, a new Israeli government, led by Mofaz or, following elections, by Netanyahu, will know it can count on U.S. support. Sen. Joe Lieberman, a close friend and adviser to McCain, agrees with the neocon refrain: The only thing worse than bombing Iran is an Iranian bomb.

"They've deeply understood that Iran's peaceful nuclear programme will never be halted and of course they have no choice but to keep on talking to Iran," Ahmadinejad was quoted as telling Bouteflika.

"Despite threats and sanctions by a number of big powers, our nation is robust and is continuing living its own life as they cannot put obstacles in the path of our progress," Ahmadinejad added, according to the state run television website.

Bouteflika on Sunday started a visit to Iran at the head of a high-level political and economic team of ministers.

Bouteflika, who last visited the Islamic republic in 2003, is expected to meet Monday with Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and parliament speaker Ali Larijani. He is to leave Tehran on Tuesday.

Iran is facing a possible fourth round of UN Security Council sanctions over its refusal to halt enrichment, a process which makes nuclear fuel but also the core of an atomic bomb.

Algeria is a member of the Non-Aligned Movement, which supports Iran's civilian nuclear activities, feared by the West as a cover for developing nuclear weapons.

Ahmadinejad's comments came as Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana agreed to pursue talks aimed at resolving the nuclear crisis, state television reported.

Six major powers have offered Iran a package of incentives in return for a freeze in uranium enrichment activities, to no avail until now.

Tehran has long denied seeking the atomic bomb, insisting that as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty it has the right to develop nuclear technology to generate electricity for its growing population.

Analysis: Is war in the (Gulf) air?

The USS Ronald Reagan and its Carrier Strike Group Seven are among the US naval forces heading towards waters of the Gulf.

by Claude Salhani
Washington (UPI) Aug 11, 2008
No sooner had Operation Brimstone ended -- a mega joint U.S., British and French naval exercise held in the Atlantic Ocean where the allies practiced enforcing an eventual blockade on Iran -- when, according to numerous reports, the armada set sail for the Gulf waters -- and a potential showdown with Iran.

The move comes shortly after the European Union issued a decree Friday authorizing the imposition of stronger sanctions against Iran, on top of existing U.N. Security Council sanctions, over its refusal to back down from its controversial nuclear program.

Leading the joint naval task force is the nuclear-powered carrier the USS Theodore Roosevelt and its Carrier Strike Group Two; besides its 80-plus combat planes the Roosevelt normally transports, it is carrying an additional load of French Naval Rafale fighter jets from the French carrier Charles de Gaulle, currently in dry dock.

Also reported heading toward Iran is another nuclear-powered carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan and its Carrier Strike Group Seven; the USS Iwo Jima, the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal and a number of French warships, including the nuclear hunter-killer submarine Amethyste.

Once on site, the joint naval force in the Persian Gulf region will be joining two other U.S. naval battle groups already in position: the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Peleliu; the Lincoln with its carrier strike group and the latter with an expeditionary strike group.

Meanwhile, Tehran seems undeterred, saying it will not back down on its nuclear stance, regardless of the threat of stricter sanctions, an Iranian government spokesman said Sunday.

And a European diplomat was quoted as saying that Britain, the United States and France could impose sanctions that go beyond what is called for by the United Nations, in essence giving weight to the formidable armada currently heading toward Iran.

"It is important that our country is ready to insist on its rights under any conditions," Iranian spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham was quoted by the Iranian Students' News Agency. "Our stance would not change with sanctions or the threat of sanctions," added the spokesman.

Led by the United States and leading EU members Britain, France and Germany and supported by China and Russia, all have tried to persuade Iran to freeze its uranium enrichment program.

Expecting a formal reply from Iran, the six nations leading the charge against Iran's nuclear ambitions were disappointed when the much awaited reply was a non-committal one-page letter, despite a promise from Iran that it would provide a "clear response."

The deployment of the multinational naval task force is the largest show of military power from the United States and allied countries to assemble around the strategic waters of the Persian Gulf since the First and Second Gulf wars.

The object of the naval deployment would be to enforce an eventual blockade on Iran, if, as expected by many observers, current negotiations with the Islamic republic over its insistence to pursue enrichment of uranium yield no results.

For Iran, however, a naval blockade preventing it from importing refined oil would have devastating effects on its economy, virtually crippling the Islamic republic's infrastructure. Although Iran is a major oil producer and exporter, the country lacks refining facilities, having to re-import its own oil once refined.

Iran's oil -- both the exported crude as well as the returning refined product -- passes through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran on one side and the Sultanate of Oman -- a U.S. ally -- on the other. The strait is about 30 miles wide at its narrowest point, making it easy to control, but at the same time placing Western naval vessels within easy reach of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' fast-moving light craft which could be used by Iranian suicide bombers.

Iranian Parliamentary Deputy Alaeddin Boroujerdi said imposing new EU sanctions against the Islamic Republic will "damage" the West, Iran's Press TV reported. "Any measure by the European Union ahead of the end of talks between Iran and the five Security Council veto holders plus Germany will be unacceptable," Boroujerdi, the head of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, told the Islamic Republic News Agency. The Iranian MP said Iran and the EU enjoy a high level of trade and economic cooperation and added sanctions would have adverse consequences on their positive mutual ties.

Boroujerdi asked Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief, to hold a second round of talks with Iran.

Iran is now playing for time, hoping to ride out the remaining 160-plus days of the George W. Bush presidency. The question now is whether the Western powers will blink or call Iran's bluff.

(Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)

"The Iranian development and testing of rockets is troubling and raises further questions about their intentions," spokesman Gordon Johndroe said as US President George W. Bush spent time on his Texas ranch.

"This action and dual use possibilities for their ballistic missile program have been a subject of IAEA discussions and are inconsistent with their UN Security Council obligations," Johndroe said, referring to the International Atomic Energy Agency -- the UN nuclear watchdog.

He spoke after Tehran said it had sent a home-built rocket carrying a dummy satellite into space on Sunday, in a move that could further exacerbate tensions with the West over its nuclear drive.

"The Safir (Ambassador) rocket was successfully launched. All its systems ... are Iranian made," Reza Taghipour, head of Iran's space agency, told state television, adding that a "test satellite was put into orbit."

"We have paved the way for placing a satellite in space in future," state television said, showing images of the pre-dawn rocket launch.

Western governments suspect Iran is trying to build an atomic weapon and have voiced concern that the technology used in the Islamic republic's space program could be diverted to military use, claims denied by Tehran.

Sunday's development came amid an international standoff over Tehran's long-standing refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, a process which makes nuclear fuel but also the core of an atomic bomb.

Iran sparks US concern with satellite rocket launch

A picture taken on August 16, 2008 shows an Iranian flag fluttering in front of Iran's Safir Omid rocket, which is capable of carrying a satellite into orbit, before it's launch in a space station at an undisclosed location in the Islamic republic. Iran said on August 17 it had successfully launched the rocket, a move that could further exacerbate tensions with the West over its nuclear drive. Photo courtesy AFP.

by Staff Writers
Tehran (AFP) Aug 17, 2008
Iran said it had sent a rocket carrying a dummy satellite into space on Sunday, triggering fresh concern in Washington that the technology could be diverted to ballistic missiles.

The launch is likely to further exacerbate tensions with the West over its nuclear drive, which Iran's arch-foe Washington and its allies claim is a cover for atomic weapons amitions.

"The Safir (Ambassador) rocket was successfully launched. All its systems...are Iranian-made," Reza Taghipour, head of Iran's space agency, told state television, adding that a "test satellite was put into orbit."

"We have paved the way for placing a satellite in space in future," state television said, showing images of the pre-dawn rocket launch which was attended by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Western governments, already concerned over Iran's nuclear activities, have warned that the technology used in the Islamic republic's space programme could be diverted to military use, claims denied by Tehran.

"The Iranian development and testing of rockets is troubling and raises further questions about their intentions," White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

"This action and dual use possibilities for their ballistic missile program are inconsistent with their UN Security Council obligations."

A top Iranian official told AFP that state media reports that the country's first domestically-built satellite, called Omid or Hope, had been launched were not correct.

A defence ministry statement carried by the official news agency IRNA had said the rocket, "built by Iranian experts" was launched with Omid. But the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the media was mistaken.

Iran's Arabic-language state television broadcast footage of the rocket heading into space and graphics showing a satellite separating from a rocket.

Sunday's development comes amid an international standoff over Tehran's long-standing refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, a process which makes nuclear fuel but also the core of an atomic bomb.

Israel and its staunch ally the United States have never ruled out a military strike against Iran's nuclear sites, although currently Washington has said it is pursuing the diplomatic option.

On Sunday, Iran's air force commander said its fighter jets have been upgraded to allow them to fly 3,000 kilometres (1,860 miles) without refuelling which would put Israel easily within reach.

"We do not wish to attack another country... but we will defend ourselves should we be attacked," Brigadier General Ahmad Mighani added, without however mentioning Israel.

Ahmadinejad has made Iran's scientific development one of the main themes of his presidency, asserting that the country has reached a peak of progress despite sanctions and no longer needs to depend on foreign states for help.

"This satellite, the rocket and the launch station are entirely Iranian-built, achieved by particularly talented scientists and technicians," Ahmadinejad told reporters in Turkey last week, announcing that the satellite would be launched soon, IRNA said.

In February, Iran triggered international concern when it said it had sent a probe into space on the back of a rocket to prepare for a satellite launch, and announced the opening of its space station in a remote western desert.

Iran is risking a possible fourth round of UN sanctions after it failed to give a clear response to an incentives package offered by six major world powers in return for halting uranium enrichment.

Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, insists its nuclear work is aimed purely at generating electricity.

In February, the deputy head of Iran's space organisation said the Omid satellite would be put into orbit at an altitude of 650 kilometres (400 miles) above the earth, passing over Iran six times every 24 hours.

Iran has pursued a space programme for several years, and in October 2005 a Russian-made Iranian satellite named Sina-1 was put into orbit by a Russian rocket.

Sunday's launch came on the birth anniversary of eighth century Imam Mahdi, who vanished as a boy and who Shiites believe will return one day as the messiah.

"We have succeeded in upgrading the capabilities of our planes and have increased the range of these planes to 3,000 kilometres (1,860 miles) without refuelling," Brigadier General Ahmad Mighani was quoted as saying by the ISNA news agency.

"We do not wish to attack another country... but we will defend ourselves should we be attacked," he added, without however mentioning Israel.

Israel, which views the Islamic republic as its greatest threat, lies about 1,000 kilometres (620 miles) from the Iranian border.

Iran's claims about its military capabilities are often greeted with scepticism by Western experts and Mighani gave no details about how the upgrade was achieved.

In June, Israel conducted war games that were seen as a dress rehearsal for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, which are the subject of an ongoing row with the West.

Israel, the region's sole if undeclared nuclear armed power, along with its staunch ally the United States, is leading the campaign against Iran's atomic drive, which they suspect is aimed at developing weapons.

Iran, which testfired a number of missiles in war games in July, denies the allegations and says its nuclear drive is only aimed at providing energy for its growing population.

Iran has said on several occasions that should it be attacked, it would strike Israel using its Shahab-3 missiles which it says has a range of 2,000 kilometres (1,240 miles).

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said last week that the United States is at present opposed to any military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.

"The first satellite created by Iranian specialists will be orbited by an Iranian carrier rocket before the end of the next week," Iranian media quoted Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as saying.

He added that economic sanctions imposed by the United States against the Islamic Republic had a "favorable effect on the country's scientific progress."

According to Ahmadinejad, over 7,000 scientific inventions have been registered in Iran over the last few years.

In February Tehran successfully launched the Explorer-1 research rocket, which is reportedly capable of carrying a satellite into orbit, and unveiled the country's first domestically built satellite, named Omid, or Hope.

related report
Iran to orbit several satellites by 2010
Iran plans to send into orbit several domestic satellites by 2010, the head of the country's aerospace agency said on Monday.

Iranian state news agency IRNA reported on Sunday that an Iranian carrier rocket, Safir, had successfully orbited the country's first domestically built satellite, named Omid (Hope).

"We are currently working on a series of satellites that will be put into orbit within the next two years," Reza Taghipour said.

He said the satellites will aid natural disaster management programs and improve telecommunications.

The space official stressed that all of Iran's missile and space technology has been developed by national specialists, without foreign assistance.

Safir is Iran's first domestically made satellite carrier, capable of putting lightweight satellites into low earth orbit.

Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar also vowed that Iran will soon put its own satellite into orbit, after a dummy was sent into space in Sunday's rocket launch.

The development was likely to add to international concerns about Iran's nuclear programme, which Western nations fear could be a cover for ambitions to build the atomic bomb although Tehran insists its aims are peaceful.

State television said the Safir (Ambassador) rocket is capable of putting a "light satellite into low earth orbit" between 250 and 500 kilometres (150 and 300 miles) above the earth.

It showed footage of the rocket launch, saying that the Safir is about 22 metres (72 feet) long, with a diameter of 1.25 metres (a little over four feet) and weighing more than 26 tonnes.

Iran's most powerful military missile, the Shahab-3, has a diameter of 1.30 metres and measures 17 metres in length.

Sunday's launch raised concerns in Washington that the rocket technology could be diverted to military use.

"The Iranian development and testing of rockets is troubling and raises further questions about their intentions," White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said.

"This action and dual use possibilities for their ballistic missile programme have been a subject of IAEA discussions and are inconsistent with their UN Security Council obligations," he said, referring to the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

But the head of the space agency in Israel, which considers the Islamic republic its greatest threat, played down the launch.

"Iran still has a long way to go as far as satellites are concerned and it deliberately exaggerates its air and space successes in order to dissuade Israel or the United States from attacking its nuclear sites," Yitzhak Ben Israel told public radio.

"It is clear that for years Iran has had Shihab-3 ballistic missiles which put Israel within its reach. But the threat posed by Iran comes from its nuclear programme and not from its satellites or ballistic missiles."

Initial state media reports in Iran said that the rocket had carried the nation's first home-built satellite Omid (Hope) but this was later denied by officials who said only a test satellite had gone up.

However, the defence minister said on Monday: "Iranian experts can put the national satellite into orbit in the not too distant future."

In February, Iran triggered international concern when it said it had sent a probe into space on the back of a rocket to prepare for a satellite launch, and announced the opening of its space station in a remote western desert.

At that time, officials had said the Omid satellite would be sent into space in May or June.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has made Iran's scientific development one of the main themes of his presidency, asserting that the country has reached a peak of progress despite international sanctions and no longer needs to depend on foreign states for help.

However, Iran's claims about its military and technological capabilities are often greeted with scepticism by Western experts.

Reza Taghipour, the head of Iran's space agency, also unveiled plans on Monday for more satellites, including one to be built with and for Islamic countries, state television reported.

He said construction of the Besharat (Good News) satellite would begin in Iran once it had financing from the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, adding that high costs were an obstacle to space developmment.

He also said Iran hoped to broadcast television programmes via its own satellite in the next three years and said seven universities were also working on their own small satellites.

Iran has pursued a space programme for several years, and in October 2005 a Russian-made Iranian satellite named Sina-1 was put into orbit by a Russian rocket.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad arrived in Russia Wednesday on a two-day visit to discuss bilateral relations and regional developments, in particular the situation in the Middle East and Iraq.

"We are ready, and Dmitry Medvedev has confirmed this, to review a Syrian request to purchase new types of weapons," Sergei Lavrov said following the meeting between Medvedev and Assad.

"We will supply Syria primarily with weapons of a defensive nature that will not disturb the strategic balance in the region," he added.

In an interview with Russian business daily Kommersant Assad said before his trip: "Our position is we are ready to cooperate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its security... I think Russia really has to think of the response it will make when it finds itself closed in a circle."

Israeli media reported on Monday that Russia was planning to deploy Iskander surface missiles in Syria and its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, in response to a proposed U.S. missile shield in Central Europe and arm sales by the U.S. and Israeli to Georgia.

When asked if Syria, a major importer of Russian weapons, would agree to consider the Russian air defense offer, Assad said: "In principle, yes. We have not yet thought about it." The issue of installing Iskander missile-defense systems had been raised by Syria several years ago he added.

First, Moscow hosted MVSV-2008, an international show of weapons and military equipment. Then King Abdullah II of Jordan visited the show, met with designers and producers and had a discussion with President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

A few days previously, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria had flown in for talks with Dmitry Medvedev. The press and television in Amman, Damascus and Tel Aviv made much of the events, especially the Syrian visit.

Israeli media claimed Bashar al-Assad had arrived on a purchasing spree, and his main aim was to buy the Iskander-E tactical missile system, in addition to Pantsyr-S1 and Buk-M2 ground-to-air missile systems and Su-30, MiG-29SMT and MiG-31E fighters.

The Iskander missile had been promised to Damascus in 2001, and only a personal request by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to former President Vladimir Putin put a stop to its sale to Syria.

But now that Israel has helped to train Georgian commandos and equip the Georgian army that attacked South Ossetia, Moscow is within its rights to "repay the debt" and provide Damascus with the system, the media in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv said.

Yet Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters during al-Assad's visit that Moscow "is ready to supply Syria only with defensive weapons, ones that do not upset the balance of strength in the region." This means Syria, as Moscow promised to Tel Aviv, will not get the Iskander system.

Regarding ground- and air-based air defense units, including interceptor fighters, they are not considered offensive armaments and are immune from Russian-Israeli agreements.

It is another matter that military technical cooperation between Moscow and Damascus needs re-evaluating. Syria owes Russia $3 billion for weapons supplied to it, and this on top of Damascus' $10 billion debt for armaments sold in Soviet times which Moscow forgave, incidentally, for a pledge to spend another $2 billion on arms purchases from Russia.

Contracts currently being negotiated include Pantsyr and Buk missile systems, as well as Sukhoi and MiG fighters, but not Iskander missiles. The parties are also discussing the expansion of a Russian naval maintenance base at the Syrian port of Tartus.

Any movement of Black Sea Fleet forces from Sevastopol to Syria, as some Middle East publications suggest, is, of course, out of the question. But a supply and maintenance center for warships on missions in the Mediterranean will come in handy for Moscow.

In the Soviet era, the Soviet Navy's 5th Mediterranean Squadron made full use of this port.

King Abdullah's visit to Moscow did not produce as much excitement as the trip by Bashar al-Assad to Sochi, perhaps because problems between Jordan and Israel are not as serious as between Tel Aviv and Damascus. Discussions mainly focused on military-technical cooperation between Moscow and Amman, rather than on Middle East issues. This cooperation is now on the rise, Dmitry Medvedev said during the meeting.

"Our relations are making good headway, this is our third meeting in six months and that points to the intensity of our contacts and good-neighbor relations," the president said, opening the discussion.

"Trade between our countries grows steadily, although both countries would like to see it develop more quickly," Medvedev said.

Jordan lives up to these words. In recent years it has bought from Russia two Il-76MF military transport planes worth a combined $100 million, and six light multi-role Ka-226 helicopters (at an estimated cost of $25 million), which will be assembled in Jordan under license. The two countries have even set up a joint venture, Oboronprom Middle East, to assemble 15 to 20 Ka helicopters a year.

Plans are also under way to set up a joint venture for the production of RPG-32 Hashim multi-caliber grenade launchers. The launcher was developed by the Bazalt Moscow State Research and Production Enterprise at the suggestion of Abdullah himself.

It is designed to engage armored vehicles and defended gun posts from a distance of up to 700 meters with 72mm and 105mm grenades. It will be produced in quantity both in Russia and in Jordan.

Trial specimens have already been sent to Amman and were highly praised. A manufacturing license contract is expected to be signed soon. Jordan has received a special $350 million credit from Russia for this purpose, although the sum is also supposed to cover repairs and upgrading of weapons previously supplied to Amman.

Other equipment includes armored personnel carriers, fighting infantry vehicles, Kornet anti-tank missile systems, Igla ground-to-air missiles, and weapons for special operations - reconnaissance, sabotage and protection of the royal palace.

King Abdullah is a former commando. He is an arms expert, and his buying of Russia's VSS silent sniper rifles and PSS silent pistols is good publicity for Russian arms-makers.

It is not impossible that after his visit to Moscow, Amman will take delivery of Pantsyr-S1 ground-to-air missile systems, which are considered today among the most effective close-range air defense systems.

Russian weapons appeal not only to buyers in the Middle East. On August 23, the Russian president sent a message to President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua, raising the matter of military-technical cooperation between the two countries.

"Russia is interested above all in trade and economic cooperation between security-related agencies," the Russian leader told his Nicaraguan counterpart. "Military-technical cooperation between us offers a promising future."

This means that the military equipment once supplied to Nicaragua by the Soviet Union and which needs repairing, upgrading or replacing could be replaced with more advanced weapons, if Managua is willing. And Managua is willing, as is clear from the close ties that exist between Ortega and Hugo Chavez. The Venezuelan leader is very pleased with Russian weapons.

The target mentioned at the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, of exporting $8 billion worth of Russian arms supplies in 2008, compared with $6.2 billion in 2007, does not seem too far-fetched.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

Commentary: Disturbed nukes?

Zardari spent more than 11 of the past 20 years in Pakistani prisons on corruption charges, during which he said he was tortured. Saltiel's diagnosis said Zardari's imprisonment had left him suffering from "emotional instability," as well as memory and concentration problems. "I do not foresee any improvement in these issues for at least a year," Saltiel wrote. That year passed three years ago.

by Arnaud De Borchgrave
Washington (UPI) Aug 27, 2008
Coalition politics is "always a messy process," said Pakistan's ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani, as he explained the helter-skelter confusion that followed the exit of strongman Pervez Musharraf. After nine years of unchallenged power, Musharraf had taken a leaf from France's late President Charles de Gaulle's playbook, which held "the graveyards of the world are full of indispensable people," and he got out of Dodge ahead of the impeachment posse of political vigilantes out to depose him.

The country's two leading politicians, now in an uneasy, distrustful coalition, had powerful reasons to impeach Musharraf. Nawaz Sharif was himself deposed as prime minister by Musharraf in a bloodless 1999 coup. Asif Zardari, Benazir Bhutto's widower, had been kept in prison by Musharraf on a slew of corruption charges, none of which, he says today, led to a conviction.

At least not yet. As a test of the coalition's solidity, Nawaz demanded the return of the 60 judges and the head of the Supreme Court dismissed by Musharraf under emergency rule last November. But Zardari demurred. He feared that once restored to the bench, the old judiciary, whose anti-American proclivities are well-known, would dust off some of the corruption charges against him now that he is seen as Washington's new man in Islamabad.

So the messy coalition of Pakistan's two principal parties fell apart before it had even begun to govern. And Zardari is now in line to get elected president Sept. 6 by a majority of both federal houses of Parliament and the four provincial assemblies. Allied with a few smaller parties, the Pakistan People's Party, the country's largest, which Zardari inherited from his wife after she was assassinated in December, has enough votes to give him the same executive powers held by Musharraf.

If all goes well -- or badly, depending on one's viewpoint -- Zardari, who was suffering from serious mental illnesses, according to court documents filed by his New York doctors, will become president of one of the world's eight nuclear powers.

In court documents examined by the Financial Times, Philip Saltiel, a New York City psychiatrist, said the widower of two-term Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was diagnosed with a major depressive disorder, which included post-traumatic stress disorder, in medical reports that spanned more than two years.

Zardari spent more than 11 of the past 20 years in Pakistani prisons on corruption charges, during which he said he was tortured. Saltiel's diagnosis said Zardari's imprisonment had left him suffering from "emotional instability," as well as memory and concentration problems. "I do not foresee any improvement in these issues for at least a year," Saltiel wrote. That year passed three years ago.

According to the FT, Stephen Reich, a New York psychologist, wrote Zardari was suffering from high anxiety, which led to thoughts about suicide. Zardari knew about the diagnoses, as he had used them to argue for the postponement of an English High Court case in which the Pakistani government was suing him for corruption against his U.K. assets.

Corruption charges were dropped in Pakistan last March after Musharraf interceded for the sake of national reconciliation. Shortly thereafter, all charges were also dropped in the United Kingdom, Spain and Switzerland.

In prison, Zardari's friends say, he was surrounded by fear as there were several attempts to kill him. But recent medical examinations and his Pakistani doctors have certified him "mentally stable and medically fit to run for political office, free of any of his previous symptoms." His friends say they were impressed to see the man long known in Pakistan as "Mister 10 percent" go through the trauma of his wife's assassination and still hold his family close together in such a trying time.

Pakistan's National Accountability Bureau once lined up 62 witnesses and 18,000 pages of testimony against Zardari's alleged corrupt practices. Typical of many cases was the one filed before the Lahore High Court charging that Zardari, in collusion with others, "obtained illegal gratification and undue pecuniary advantage in the form of commissions and kickbacks in the purchase" of foreign tractors.

It was Zardari's increasingly lucrative deals that prompted President Farooq Leghari to dismiss Mrs. Bhutto and her government in 1996. Her husband was then her "minister of investment."

Today, the 55-year-old Zardari is Pakistan's most prominent political leader with the largest number of seats in Parliament. As president, he would be the commander in chief, hire and fire prime ministers at will, be in charge of the all-powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency -- and Pakistan's nuclear deterrent, which would remain under army control.

Meanwhile, taking advantage of the political melodrama in Islamabad, Pakistan's Taliban terrorists were spilling out of the tribal agencies on the Afghan border and roaming at will the North-West Frontier province. The economy is in shambles with inflation at 30 percent -- and food prices rising even faster. Another wing of the Taliban movement, dedicated to Afghanistan, was edging ever closer to the capital of Kabul, now secured by German and Belgian soldiers under NATO command, and the Afghan army.

The country's two leading politicians, now in an uneasy, distrustful coalition, had powerful reasons to impeach Musharraf. Nawaz Sharif was himself deposed as prime minister by Musharraf in a bloodless 1999 coup. Asif Zardari, Benazir Bhutto's widower, had been kept in prison by Musharraf on a slew of corruption charges, none of which, he says today, led to a conviction.

At least not yet. As a test of the coalition's solidity, Nawaz demanded the return of the 60 judges and the head of the Supreme Court dismissed by Musharraf under emergency rule last November. But Zardari demurred. He feared that once restored to the bench, the old judiciary, whose anti-American proclivities are well-known, would dust off some of the corruption charges against him now that he is seen as Washington's new man in Islamabad.

So the messy coalition of Pakistan's two principal parties fell apart before it had even begun to govern. And Zardari is now in line to get elected president Sept. 6 by a majority of both federal houses of Parliament and the four provincial assemblies. Allied with a few smaller parties, the Pakistan People's Party, the country's largest, which Zardari inherited from his wife after she was assassinated in December, has enough votes to give him the same executive powers held by Musharraf.

If all goes well -- or badly, depending on one's viewpoint -- Zardari, who was suffering from serious mental illnesses, according to court documents filed by his New York doctors, will become president of one of the world's eight nuclear powers.

In court documents examined by the Financial Times, Philip Saltiel, a New York City psychiatrist, said the widower of two-term Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto was diagnosed with a major depressive disorder, which included post-traumatic stress disorder, in medical reports that spanned more than two years.

Zardari spent more than 11 of the past 20 years in Pakistani prisons on corruption charges, during which he said he was tortured. Saltiel's diagnosis said Zardari's imprisonment had left him suffering from "emotional instability," as well as memory and concentration problems. "I do not foresee any improvement in these issues for at least a year," Saltiel wrote. That year passed three years ago.

According to the FT, Stephen Reich, a New York psychologist, wrote Zardari was suffering from high anxiety, which led to thoughts about suicide. Zardari knew about the diagnoses, as he had used them to argue for the postponement of an English High Court case in which the Pakistani government was suing him for corruption against his U.K. assets.

Corruption charges were dropped in Pakistan last March after Musharraf interceded for the sake of national reconciliation. Shortly thereafter, all charges were also dropped in the United Kingdom, Spain and Switzerland.

In prison, Zardari's friends say, he was surrounded by fear as there were several attempts to kill him. But recent medical examinations and his Pakistani doctors have certified him "mentally stable and medically fit to run for political office, free of any of his previous symptoms." His friends say they were impressed to see the man long known in Pakistan as "Mister 10 percent" go through the trauma of his wife's assassination and still hold his family close together in such a trying time.

Pakistan's National Accountability Bureau once lined up 62 witnesses and 18,000 pages of testimony against Zardari's alleged corrupt practices. Typical of many cases was the one filed before the Lahore High Court charging that Zardari, in collusion with others, "obtained illegal gratification and undue pecuniary advantage in the form of commissions and kickbacks in the purchase" of foreign tractors.

It was Zardari's increasingly lucrative deals that prompted President Farooq Leghari to dismiss Mrs. Bhutto and her government in 1996. Her husband was then her "minister of investment."

Today, the 55-year-old Zardari is Pakistan's most prominent political leader with the largest number of seats in Parliament. As president, he would be the commander in chief, hire and fire prime ministers at will, be in charge of the all-powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency -- and Pakistan's nuclear deterrent, which would remain under army control.

Meanwhile, taking advantage of the political melodrama in Islamabad, Pakistan's Taliban terrorists were spilling out of the tribal agencies on the Afghan border and roaming at will the North-West Frontier province. The economy is in shambles with inflation at 30 percent -- and food prices rising even faster. Another wing of the Taliban movement, dedicated to Afghanistan, was edging ever closer to the capital of Kabul, now secured by German and Belgian soldiers under NATO command, and the Afghan army.

Iran general says Israel too vulnerable to attack

General Mohammad Ali Jafari. Photo courtesy AFP.

by Staff Writers
Tehran (AFP) Aug 27, 2008
The head of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, said on Wednesday that Israel is too vulnerable to Iran's longer-range missiles to dare launch an attack.

"Our strategic assessment shows that if the Zionist regime took action, whether alone or with the United States, in minimal time all of its territory would be vulnerable because this country lacks strategic depth and lies within the range of Iranian missiles," the Mehr news agency quoted him as saying.

"Iran's ballistic capabilities are such that the Zionist regime with all the means at its disposal has no way of countering them," the general added.

In recent months several Israeli politicians have talked of the possibility of a preemptive military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities to avoid any possibility of Tehran acquiring an atomic weapon.

Iran has responded by threatening retaliatory strikes with its Shahab-3 missiles which have a nominal range of 2,000 kilometres (1,250 miles) -- enough to reach Israel.

"In the event of an attack against against Iran, the Israelis know that with the capablities that the Islamic world and the Shiite world have in the region, they will suffer deadly strikes," Jafari said, alluding to the Shiite militant group Hezbollah across Israel's northern border with Lebanon.

He said an attack against Iran could come only from the United States and warned that in that event "our riposte will be swift, tough and unimaginable."

He said that the presence of US forces all around Iran's borders, in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gulf, made them too vulnerable to reprisal attacks.

Israel won't allow Iranian nukes

Israel has put plans for a unilateral military strike against Iran into high gear, Israel's daily Ma'ariv reported.

A government committee is preparing a contingency plan to attack Iran, should diplomatic efforts to derail Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program fail, the paper reported.

Ephraim Sneh, a Labor party lawmaker, has sent an eight-point document to both U.S. presidential candidates, saying, "There is no government in Jerusalem that would ever reconcile itself to a nuclear Iran. When it is clear Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons, an Israeli military strike to prevent this will be seriously considered."

Sneh suggested the window of opportunity for non-military options to stop Iran from going nuclear is 9 to 12 months.

The discovery of a spy ring, the second in a decade, also reveals the existence of deep-cover or sleeper agents from the communist neighbor, even when the two Koreas were engaged in brisk cross-border exchanges backed by two rounds of summits between their leaders.

Seoul's intelligence agency and prosecutors said they apprehended a female North Korean spy posing as a defector, who had been handing over sensitive military information from the South to her communist homeland.

Won Jong Hwa, 35, is suspected of collecting information, including photographs and locations of key military installations and weapons systems, partly by offering sexual favors to military officers. One of her lovers, identified as a 26-year-old army captain, was detained for offering classified information to Won even after he found out she was a North Korean spy.

After obtaining information in South Korea, Won handed it over to North Korean agents in China. She frequently traveled to China and delivered to North Korean intelligence agents there the name cards of more than 100 South Korean officers, whose e-mail accounts are said to have been hacked into from China.

Won was first dispatched to China, where she was commissioned to kidnap North Korean refuge-seekers in China for repatriation, and South Korean businessmen to the North.

In a bid to reach Seoul, Won married a South Korean worker in China, disguising herself as a Korean resident in China. She divorced her husband immediately after entering the South in October 2001, and falsely reported to Seoul's authorities that she was a defector from the North, according to investigators.

In the South, Won was allowed to give anti-communist lectures to the military, and she used the occasions to make contact with army officers. She engaged in romantic relationships with several South Korean officers to get military information.

Her mission also included locating Hwang Jang Yop, the highest-ranking North Korean official ever to take asylum in Seoul, and other anti-communist activists in the South, and possibly assassinate them.

Hwang, who had served as secretary of the North's ruling Workers' Party in charge of foreign policy, has led a campaign against the communist regime in Pyongyang since his defection to Seoul in 1997.

Won was ordered to murder two people "with links to" Seoul's spy agency with poison-tipped needles, but she failed.

These assassination instructions reminded South Koreans of the mysterious killing of Ri Han Yong, who defected to Seoul while studying in Moscow. Lee, a nephew of Song Hye Rim, a deceased wife of the North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, was shot and killed in 1997, probably by North Korean agents.

Won passed the military information to North Korea via her senior agent and stepfather, who was also disguised as a refugee from the North. The 63-year-old stepfather, identified only by his family name of Kim, entered the South in 2006 via Cambodia. He also has been detained.

Kim is a relative of North Korea's No. 2 leader, Kim Yong Nam, chairman of the presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly. Investigators refused to give further details about Kim, who is considered to have played a central role in the spy ring in the South.

The spy agency said more North Korean spies might be mixed with North Korean defectors. Some 14,000 North Koreans have resettled in the South since the end of the Korean War in 1953, with the number growing rapidly in recent years.

About 2,700 of them are believed to have left for other countries, including the United States, according to a Seoul-based human rights group. They may include espionage agents.

"There had been suspicion that spies may mingle with North Korean defectors," Kim Kyung-soo, a senior prosecutor, told reporters. "The suspicions have turned into reality for the first time with this case," Kim said.

The arrest of Won and her stepfather marked the second discovery of an alleged North Korean spy ring in South Korea in the past 10 years, when liberal presidents in Seoul pushed for the "sunshine" policy of peaceful engagement with the North.

In 2006 five spies, including a Korean-American businessman, were arrested in "one of the biggest spy cases." The spies, using a base in China, passed to the North "national secrets" from the South, including the movements of U.S. troops and the backgrounds of hundreds of politicians, among other things.

But there have been accusations that the spy agency toned down this case, so as not to upset the detente with the North.

Seoul's former spy chiefs played high-profile roles in arranging the two inter-Korean summits, in 2000 and 2007, both held in Pyongyang -- sparking criticism that they acted as if they were diplomats.

On the strong wave of cross-border reconciliation fever, there were more and more North Korea sympathizers in the South, including politicians, businessmen and civic activists. Many activists contacted North Koreans and visited the communist country without government approval.

But conservative President Lee Myung-bak, who took office in February 2008, has overhauled the spy agency to boost its North Korea intelligence-gathering role and its efforts to crack down on possible deep-cover or sleeper agents from the North.

"This case shows that North Korea has never changed and is still stepping up its policy of trying to communize the South and spreading deep into our society," Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee said, calling for the defense intelligence agency to step up anti-espionage operations.

Iran warns any attack would start 'world war'
by Staff Writers
Tehran (AFP) Aug 30, 2008
A senior Iranian military commander has warned that any US or Israeli attack on the Islamic republic would start a new world war, the state news agency IRNA reported on Saturday.

"Any aggression against Iran will start a world war," deputy chief of staff for defence publicity, Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri, said in a statement carried by the agency.

Iran is under international pressure to halt uranium enrichment, a process which lies at the core of fears about Iran's nuclear programme as it can make nuclear fuel as well as the fissile core of an atom bomb.

"The unrestrained greed of the US leadership and global Zionism... is gradually leading the world to the edge of a precipice," Jazayeri said, citing the unrest in Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan and Georgia.

"It is evident that if such a challenge occurs, the fake and artificial regimes will be eliminated before anything," he said, without naming any countries.

Iran does not recognise Israel, which is often described by officials in Tehran as a "fake regime."

The United States and its staunch ally Israel, the region's sole if undeclared nuclear armed nation, accuse Iran of seeking atomic weapons under the guise of a civilian nuclear programme.

Iran has vehemently denied the allegations, insisting its nuclear drive is aimed solely at providing electricity for a growing population when its reserves of fossil fuels run out.

The United States has never ruled out military action against Iran over its defiance of international demands for an enrichment freeze, but so far is pursuing the diplomatic route with calls for more sanctions.

Iran has repeatedly vowed a crushing response to any attacks and it has flexed military muscles in recent years by holding war games and showing off an array of home-grown weaponry and missiles.

Another top military commander said Iran was prepared to "take the enemies off-guard" and would unveil more weapons in case of an attack.

"Some of the equipment of our armed forces have been announced but there are important things hidden whose effect would be shown on the day (of any attack)," deputy army commander Abdolrahim Mousavi told Fars news agency.

During war games in July which provoked international concern, aides to the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that Iran would target US bases and US ships in the Gulf as well as Israel if it was attacked.

Iran also test-fired its Shahab-3 missile which it says puts Israel within range.

Iran is under three sets of UN Security Council sanctions over its refusal to freeze enrichment and risks further sanctions for failing to give a clear response to an incentives package offered by six world powers in return for a halt to the sensitive work.

Iranian officials have repeatedly said they have no intention of freezing enrichment and that the country is currently operating about 4,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges and installing several thousand more.