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It may have rattled windows and raised dust, but the blast that toppled a towering symbol of North Korea's atom-bomb project was a mere blip on a world map where more and more states may "go nuclear" - or nearly so - in the years to come.

At a recent meeting of members of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the Ukrainian chairman sought to strike an upbeat note about the future, highlighting the "public and political momentum towards a world free of nuclear weapons."

Volodyrmyr Yelchenko was right: Statesmen as diverse as Henry Kissinger and Mikhail Gorbachev have taken up the cause of "nuclear abolition." And this year's U.S. presidential contenders both support a more favorable American stance toward arms control.

But other forces are pushing back. Renewed interest in nuclear energy, to stem global warming, is expected to give more states the technological building blocks for a bomb. The continuing revelations about the Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan's network, which reportedly had blueprints for a compact weapon, show that globalized nuclear smuggling is growing more sophisticated and dangerous.

As much as anything, the perpetuation of the exclusive club of "accepted" nuclear powers - from old hands America and Russia to newest members India and Pakistan - may lead others, frustrated with such a two-tier world, to consider challenging the doomsday cartel.

Even if North Korea follows through on Friday's destruction of the cooling tower at its Yongbyon complex and fully dismantles its weapons program, giving up its handful of bombs, it will still belong to another club of nuclear-capable states.

Those are the 40-plus countries with the scientists, engineers and infrastructure for building bombs - and in at least one other case, that of South Africa, a history of having done so.

About a dozen are nuclear "rollback" states, ranging from Sweden and Switzerland, which seriously researched the weapon option in the 1950s and 1960s and then pulled back, to Iraq under Saddam Hussein, which desperately tried, and failed, to produce a bomb before the 1991 Gulf war.

Rebecca Hersman, a proliferation expert at Washington's National Defense University, stresses that nuclear rollback is "a process, not an outcome." Those who have been there before could go that way again.

"Success in the past by no means assures success in the future," Hersman says. The dominoes could fall the other way.

Success in the future, the specialists say, depends heavily on success in "rolling back" North Korea and Iran, which is accused by Washington and others of clandestinely planning a bomb. Iran denies that, saying its atomic program is aimed at using nuclear reactors to generate electricity.

If North Korea balks at final disarmament, if Iran moves toward an atomic arsenal despite international pressure, some of their neighbors may reconsider the nuclear option.

South Korea, still technically at war with the north, had a secret nuclear weapons program it abandoned in the 1970s, under U.S. pressure. Hersman says its first-rate nuclear-power industry today puts Seoul in an excellent position to quickly build a bomb if it feels threatened.

Across the Sea of Japan, in the only nation to have suffered atomic bombings, the possibility of a made-in-Japan bomb was a taboo subject for a half-century. In recent years, however, as the North Korean threat loomed larger, Tokyo's leadership has spoken more openly of that option. Its leading-edge nuclear establishment is well equipped for it.

Taiwan, another Asian "rollback" state, launched a secret weapons program in the 1970s, as it watched U.S.-China relations thaw and feared losing its American nuclear shield. By the late 1980s, under U.S. pressure, it ended its flirtation with the ultimate weapon, but it's believed capable of quickly reviving the program if tensions heighten with nuclear-armed China.

In step with Iran's year-by-year advances in uranium enrichment, a process key to both nuclear power and bomb-making, Saudi Arabia and Tehran's other Arab rivals across the Persian Gulf have plunged into planning for nuclear power, with French and U.S. help. The Arabs' Gulf Cooperation Council has proposed its own regional uranium-enrichment operation.

In Egypt, last January's announcement of plans for its first nuclear power plant could signal something of a "bounceback" four decades after nationalist President Gamal Abdel Nasser briefly explored the idea of nuclear arms.

Those who monitor such developments don't predict rapidly falling dominoes - an impending "breakout" of new weapons states. Robert J. Einhorn, a former U.S. government arms-control specialist, notes that over the past 40 years more nations abandoned weapons programs than initiated them.

Instead, other countries may follow "rollback" state Brazil's example, positioning themselves as compliant with the Nonproliferation Treaty's ban on bombs, but equipping themselves with the power technology - enrichment centrifuges - that enable them "to move rapidly to weaponization if and when needed," as Einhorn says.

For some, near-nuclear may be near enough.

---

Charles J. Hanley has reported on nuclear-weapons issues for more than 20 years.

 

By CHARLES J. HANLEY AP Special Correspondent

TEHRAN, Iran - The commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned that Tehran would respond to an attack against it by barraging Israel with missiles and controlling a key oil passageway in the Persian Gulf, said a newspaper report published Saturday.

The report in the conservative Jam-e-Jam newspaper comes after the disclosure of a recent Israeli military exercise over the Mediterranean Sea that was seen as sending a message to Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions.

Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari said there were strong deterrents against striking Iran, including the country's missile power, the vulnerability of Israeli and U.S. forces in the region and the low probability of a successful attack.

Iran has spread its nuclear facilities across the country and has built key portions underground to protect it from airstrikes.

But Jafari warned that if attacked, Iran would strike back, including choking off the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a narrow outlet for oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf.

"Naturally, any country coming under attack will use all of its capacity and opportunities to confront the enemy. Given the main route for energy to exit the region, one of Iran's steps will definitely be to exercise control on the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz," Jafari told Jam-e-Jam, which is affiliated with Iran's state-run radio and television network.

In 2006, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, also threatened to disrupt the world's oil supply if the United States attacked Iran. Iran is the world's fourth largest oil producer. About 60 percent of the world's oil passes through the strait.

"Should a confrontation erupt between us and the enemy, the scope will definitely reach the oil issue. ... Oil prices will dramatically increase. This is one of the factors deterring the enemy from taking military action," Jafari was quoted as saying.

U.S. officials have suggested that the Israeli drill, conducted from May 28 to June 12, was a dress rehearsal for an Israeli strike.

But the Greek government, which took part in the exercise, rejected that assessment. And some observers have said the disclosure of the maneuvers was aimed at getting the international community to step up diplomatic pressure on Iran.

Just before the drill, Europe presented Tehran an offer of economic incentives to halt its enrichment of uranium.

Iran has not formally responded. Less than a week ago, the European Union named Iran's largest commercial bank, the Revolutionary Guards' chief and the head of the country's nuclear program as the targets of new sanctions imposed over Tehran's nuclear defiance.

The United States and Israel say Iran's nuclear program is intended to produce weapons - a claim Iran denies, saying its program is for peaceful purposes including producing energy.

Israel has a doctrine of "nuclear ambiguity" and has never confirmed nor denied having its own nuclear weapons program.

Jafari also warned that an attack against Iran will also prompt Muslims, including Shiites, to harm U.S. and Israeli interests throughout the Middle East in retaliation to any attack against Iran. He mentioned the Tehran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Iran and Israel are each other's biggest foes, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called for Israel's destruction. Though Israel has said it favors a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff, it has not ruled out a military strike.

An Israeli air attack that destroyed an unfinished nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981 and a strike on a suspected nuclear facility in Syria in September have added to the suspicions that Israel is planning action against Iran.

 

By ALI AKBAR DAREINI Associated Press Writer

BAGHDAD - An al-Qaida front organization claimed responsibility Saturday for a suicide bombing that killed more than 20 people - including three Marines - as the U.S. military stepped up pressure on extremists in northern Iraq.

The Islamic State of Iraq posted the claim on a militant Web site, saying the bomber blew himself up among a gathering of the "heads of apostasy" - a reference to U.S.-backed Sunni tribal leaders who were attending a meeting Thursday in Karmah, 20 miles west of Baghdad.

"They sold their souls to the American devil for a cheap price," the statement said. "Therefore, the soldiers of the Islamic State of Iraq have launched an open war against them."

The dead included the commander of Marines in the area, Lt. Col. Max A. Galeai of Pago Pago, American Samoa, as well as the mayor of Karmah, several key tribal figures and two interpreters, U.S. and Iraqi officials said.

It could not be determined if the statement was actually issued by the Islamic State, which is an al-Qaida-controlled coalition of Sunni extremist groups.

However, U.S. officials suspected al-Qaida was behind the attack as part of a campaign of revenge against Sunni community leaders who turned against the terror movement and cooperated with U.S. and Iraqi authorities.

The Sunni revolt against al-Qaida, which gained steam two years ago, cost the terror movement much of its base in vast Anbar province, the heartland of Iraqi's Sunni Arab community and former center-stage of the Sunni insurgency against U.S.-led coalition forces.

The Karmah attack happened two days before U.S. officials planned to formally hand over security responsibility for Anbar to the Iraqis - a sign of the security transformation in the largest of Iraq's 18 provinces.

U.S. authorities postponed the ceremony Friday because of forecast sandstorms, which struck Anbar and areas of western Baghdad as predicted Saturday.

Also Saturday, Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry announced that a 20-year-old serviceman from the former Soviet republic had been killed near the Anbar city of Haditha, where that country's troops guard a hydroelectric dam on the Euphrates River.

A ministry statement said the service member died Friday but did not give a cause of death. Azerbaijan had about 150 troops in Iraq and the soldier was the first to have died in Iraq.

Elsewhere, the U.S. command said American and Iraqi soldiers stepped up pressure this weekend on al-Qaida and other Sunni militants across northern Iraq.

Two militants were killed in a gunfight in Sharqat, about 170 miles north of Baghdad, the military said in a statement. One of the dead was identified as a wanted member of a network that carries out bombings, the military said.

Eight others were apprehended in the raids.

A third suspected militant was killed Saturday in nearby Kirkuk during a raid on a cell believed to have carried out kidnappings.

A U.S. military statement said troops opened fire after an armed man refused to surrender and began "to move quickly with his weapon into a confrontational position."

Three others were detained Friday in the northern city of Mosul, including an alleged leader of an "illegal terrorist court" that meted out punishment and supervised suicide bombers, the U.S. military said.

A suspect believed to have ties to senior al-Qaida in Iraq figures was picked up Saturday in Bulayj, about 60 miles southwest of Mosul, the U.S. said.

In Samarra, 60 miles north of Baghdad, Iraqi police reported finding an estimated 30 human remains in an area west of the city near Lake Tharthar where al-Qaida had been active.

Police Lt. Muthana Shakir said the remains included six women and most of the bodies were handcuffed.

 

By ROBERT H. REID Associated Press Writer 

U.S. revives cross-border terror talk

Security czar says more than a dozen with terrorism ties have entered U.S. via Canada

Ian MacLeod, The Ottawa Citizen

Published: Wednesday, February 13, 2008

The top U.S. domestic counter-terrorism official says more than a dozen people with suspected terrorist ties have attempted to enter the United States from Canada.

Under the headline "Michael Chertoff's deepest fears: Terrorists entering U.S. from Canada," the New York Daily News says Mr. Chertoff, in a recent interview, revealed "much more than a dozen" individuals with links to al-Qaeda, Hezbollah and other extremist groups have been caught trying to enter the U.S. since 9/11.

The head of Homeland Security said the individuals were stopped for links to "a mix" of terror groups through finances, family or spy intercepts.

 

"Do I know they were coming in on a mission as opposed to something else? That I can't necessarily tell you," he said.

His comments coincide with an article in the Cairo-based Middle East Times, in which foreign affairs and counter-terrorism analyst Olivier Guitta claims "potentially hundreds of terrorists may have been allowed into the U.S. (from Canada) without showing any proof of identification."

Under the headline "Danger from Canada," she states that "historically, a number of terror attacks targeting the U.S. have originated in Canada."

The only reported incident of a terrorist attempting to enter the U.S. from Canada for an attack is the 1999 case of "millennium bomber" Ahmed Ressam.

Mr. Chertoff's remarks, meanwhile, are the most specific yet to quantify the problem of cross-border terrorist traffic.

A Homeland Security spokeswoman could not say how many of the cases occurred within the past year or so or what happened to the individuals stopped.

If, however, Mr. Chertoff was only referring to long past incidents, such as the Ressam case, it would suggest political considerations rather than national security influenced his decision to once again single out Canada by resurrecting the menacing image of terrorists slipping across the northern border. In similar remarks to a Chicago newspaper in July, Mr. Chertoff raised the spectre of extremists from Canada crossing the border with fake documents to "blow up" Buffalo or Detroit.

A spokeswoman for Public Safety Minister Stockwell Day declined to comment on Mr. Chertoff's assertion. "These are U.S. numbers," said Mélisa Leclerc.

But "Canada, like other western democracies, including the U.S., is not immune from the threat of terrorism. We continue to work closely with our allies to effectively combat the threat of international terrorism, while maintaining the overall integrity of our shared borders."

U.S. Homeland Security officials were clearly upset two weeks ago when Congress delayed a long-planned initiative that would require Canadian and U.S. citizens to show passports when entering that country by land and sea. The requirement, which was to take effect this summer, has been pushed back by one year.

However, Canadian and American citizens attempting to enter the U.S. must still be prepared to produce documents proving their citizenship and their identity, rather than simply declaring their citizenship.

The measure, which took effect Jan. 31, aims to crack down on illegal declarations by people who falsely claim to be U.S. citizens. Between October and December alone, U.S. customs and border protection officers reported 1,517 false declarations at U.S. border points, including 20 by individuals attempting to enter from Canada.

The latest such case occurred Jan. 10 when a 27-year-old man from the Netherlands was arrested in Niagara Falls, New York, after falsely claiming to be an American. The man had presented a legitimate Texas driver's licence (he lived there illegally in 2005), which he said he thought was sufficient documentation to cross from Canada. Three days earlier, he later admitted, he had flown from Toronto's Pearson airport to the U.S., but was refused entry at a U.S. airport because he didn't have proper documents.

Mr. Ressam, an Algerian refugee who had been living in Montreal, was caught in Washington state by a U.S. border agent in December 1999 with a car trunk full of explosives. He is now in a U.S. prison for plotting to bomb Los Angeles International Airport.

Urgent Need For Nuclear Detectives

Using radiochemistry techniques and access to proposed international databases that include actual samples of uranium and plutonium from around the world, the nuclear investigators might be able to tell the president-and the world-where the bomb fuel came from, or at least rule out some suspects.
by Staff Writers
Stanford CA (SPX) Feb 18, 2008
A terrorist nuclear explosion devastates Manhattan, but no group takes credit. The pressure on the U.S. president to retaliate is intense. Acting on sketchy information, the president orders an attack, but it turns out to be the wrong terrorists, in the wrong country. Things go downhill from there.

To avoid that and other nightmare scenarios, a group of 12 scientists with extensive nuclear expertise, headed by Stanford physicist Michael May, is urging an international push to improve the science of nuclear forensics.

May is a research professor emeritus and former co-director the Center for International Security and Cooperation. He also is the former director of the U.S. nuclear weapons design laboratory in Livermore, Calif. Other members have experience in nuclear intelligence and defense research. One member, Jay Davis, was a United Nations inspector in Iraq.

They say there is an urgent need for more nuclear detectives, armed with science PhDs and instilled with the instincts of an investigator. And those detectives will need training, advanced equipment and stronger ties to intelligence agencies, political leaders and law enforcement.

With the right mobile equipment, nuclear detectives could sift through the debris and the radioactive cloud of an attack in this country or elsewhere and quickly glean crucial information, the scientists argue in a 60-page report to be discussed Feb. 16 at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Boston.

The report, Nuclear Forensics: Role, State of the Art, Program Needs, was written by a joint working group of the AAAS and the American Physical Society.

Using radiochemistry techniques and access to proposed international databases that include actual samples of uranium and plutonium from around the world, the nuclear investigators might be able to tell the president-and the world-where the bomb fuel came from, or at least rule out some suspects.

"Nuclear forensics can make a difference," May said in an interview.

But the U.S. capacity for such investigations has deteriorated since the end of the Cold War, when the capabilities were well supported at the nuclear weapons laboratories. "Presently available trained personnel are highly skilled, but there are not enough of them to deal with an emergency and they are not being replaced," according to May. "A program to refill the pipeline of trained personnel should be undertaken."

There's also a need for development of new equipment, both in the lab and on the street, which could provide a faster analysis during a crisis. The authors also recommend more coordination between scientists and law enforcement; even simple steps such as trading phone numbers could prove crucial. "You really want the top decision makers to know where to get information," May said.

The remnants of an atomic explosion carry a host of clues, even at the microscopic level, including crystal structures and impurities.

Uranium, for example, varies in isotopic composition and impurities according to where it was mined and how it was processed. Weapons-grade plutonium can be exposed during its production to different neutron fluxes and energies, depending on the particular reactor used. It is also possible to establish the length of time plutonium spent in the reactor.

In some cases, it may be possible for scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory or Los Alamos National Laboratory to use their experience, intelligence data and software codes to reverse-engineer a nuclear bomb from its debris and learn telltale details of the design of the explosive.

These clues would not be the equivalent of fingerprints or DNA, May said, but would in most cases allow officials to at least rule out or in broad classes of possible sources.

Tracing bomb material to its source may be only the beginning of an investigation, rather than the end, as the authors acknowledge. Discovering that a terrorist explosive was made of uranium stolen from a specific site in Russia, for example, does not identify the terrorists, but it does provide a starting point, especially if there is suspicion that the bomb makers had inside help.

In their report, the scientists recommend that atomic sleuthing be applied also to radioactive materials seized by law enforcement agencies or border guards. Tracking the substances back to their source might prevent or deter attacks, they said. The authors note that the International Atomic Energy Agency's Illicit Trafficking Database contains 1,080 confirmed events involving illicit trafficking in nuclear and other radioactive materials between 1993 and 2006.

Convincing the nuclear states to share database information about their own uranium and plutonium may be difficult, May said. He suggests that the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has databases of its own, could play an important role.

Killer robots pose latest militant threat: expert

LONDON (Reuters) - Killer robots could become the weapon of choice for militants, a British expert said on Wednesday.

Noel Sharkey, professor of artificial intelligence and robotics at the University of Sheffield said he believed falling costs would soon make robots a realistic option for extremist groups.

Several countries and companies are developing the technology for robot weapons, with the U.S. Department of Defense leading the way. More than 4,000 robots are deployed in Iraq.

"The trouble is that we can't really put the genie back in the bottle. Once the new weapons are out there, they will be fairly easy to copy," Sharkey will tell a one-day conference organized by Britain's Royal United Services Institute on Wednesday.

"How long is it going to be before the terrorists get in on the act? With the current prices of robot construction falling dramatically and the availability of ready-made components for the amateur market, it wouldn't require a lot of skill to make autonomous robot weapons."

Sharkey said a small GPS-guided drone with autopilot could be made for about 250 pounds ($490).



"Israel has said a strike on Iran will be "unavoidable" if the Islamic regime continues to press ahead with alleged plans for building an atom-bomb." (London Daily Telegraph, 6/11/2008)

"Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany joined President Bush on Wednesday in calling for further sanctions against Iran if it does not suspend its uranium enrichment program." Mr. Bush stressed again that "all options are on the table," which would include military force. (New York Times, 6/11/2008)


We are fast approaching the final six months of the Bush administration. The quagmire in Iraq is in its sixth painful year with no real end in sight and the forgotten war in Afghanistan is well into its seventh year. The "dead enders" and other armed factions are still alive and well in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan again controls most of that country. Gas prices have now reached an average of $4.00 a gallon nationally and several analysts predict the price will rise to $5.00-$6.00 dollars per gallon at the pump by Labor Day. This, despite assurances by some major supporters of the decision to invade Iraq that the Iraq war "will pay for itself" (Paul Wolfowitz) or that we will see "$20.00 per barrel" oil prices if we invade Iraq (Rupert Murdoch).

One thing the Pentagon routinely does (and does very well) is conduct war games. Top brass there are constantly developing strategies for conducting any number of theoretical missions based on real or perceived threats to our national security or vital interests. This was also done prior to the invasion of Iraq, but the Bush administration chose not to listen to the dire warnings about that mission given to him by Pentagon leaders, or for that matter, by his own senior intelligence officials. Nevertheless, war gaming is in full swing again right now with the bullseye just to the right of our current mess – Iran.

It’s no secret that the U.S. is currently putting the finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iranian nuclear and military facilities. With our ground forces stretched to the breaking point in Iraq and Afghanistan, none of the most likely scenarios involve a ground invasion. Not that this administration wouldn’t prefer to march into the seat of Shiite Islam behind a solid, moving line of M1 Abrams tanks and proclaim the country for democracy. The fact is that even the President knows we can’t pull that off any more so he and the neo-cons will have to settle for Shock and Awe Lite.

If we invade Iran this year it will be done using hundreds of sorties by carrier based aircraft already stationed in the Persian Gulf and from land based aircraft located in Iraq and Qatar. They will strike the known nuclear facilities located in and around Tehran and the rest of the country as well as bases containing major units of the Iranian military, anti-aircraft installations and units of the Revolutionary Guard (a separate and potent Iranian para-military organization).

Will this military action stop Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons? Probably not. It will probably not even destroy all of their nuclear research facilities, the most sensitive of which are known to be underground, protected by tons of earth and reinforced concrete and steel designed to survive almost all attacks using conventional munitions. The Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard will most likely survive as well, although they will suffer significant casualties and major bases and command centers will undoubtedly be destroyed. However, since Iran has both a functioning Air Force, Navy (including submarines) and modern anti-aircraft capabilities, U.S. fighter-bombers will suffer casualties as well. This will not be a "Cake Walk" as with the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003 when the Iraqi Army simply melted away and the Iraqi Air Force never even launched a single aircraft.

Not even close.

If the United States attacks Iran either this summer or this fall, the American people had better be prepared for a shock that may perhaps be even greater to the national psyche (and economy) than 9/11. First of all, there will be significant U.S. casualties in the initial invasion. American jets will be shot down and the American pilots who are not killed will be taken prisoner - including female pilots. Iranian Yakhonts 26, Sunburn 22 and Exocet missiles will seek out and strike U.S. naval battle groups bottled up in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf with very deadly results. American sailors will be killed and U.S. ships will be badly damaged and perhaps sunk. We may even witness the first attack on an American Aircraft carrier since World War II.

That’s just the opening act.

Israel (who had thus far stayed out of the fray by letting the U.S. military do the heavy lifting) is attacked by Hezbollah in a coordinated and large scale effort. Widespread and grisly casualties effectively paralyze the nation, a notion once thought impossible. Iran’s newest ally in the region, Syria, then unleashes a barrage of over 200 Scud B, C and D missiles at Israel, each armed with VX gas. Since all of Israel is within range of these Russian built weapons, Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and virtually all major civilian centers and several military bases are struck, often with a result of massive casualties.

The Israeli Air Force orders all three squadrons of their F-16I Sufa fighter/bombers into the air with orders to bomb Tehran and as many military and nuclear bases as they can before they are either shot down or run out of fuel. It is a one way trip for some of these pilots. Their ancient homeland lies in ruins. Many have family that is already dead or dying. They do not wait for permission from Washington, DC or U.S. regional military commanders. The Israeli aircraft are carrying the majority of their country’s nuclear arsenal under their wings.

Just after the first waves of U.S. bombers cross into Iranian airspace, the Iranian Navy, using shore based missiles and small, fast attack craft sinks several oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, sealing off the Persian Gulf and all its oil from the rest of the world. They then mine the area, making it difficult and even deadly for American minesweepers to clear the straits. Whatever is left of the Iranian Navy and Air Force harasses our Navy as it attempts minesweeping operations. More U.S casualties.

The day after the invasion Wall Street (and to a lesser extent, Tokyo, London and Frankfurt) acts as it always does in an international crisis – irrational speculative and spot buying reaches fever pitch and sends the cost of oil skyrocketing. In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iran, the price of oil goes to $200.00 - $300.00 dollars a barrel on the open market. If the war is not resolved in a few weeks, that price could rise even higher.  This will send the price of gasoline at the pump in this country to $8.00-$10.00 per gallon immediately and subsequently to even higher unthinkable levels.

If that happens, this country shuts down. Most Americans are not be able to afford gas to go to work. Truckers pull their big rigs to the side of the road and simply walk away. Food, medicine and other critical products are not be brought to stores. Gas and electricity (what is left of the short supply) are too expensive for most people to afford. Children, the sick and elderly die from lack of air-conditioned homes and hospitals in the summer. Children, the sick and elderly die in the winter for lack of heat. There are food riots across the country. A barter system takes the place of currency and credit as the economy dissolves and banks close or limit withdrawals. Civil unrest builds.

The police are unable to contain the violence and are themselves victims of the same crisis as the rest of the population. Civilian rule dissolves and Martial Law is declared under provisions approved under the Patriot Act. Regular U.S. Army and Marine troops patrol the streets. The federal government apparatus is moved to an unknown but secure location. The United States descends into chaos and becomes a third world country. Its time as the lone superpower is over.

It doesn’t get any worse than this.

Then the first Israeli bomber drops its nuclear payload on Tehran.

David DeBatto is a former U.S. Army Counterintelligence Special Agent, Iraqi war veteran and co-author the "CI" series from Warner Books and the upcoming "Counter to Intelligence" from Praeger Security International.

Israel has a year to destroy Iran's nuclear programme: ex-spy chief

by Staff Writers
London (AFP) June 29, 2008
Israel has one year to destroy Iran's nuclear programme or it faces the risk of coming under nuclear attack, the former head of its foreign intelligence agency said in an interview published Sunday.

Speaking to the Sunday Telegraph, Shabtai Shavit said the "worst-case scenario" was that Tehran would have a nuclear weapon within "somewhere around a year".

"The time that is left to be ready is getting shorter all the time," he was quoted as saying by the weekly.

"As an intelligence officer working with the worst-case scenario, I can tell you we should be prepared. We should do whatever necessary on the defensive side, on the offensive side, on the public opinion side for the West, in case sanctions don't work. What's left is a military action."

The chief of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards General Mohammad Ali Jafari warned Israel not to attack it, saying that the Jewish state was well within range of its missiles, according to a newspaper report Saturday.

Iran has defied UN sanctions and international demands by pressing ahead with its uranium enrichment programme, which both Washington and Israel fear will be used to build a nuclear weapon.

Tehran denies wanting the bomb, and says its nuclear ambitions extend only to generating electricity for a growing population.

Shavit also waded into the American presidential race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, saying that the latter was less likely to approve an Israeli military strike against Iran.

"If McCain gets elected, he could really easily make a decision to go for it," Shavit was quoted as saying.

"If it's Obama: no. My prediction is that he won't go for it, at least not in his first term in the White House."

He warned, however, that American approval was not a necessary pre-requisite for Israel carrying out an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

"When it comes to decisions that have to do with our national security and our own survival, at best we may update the Americans that we are intending or planning or going to do something," he said.

"It's not a precondition, [getting] an American agreement."

Iran to ready thousands of graves for enemy soldiers

by Staff Writers
Tehran (AFP) June 29, 2008
Iran is to dig 320,000 graves in border districts to allow for the burial of enemy soldiers in the event of any attack on its territory, a top commander said on Sunday.

"In implementation of the Geneva Conventions... the necessary measures are being taken to provide for the burial of enemy soldiers," the Mehr news agency quoted General Mir-Faisal Bagherzadeh as saying.

"We have plans to dig 15,000 to 20,000 graves in each of the border provinces or a total of 320,000," the general said, some of them mass graves if necessary.

Bagherzadeh said Iran was keen to "reduce the suffering of the families of the fallen in any attack against our country... and prevent any repetition of the long and bitter experience of the Vietnam War."

His comments came as the United States continued to refuse to rule out an eventual resort to force against Iran over its contested nuclear programme, which the West fears is cover for a drive to build an atomic weapon.

They also came as Israeli officials spoke of their determination to prevent Iran developing a nuclear capability at all costs.

A former head of Israel's Mossad foreign intelligence agency said in comments published on Sunday that the Jewish state had one year to destroy Iran's nuclear programme or face the risk of coming under nuclear attack.

Shabtai Shavit told a London weekly that the "worst-case scenario" was that Tehran would have a nuclear weapon within "somewhere around a year".

"The time that is left to be ready is getting shorter all the time," he told the Sunday Telegraph.

Israel is the only, if undeclared, nuclear armed power in the Middle East.

Analysis: U.S. unprepared for nuke attack

disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only
by Shannon Bond
Washington (UPI) Jun 27, 2008
Federal officials responsible for coping with the aftermath of a possible nuclear attack in the United States are not fully confident of the government's readiness to deal with such a disaster, they told a Senate hearing Thursday.

"A nuclear event is exponentially more challenging than anything else," Assistant Secretary of Defense Paul McHale told the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

McHale rated the government's preparation level at five on a scale of one to 10, in response to a question from committee Chairman Joseph Lieberman, I-Conn.

That's better than the government's state of readiness before Sept. 11, 2001, McHale said, but worse than that for other disaster scenarios, including an attack using other types of weapons of mass destruction, like biological or chemical ones.

W. Craig Vanderwagen, assistant secretary of health and human services, pegged preparedness at "six, maybe five," while Arlington County (Va.) Fire Chief James Schwartz was even less positive.

Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator R. David Paulison described a nuclear attack as "the greatest danger facing the United States" but also gave the most upbeat assessment -- seven or eight -- because "we know where we need to go."

Lieberman called the hearing, the fifth in a series scrutinizing the nation's ability to respond to a terrorist nuclear attack, to examine how the government will meet medical and other basic needs in the immediate aftermath.

All four witnesses said while the federal government is better prepared for large-scale disasters since the Sept. 11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina, nuclear terrorism presents its own set of challenges.

"There are enormous gaps that still need to be filled," Schwartz said.

The biggest hurdle for federal agencies is coordination with state and local governments.

"We're pretty good at the poetry of strategy," McHale said, but he emphasized the need "to get realistic, detailed planning at the state and local level."

To plan effectively, "local responders need a real understanding of the probability of this kind of threat," Schwartz said. "Most communities aren't focusing on this risk as a reality."

But it is essential they do, because local emergency services are the first responders in a disaster. "We assume we are largely on our own for the first 24 to 48 hours," Schwartz said.

During that time, he said, effective communication with survivors is critical. Arlington County uses text messaging, a dedicated AM radio station and Reverse 9-1-1, an automated alert system that calls landlines and cell phones for real-time emergency communication.

But Paulison said such systems could be knocked out in an explosion. "Communications aren't going to be what they should be," he said.

Because it can take hours, if not days, for federal assistance to mobilize, preparing local agencies and institutions is vital, Vanderwagen said.

Hospitals are making progress, the HHS official said. Today, more than 400,000 people can be decontaminated from radiation exposure in three hours nationwide, an example of the changes put in place since 2002, when two-thirds of American hospitals had no decontamination facilities.

But when it comes to treating the more than 100,000 people who could be at risk of acute radiation syndrome in the event of a nuclear attack, Vanderwagen said, "We don't have much in the toolbox at this point."

The Department of Health and Human Services has put out a call for research into new medications that could treat the syndrome, but identifying and developing new drugs is a slow process.

And even when medication becomes available, making sure it reaches those who need it is also a challenge. Much of the burden of disaster relief falls on the National Guard, which itself may not be prepared.

"I continue to hear troubling assessments about the National Guard's readiness to provide civil services," said Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the committee's top-ranking Republican.

While acknowledging these frank assessments, FEMA's Paulison said his top priority is to continue building partnerships during the transition to a new administration after the November election. "Today, our operations and programs reflect the lessons learned in the past," he said.

Medill News Service

Israel has a year to destroy Iran's nuclear programme: ex-spy chief

by Staff Writers
London (AFP) June 29, 2008
Israel has one year to destroy Iran's nuclear programme or it faces the risk of coming under nuclear attack, the former head of its foreign intelligence agency said in an interview published Sunday.

Speaking to the Sunday Telegraph, Shabtai Shavit said the "worst-case scenario" was that Tehran would have a nuclear weapon within "somewhere around a year".

"The time that is left to be ready is getting shorter all the time," he was quoted as saying by the weekly.

"As an intelligence officer working with the worst-case scenario, I can tell you we should be prepared. We should do whatever necessary on the defensive side, on the offensive side, on the public opinion side for the West, in case sanctions don't work. What's left is a military action."

The chief of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards General Mohammad Ali Jafari warned Israel not to attack it, saying that the Jewish state was well within range of its missiles, according to a newspaper report Saturday.

Iran has defied UN sanctions and international demands by pressing ahead with its uranium enrichment programme, which both Washington and Israel fear will be used to build a nuclear weapon.

Tehran denies wanting the bomb, and says its nuclear ambitions extend only to generating electricity for a growing population.

Shavit also waded into the American presidential race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama, saying that the latter was less likely to approve an Israeli military strike against Iran.

"If McCain gets elected, he could really easily make a decision to go for it," Shavit was quoted as saying.

"If it's Obama: no. My prediction is that he won't go for it, at least not in his first term in the White House."

He warned, however, that American approval was not a necessary pre-requisite for Israel carrying out an air strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

"When it comes to decisions that have to do with our national security and our own survival, at best we may update the Americans that we are intending or planning or going to do something," he said.

"It's not a precondition, [getting] an American agreement."

Pentagon warns about Israeli attack on Iran

Tuesday
Jul 1,2008

Unnamed senior Pentagon officials told ABC News there is an “increasing likelihood” Israel will attack Iran, and soon.

The official identified two “red lines” that could trigger an Israeli offensive. The first is tied to when Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility produces enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon. According to the latest U.S. and Israeli intelligence assessments, that is likely to happen sometime in 2009, and could happen by the end of this year.

“The red line is not when they get to that point, but before they get to that point,” the official said. “We are in the window of vulnerability.”

The second red line is connected to when Iran acquires the SA-20 air defense system it is buying from Russia. The Israelis may want to strike before that system — which would make an attack much more difficult — is put in place.

Some Pentagon officials also worry that Israel may be determined to attack before a new U.S. president, who may be less supportive, is sworn in next January.

BAGHDAD - Hezbollah instructors trained Shiite militiamen at remote camps in southern Iraq until three months ago when they slipped across the border to Iran - presumably to continue instruction on Iranian soil, according to two Shiite lawmakers and a top army officer.

The three Iraqis claim the Lebanese Shiites were also involved in planning some of the most brazen attacks against U.S.-led forces, including the January 2007 raid on a provincial government compound in Karbala in which five Americans died.

The allegations, made in separate interviews with The Associated Press, point not only to an Iranian hand in the Iraq war, but also to Hezbollah's willingness to expand beyond its Lebanese base and assume a broader role in the struggle against U.S. influence in the Middle East.

All this suggests that Shiite-dominated Iran is waging a proxy war against the United States to secure a dominant role in majority-Shiite Iraq, which has supplanted Lebanon as Tehran's top priority in the Middle East.

"The stakes are much higher in Iraq, where there is a Shiite majority, oil, the shrine cities and borders with Saudi Arabia," said analyst Farid al-Khazen, a Christian Lebanese lawmaker whose party is allied with Hezbollah.

"The big story is Iraq, and the Americans unwittingly opened it up for the Iranians" by their invasion in 2003, al-Khazen said.

The allegations come as the United States and Iran are engaged in a showdown over Tehran's nuclear program and each country's role in Iraq.

Iran, Hezbollah's mentor, denies giving any support to Shiite extremists in Iraq.

But the three Iraqis who spoke to the AP said the Iranians prefer to use Hezbollah instructors because as Arabs, they can communicate better with the Iraqi Shiites and maintain a lower profile than Farsi-speakers from Iran.

For Hezbollah, a high-risk role in Iraq could give the Lebanese movement leverage with the United States and broaden its appeal within the Arab world where anti-American sentiment remains strong.

Iraqi officials have said little about a Hezbollah role in this country. However, President Jalal Talabani told U.S.-funded Alhurra television this week that "there have been several occasions" when Hezbollah members or those who "claim to belong to Hezbollah" have been detained in Iraq.

He gave no further details.

But the two Iraqi lawmakers and the military officer said Hezbollah instructors work only with members of the Iraqi Shiite "special groups," the U.S. military's name for splinter factions of anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army militia. The U.S. believes that Iran's elite Quds Force, a branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, supports the special groups.

All three Iraqis spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not supposed to release the information.

The lawmakers belong to al-Sadr's movement and were involved in the creation of the Mahdi Army in 2003. The military officer's job gives him access to highly classified intelligence information.

They said Hezbollah began training Shiite militiamen in the second half of 2006 at two camps - Deir and Kutaiban - east of Basra near the Iranian border. They fled across the border in late March or early April this year after U.S.-backed Iraqi forces launched a crackdown against militias in Basra, Iraq's second-largest city.

In Iran, training resumed in camps once used by Iraqi exiles who fought with Iranian forces during the 1980s war between the two countries, the lawmakers said. Instruction includes explosives, ambushes and use of rockets and mortars.

Citing testimony from special groups members in custody, the officer said the Hezbollah instructors never numbered more than 10 at any one time, kept a low profile and moved back and forth over the Iranian border.

Indications that Hezbollah was playing a role in Iraq first surfaced last July when the U.S. military announced the arrest of Ali Musa Daqduq, a Lebanese-born Hezbollah operative allegedly training Iraqi Shiite militiamen.

At least one other Hezbollah operative, identified only as Faris, was detained in Basra during fighting there in April and was handed over to the Americans, the Iraqi military officer said.

The U.S. military has said little publicly about Hezbollah's involvement here since announcing Daqduq's arrest, though it has frequently alleged an Iranian role in arming, equipping and training Shiite extremists.

"At this point in time, we do not have any new, releasable information regarding Hezbollah's involvement with special groups in Iran and Iraq," a military spokesman, Capt. Charles Calio, said in an e-mail to the AP.

A Hezbollah spokesman in Beirut, Lebanon, refused to comment on any role for his organization.

However, Ibrahim al-Ameen, a Lebanese newspaper editor close to Hezbollah, said in a recent interview in Beirut that Hezbollah's leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, spends several hours daily dealing with "the situation in Iraq."

Nasrallah, who studied Shiite theology in Iraq, spoke at length about Iraqi "resistance" during a speech last May that analysts believed was aimed at bolstering his image as a godfather of Arab opposition to the United States and Israel throughout the Middle East.

Beside its alleged role in Iraq, Hezbollah is known to have ties to the Palestinian militant Hamas group. The charismatic Nasrallah has become a sort of folk hero in the mostly Sunni Arab world after his guerrillas fought Israeli forces to a standstill in a 34-day war in 2006.

A senior Western diplomat based in the Middle East said his government has information suggesting a growing Hezbollah interest in events in Iraq. However, the diplomat would say no more and insisted on anonymity because the subject is so sensitive.

Hezbollah's possible role in direct attacks against U.S.-led forces is murkier and more explosive.

The two Iraqi lawmakers said Hezbollah operatives planned and supervised both the Karbala attack and the brazen daylight kidnapping of five British nationals from a Finance Ministry compound in Baghdad in May 2007. The Britons are still being held.

In the Karbala attack, English-speaking militants wearing American uniforms and carrying American weapons stormed the compound, killing one U.S. soldier and abducting four. The four were later found dead.

A senior Mahdi Army commander in Baghdad, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information, said Hezbollah's operations in Iraq had been supervised by Imad Mughniyeh, a top commander of the guerrilla group killed in a car bomb in Syria last February.

The shadowy figure was suspected of a role in the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut and the 1992 attack on the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

 

By HAMZA HENDAWI and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA Associated Press Writers

North Korea Had To Develop Nuclear Arms To Get Into US Graces

North Korea's nuclear reactor Yongbyon. Credit: AFP
by Ivan Zakharchenko
RIA Novosti international commentator
Moscow (RIA Novosti) Jul 03, 2008
With a six months' delay, North Korea presented a list of its nuclear programs to China, which chairs the six-lateral talks aimed at ridding the Korean peninsular of nuclear weapons.

Last year, diplomats from Russia, the United States, China, North Korea, and Japan agreed that it is essential to establish trust between all partners in dialogue in order to reach the finals goal of the talks.

For their part, Americans promised to launch in Congress the process on excluding North Korea from a list of countries supporting terrorism, and ridding it from the restrictions of the Trading with the Enemy Act.

In turn, Pyongyang was supposed to present a declaration listing all of North Korea's nuclear installations and programs by December 31, 2007.

But this was achieved only recently, because the United States and North Korea could not agree on how complete this list should be.

At first, Washington insisted that the declaration should reflect the number of the available nuclear weapons (North Korea announced their successful nuclear tests in October 2006), and demanded that North Korea give a clear answer to the question of whether it had supplied Syria with nuclear technologies.

In a bid to get things moving on the eve of the presidential elections, Washington made a concession and agreed to resume the discussion of the number of North Korea's nuclear weapons and its nuclear contacts with other countries at subsequent stages.

U.S. sanctions against North Korea have been in force for almost six decades. They were imposed after the start of a three-year Korean War in 1950. Formally, the war is still not over because in 1953 the two sides only signed a truce agreement, and Washington turned a deaf ear to Pyongyang's appeals to replace it with a peace treaty.

Since these times, Pyongyang has been considered an American "enemy," and the United States keeps an almost 30,000-strong contingent in South Korea to offset the North Korean army.

The United States blacklisted North Korea as a terrorist state after the mysterious incident with a South Korean passenger plane, which exploded over the Andaman Sea in 1987. South Korea accused North Korea of staging an act of terror on the eve of the Seoul Olympics, and North Korea shot back.

The United States will start the process of removing North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, and lifting trade and financial restrictions in the near future. It will take 45 days to complete this process.

Analysts believe that this will give North Korea big opportunities in foreign trade, and help it break long-term international isolation.

As a symbolic gesture, North Korea blew up on June 27 the cooling tower of its main atomic reactor at Yongbyon (100 km to the north of Pyongyang). This process was shown live by major world TV channels.

But it will take a long time to overcome this second crisis on the Korean Peninsula. In the next few days, the participants in the six-sided talks will resume the discussion of a third stage in North Korea's nuclear disarmament - irreversible and verified cessation of all nuclear programs, and complete normalization of Pyongyang's relations with Washington and Tokyo.

The first nuclear crisis broke on the peninsular in the early 1990s, when North Korea had just started developing nuclear weapons at Yongbyon. This was a brinkmanship situation, but in 1994 U.S. and North Korean diplomats came to a compromise: North Korea agreed to freeze its Yongbyon facility in exchange for the supply of two light-water reactors, which were inadequate for the production of weapons-grade plutonium.

Having come to power in Washington, George W. Bush rejected Bill Clinton's policy on North Korea. The construction of light-water reactors was stopped, and North Korea resumed development of nuclear weapons.

The six-sided talks, which started in Beijing in August 2003, were rather sluggish until North Korea conducted an underground nuclear explosion. The participants in the talks were shaken up and got matters off the ground. Pyongyang promised to give up nuclear weapons if a threat to its security were removed. It did not want to become a second Iraq.

Strange as it may seem, but it appears that in order to get into U.S. graces, have the sanctions lifted, and be removed from the black list, North Korea had to develop nuclear weapons. Pyongyang is well aware that if it had not gone nuclear, Washington would have refused even to talk with it.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

Iran warns about attack, refers to nuclear 'solution'

Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari.
by Staff Writers
Madrid (AFP) July 2, 2008
Iran warned Wednesday of a fierce response and radically higher oil prices if the country were attacked, but also signaled possible progress in its five-year nuclear standoff with the West.

"Iran, if there were any kind of activity of any sort, is not going to be quiet and would react fiercely," Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari said here when asked what Tehran would do in the event of an attack.

He added that oil prices, which have been driven to record levels partly because of fear about the loss of Iran's 4.0-million-barrel-a-day output, would rise radically if Israel or the United States launched a military strike.

His comments on the sidelines of an oil conference here came as Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki raised hopes of arriving at a negotiated "multi-faceted solution" to the nuclear stalemate.

"We see the possibility of arriving at a multi-faceted solution," Mottaki told a press conference at the United Nations, commenting on a revised package of economic and energy incentives.

He earlier told US media that "a new process" was underway after six world powers presented Iran with a package of measures to end the deadlock last month, according to Iran's state-run IRNA news agency.

The White House expressed scepticism but Mottaki's statement was more positively received in Brussels, where EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana described it as "interesting."

Six world powers last month came up with a solution for ending the crisis, offering technological incentives in exchange for Tehran suspending uranium enrichment, which the West fears could be used to make an atomic bomb.

Iran has unveiled its own package, which is a more all-embracing effort to solve global problems and suggests the setting up of a consortium in Iran for enriching uranium.

Referring to the package presented by Solana, Mottaki said examination of it would soon enter "the final stage."

Meanwhile, there has been a surge in recent speculation that Israel might be planning a military strike against Iran's nuclear sites after it emerged that Israeli fighter planes had carried out practice runs.

But recent reports in Western media have also suggested that Tehran is ready to adopt a softer line and may be prepared to offer concessions.

The foreign policy advisor to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday it would be in Iran's interest to accept the proposed package and warned against provocative remarks that could destabilise the situation.

No Iranian official has suggested in the past months that Tehran is ready to give any ground on the key question of enrichment, however, which Iran must suspend in order to enter the talks offered by the world powers.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeatedly has vowed that Iran will never halt enrichment operations and Khamenei himself has said many times over the past years that Tehran will not back down.

Iran insists its atomic drive is entirely peaceful and it needs nuclear energy for a growing population whose fossil fuels will eventually run out.

US President George W. Bush again stressed on Wednesday that military action was possible despite his preference for diplomacy.

"I have always said that all options are on the table but the first option for the United States is to solve this problem diplomatically," Bush told reporters in the White House Rose Garden.

Top US military chiefs warned meanwhile that opening up a third front against Iran in addition to Iraq and Afghanistan would be "extremely stressful."

The United States and its regional ally Israel have never ruled out military strikes to end what they see as Tehran's defiance, but analysts expressed concern that Iran would cease crude exports and could block key Gulf oil shipping routes if attacked.

Benchmark oil prices traded at about 141 dollars per barrel in London and New York on Wednesday after striking a record above 143 dollars last week.

White House remains skeptical over Iran

File image.
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) July 2, 2008
The White House said Wednesday it was skeptical about top Iranian officials' comments welcoming a US-backed reward package aimed at ending the dispute over Tehran's nuclear program.

"If they were serious about wanting to take us up on that offer, then that would be welcome. But I think we have every reason to be skeptical since we get mixed messages from them quite often," said spokeswoman Dana Perino.

"The best way for us to respond to it is to say that we'll see," she said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told US journalists Tuesday that Tehran was "seriously and carefully examining" the incentives package and would respond formally in the next "couple of weeks," the Washington Post said.

"We believe that talks are a good foundation for continuing our conversation in this field," the Post quoted him as saying, calling the diplomatic efforts by six major powers a "constructive" approach.

According to the state-run IRNA news agency, Mottaki told US reporters in New York that "a process is underway and it started with the package delivered by Iran."

"This package presented tackled important questions and then on the other side the world powers offered their own package," he said.

Six world powers last month presented Iran with a proposal aimed at ending the crisis which offers technological incentives in exchange for Tehran suspending uranium enrichment, which can be a key step to make an atomic bomb.

Tehran denies that its program hides a nuclear weapons quest. US President George W. Bush has said that he has not ruled out using force against Iran.

The Islamic republic has put forward its own package, a more all-embracing effort to solve global problems and notably suggests the setting up of a consortium in Iran for enriching uranium.

According to IRNA, Mottaki was asked about the question of suspending uranium enrichment. But he did not give any direct comment on the subject.

Iran won't be allowed to close key Persian Gulf passageway: U.S. navy

Iran will 'react fiercely' if attacked, says country's oil minister

Last Updated: Wednesday, July 2, 2008 | 11:32 AM ET Comments100Recommend43

The U.S. navy and its regional allies will not allow Iran to seal off the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the commander of U.S. naval forces in the Persian Gulf said Wednesday.

Vice-Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, commander of the 5th Fleet, made the warning during talks with naval commanders of gulf countries in the United Arab Emirates capital of Abu Dhabi. The one-day meeting was to focus on the security of the region's Maritime and trade routes, and the threat of terrorism.

The 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain, across the gulf from Iran. Cosgriff said that if Iran choked off the Strait of Hormuz, it would be "saying to the world that 40 per cent of oil is now held hostage by a single country.

"We will not allow Iran to close it," he told reporters.

Meanwhile, Iran's oil minister warned Wednesday that an attack on Iran would provoke a fierce response, but also said Tehran would not cut oil deliveries and would continue supplying the market even if struck by Israel or the United States.

Tehran "is not going to be quiet," if attacked, Gholam Hossein Nozari told reporters Wednesday at the World Petroleum Congress in Madrid.

It's "going to react fiercely, and nobody can imagine what would be the reaction of Iran," he added.

25 million barrels of oil pass through strait daily

Cosgriff's comments followed Iranian threats that it could seal off the key passageway in the event of a Western attack. But Cosgriff said that if Iran tried to choke off Hormuz, the "international community would find its voice rapidly" against Iran.

Earlier this week, Cosgriff said in Bahrain that any such action by Iran would be viewed as an act of war.

Twenty-five million barrels of oil, worth about $3 billion US, pass through Hormuz every day, Cosgriff said.

Tension has been high between Iran and the West over accusations that Tehran is supporting Shia militias in Iraq and using its nuclear program as cover for weapons development. Iran has denied both claims.

The narrow Strait of Hormuz is particularly sensitive and has been the scene of close encounters between U.S. and Iranian sailors.

In a Jan. 6 incident, five small Iranian high-speed boats charged U.S. warships and threatened to blow up the convoy. In mid-December, a U.S. ship fired a warning shot at a small Iranian boat that came too close, causing the Iranians to pull back

White House mum on alleged coverts ops in Iran

by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) June 30, 2008
The White House declined to comment Monday on a news report that US lawmakers last year approved 400 million dollars to ramp up covert operations in Iran to undermine Tehran's leadership.

"I couldn't comment either way," spokeswoman Dana Perino said after The New Yorker magazine reported tat the US Congress passed US President George W. Bush's funding request for a dramatic increase in such secret operations.

Asked about the likelihood of US military action against Tehran's disputed nuclear program before the president leaves office in January 2009, Perino said Bush "is singularly focused on trying to solve this issue diplomatically."

The New Yorker, which cited former military, intelligence and congressional souces, said the funding revealed a "major escalation" in clandestine operations aimed at destabilizing the Islamic republic's religious leadership amid concerns over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

Among the methods being used are increased US support for minority and dissident groups and intelligence gathering about Iran's nuclear facilities, said the article, written and reported by Seymour Hersh.

Although such covert activities in Iran are not new on the part of the United States, the magazine said the "scale and the scope of the operations in Iran, which involve the Central Intelligence Agency and the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), have now been significantly expanded."

However, US ambassador to Baghdad Ryan Crocker on Sunday flatly rejected the allegation of cross-border operations from Iraq into Iran.

"I can tell you flatly that US forces are not operating across the Iraqi border into Iran," he told CNN television.

WHY IRAN WILL NEVER GIVE UP IT'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM. IT HAS SO MUCH TO GAIN AND NOTHING TO LOOSE BECAUSE OF OIL

TEHRAN, Iran - An Iranian government spokesman says the country's nuclear program remains unchanged, indicating that Tehran has no plans to stop enriching uranium.

Gholan-Hossein Elham's comments to reporters Saturday come a day after Iran sent a response to an international proposal to curb its program in exchange for economic incentives.

The contents of the response have not been made public. But Elham's insistence that Iran's program remains unchanged indicates that Tehran is refusing to meet the West's key demand that it stop enrichment.

The U.S. and some of its allies fear that Iran's enrichment program could produce nuclear weapons. Iran insists its program is for peaceful purposes.

 

The Associated Press

Despair Drives Suicide Attacks by Iraqi Women

     
    Published: July 5, 2008

    BAQUBA, Iraq — Wenza Ali Mutlaq walked a bit uncertainly up the long street near the main government offices here on June 22, the hot wind stirring her heavy black abaya. She passed the concrete barricades put up to ward off suicide car bombers and made her way alone, almost haphazardly.

    Skip to next paragraph
    Ali Mohammed/European Pressphoto Agency

    Iraqis inspecting bodies after a suicide attack last month by a woman wearing an explosive vest in Baquba, in Diyala Province. In addition to the bomber, 15 other people died in the attack.

    Suddenly, a police car zoomed in. A policeman got out to talk with her. And then their lives were over — torn apart, along with 14 other people, by the huge blast of fire from her concealed explosive vest.

    Ms. Mutlaq, who was in her 30s and whose attack was captured on a security video, was the 18th female suicide bomber of the war to strike in Diyala Province, which has been hit by female attackers much more frequently than any other province of Iraq, according to Iraqi police records and the American military. So far, 11 of the 20 suicide bombings carried out by women in Iraq this year have occurred in Diyala.

    Why so many women? Why now? In a particularly painful twist, the phenomenon seems to have arisen at least in part because of successes in detaining and killing local members of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a homegrown Sunni insurgent group that American intelligence officials say is led by foreigners.

    The women who become suicide bombers often have lost close male relatives — a husband, a brother, a son — in fighting, because they became suicide bombers themselves or because they were detained by American or Iraqi security forces.

    Ms. Mutlaq was no exception: her older brother had already taken the same path, detonating a suicide vest on June 10 during a shootout with Iraqi government forces.

    “If there’s one single trend that I see, it’s the women’s relationship with the male figures that were members of A.Q.I. and were captured or killed,” said a senior military analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was discussing information that had not been released publicly.

    The subordinate role of women in conservative, rural Sunni families in Diyala makes them particularly vulnerable to pressure, said Sajar Qaduri, a member of the Diyala Provincial Council and the only woman on its security committee.

    “Although she is bombing herself and aiming to kill people, I feel these women are really victims of terrorism,” said Mrs. Qaduri, who is a Shiite and whose husband was kidnapped two years ago and has not been heard from since. “Only women in despair, in desperate situations, would do this. Dealing with such a phenomenon is not easy.”

    She added: “Our Oriental society is not like your Western society. It seems in many of these cases the women have had their husband killed or sent to prison and she feels she has no choice, she is very depressed.”

    Female suicide bombers are not a new phenomenon in Iraq or elsewhere, but they have been relatively rare. Since 2003, 43 women have carried out suicide bombings in Iraq, a tiny percentage of the total, according to the United States military. Though the first two cases came in the first year of the war, suicide attacks by women did not really become a trend until 2007, when there were eight such bombings in Iraq. All but one of the female bombers have been Iraqis and most are young, between the ages of 15 and 35, according to the police and American military analysts. Almost all the attacks have been attributed to Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, which is also known as Al Qaeda in Iraq.

    Diyala has been a stronghold for the group since it was chased from Anbar Province in the west in 2004. The province’s attraction was clear: it offers easy hiding places in its palm groves and orchards, and a Sunni-majority population that includes many people who supported Saddam Hussein and are sympathetic to the insurgency.

    But in the past year, American and Iraqi forces have had much greater success in killing and detaining the group’s members in the province, as well as thwarting many of its bigger attack plots. The rise in female suicide bombings has directly coincided with the timing, and the locations, of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia’s biggest loss of manpower in Diyala, Baghdad and Anbar.

    Al Qaeda is always innovating: finding new ways to work,” said Ghanem al-Khoreishi, the police chief of Diyala. “When we destroyed them in fighting, they started to use new methods. And because they knew that women are treated more gently than men, they began to use them.

    “The people don’t search them so well even at checkpoints.”

    Interviews with police officers and politicians, American military analysts and Iraqi women yield different views of the phenomenon. But many agree that the province’s traditional, conservative and still largely rural society is a factor.

    In Diyala’s countryside, most women cannot imagine the world beyond the date palms they see on the horizon. It might be an hourlong walk to the next village, there are no telephones, and cellphones often do not work. Most of the women cannot read.

    “Most of the women who have killed themselves are from the villages,” said Maj. Gen. Abdul Karim al-Rubaie, the head of the Iraqi Army operations center in Diyala. “She is living a very traditional life. She has no rights.”

    “For that reason,” he added, “her ideas are very small.”

    During Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia’s big push to take over Diyala villages, starting in late 2004, many families yielded to the extremists to protect themselves. Wide networks of villages that support Al Qaeda were created when subtribes, and sometimes even whole tribes, embraced the movement.

    “In these families, they are terrorists: the conversations at dinner are about suicide bombs, about explosives, about improvised explosive devices,” said Col. Ali Ismari Fateh, a police commander who has been involved in hundreds of interrogations of people suspected of being insurgents.

    Mrs. Qaduri, the provincial council member, said she believed that an element of sexual abuse may be involved as well. Many families marry their daughters off to local Qaeda leaders, known as emirs, at age 14 or 15. In some cases the girls are forced into marriage contracts in which they are married to a local emir, but if he dies or is captured, they are obligated to marry his successor and if he is captured or killed, that one’s successor.

    At the same time, Diyala residents and officials say, militants from Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia have worked to instill their radical Islamist vision in the population. Almost immediately after moving in four years ago, they began holding religion classes for men and women.

    “Even in Baquba, my niece went to some; she was shaken,” said Shamaa Abad al-Kader, the headmistress of a school for girls in Muqdadiya who also serves on Diyala’s provincial council.

    “They gathered people in the villages; they brought women into Baquba and gave them lectures on how to behave,” Ms. Kader said. “These Al Qaeda men were going into the schools, into the mosques and they forced people to listen to them. My niece said the man who came to her school had a long beard and a sword with him.”

    Insurgent recruiters and religion instructors add promises to the threats, too, assuring people that they will go to paradise if they die fighting for Islam — a sometimes alluring dream for many in their largely poor, uneducated audience, said police officials and politicians in Diyala.

    In some cases, it may not just be a matter of co-opting or persuading vulnerable women. In one case in April recounted by Police Chief Khoreishi, a woman came to the station asking for protection; she was being forced to become a suicide bomber and trained to use an explosive belt by two members of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, one of them a close relative. The police now have her in protective custody, and two people suspected of being group members are in detention.

    Iraqi police officials also say that a few of the bombings involved women wearing vests that were exploded by remote control, though it is unclear exactly how many because explosions usually destroy telltale design details about the detonators.

    “There are two ways a suicide vest can work: there is a button they can push themselves and there is a remote control detonation,” Colonel Fateh said. “They follow her and if they think she is afraid to do it, then they will do it for her.”

    Mrs. Qaduri believes that knowing the basic profile of the women who tend to become suicide bombers can inform policing: if a woman has a male family member who kills himself or is killed in the name of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia or one of its sister organizations, it should be a warning sign that she or other close female relatives are at risk of becoming bombers.

    Her dream is to start an intervention program that would take the women out of their homes and put them in shelters where they could not harm themselves or anyone else.

    “We can predict that such a woman is ready to be used as a suicide bomber,” she said. “But at the same time, we don’t have any concrete proof that we can use to detain these women.”

    Ms. Mutlaq’s life and death track the profile described by Mrs. Qaduri and others.

    A native of the rural area south of Buhriz in southern Diyala, about 40 minutes northeast of Baghdad, she grew up in a landscape of date palms and orange orchards fed by irrigation canals.

    Her tribe aligned itself early on with Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, and her brother and husband became influential emirs, officials said. Buhriz was one of the most violent areas of Diyala in 2005 and 2006, with periods when there were nearly weekly bombings.

    Last June, her husband was killed while fighting in Baquba, the province’s capital, around the time that the American offensive in the city began, according to Baquba police officials. Almost exactly a year after that, her brother detonated his suicide vest during fighting with government forces.

    Twelve days later, she walked alone past the barricades.

    Iran dismisses demands to halt uranium enrichment
     
    July 6, 2008 04:07:00
          
         
     

    TEHRAN–Iran yesterday indicated it has no plans to meet a key Western demand that it stop enriching uranium, a day after Tehran sent the European Union a response to an international offer of incentives for halting enrichment.

    The content of that response has not been made public, but there was caution about the prospects of progress.

    "It was not something that made us jump up and down for joy," said one EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "We are in a holding mode until we get a chance to look at it more closely."

    A positive response could open the way to renewed negotiations that might help cool recent sharp exchanges between officials on both sides. In recent weeks, the United States and Iran have traded threats and warnings over possible American or Israeli military action.

    But an Iranian government spokesperson insisted Tehran would not change the central part of its controversial program.

    Uranium enrichment can produce either fuel for a nuclear reactor, or the material for a nuclear warhead. Iran insists its enrichment work is intended to produce fuel for reactors that would generate electricity.

    "Iran's stand regarding its peaceful nuclear program has not changed," said government spokesperson Gholam Hossein Elham, who added that Iran was ready to negotiate on its program "within the framework of the international rules and regulations."

    TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran will hit Tel Aviv, U.S. shipping in the Gulf and American interests around the world if it is attacked over its disputed nuclear activities, an aide to Iran's Supreme Leader was quoted as saying on Tuesday.

    "The first bullet fired by America at Iran will be followed by Iran burning down its vital interests around the globe," the students news agency ISNA quoted Ali Shirazi as saying in a speech to Revolutionary Guards.

    The United States and its allies suspect Iran is trying to build nuclear bombs. Tehran says its program is peaceful.

    "The Zionist regime is pressuring White House officials to attack Iran. If they commit such a stupidity, Tel Aviv and U.S. shipping in the Persian Gulf will be Iran's first targets and they will be burned," Shirazi was quoted as saying.

    Shirazi, a mid-level cleric, is Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's representative to the Revolutionary Guards.

    "The Iranian nation will never accept bullying. The Iranian nation is a nation of believers which believes in jihad and martyrdom. No army in the world can confront it," he added.

    In Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's spokesman, Mark Regev, declined to comment on the threat to hit Tel Aviv, saying only: "Shirazi's words speak for themselves."

    Israel, believed to be the Middle East's only nuclear-armed power, has vowed to prevent Iran from acquiring an atomic bomb. The United States says it wants to resolve the dispute by diplomacy but has not ruled out military action.

    In April, Israel's Infrastructure Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who is a former army general and defense minister, told Israeli media: "An Iranian attack will prompt a severe reaction from Israel, which will destroy the Iranian nation."

    Shirazi's comments intensified a war of words that has raised fears of military confrontation and helped boost world oil prices to record highs in recent weeks.

    "We will make the enemy regret threatening Iran," Mohammad Hejazi, deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards, was quoted as saying by the semi-official Mehr news agency on Tuesday.

    ISRAELI MARKETS UNMOVED

    Tel Aviv is an Israeli coastal metropolis of about 2 million people. It was hit in 1991 by Scud missiles launched by Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein during a U.S.-led war with Baghdad.

    Unlike other major Israeli cities such as Jerusalem and Haifa, it is home to relatively few Arabs.

    The latest Iranian threats had little immediate impact on financial markets in Israel.

    "This has no relevance on dollar-shekel trade. I assume if we see a strike, there will be a reaction," said Neil Corney, treasurer for Citigroup's Israel office in Tel Aviv.

    "All this is sabre-rattling and Israel is trying to pressure the world to put some serious economic sanctions on Iran."

    Joel Kirsch, head of equities trading at the Leader Capital Markets brokerage in Tel Aviv linked a market drop on Tuesday to banks selling off in Asia, not tension with Iran. "The conflict with Iran is somewhat priced into the market," he said.

    Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if it comes under attack. About 40 percent of globally traded oil moves through the Gulf waterway.

    The Revolutionary Guards' commander of artillery and missile units, Mahmoud Chaharbaghi, said 50 brigades of his forces had been equipped with what he called smart cluster munitions.

    "All our arms, bullets and rockets are on alert so that we would defend the Islamic Republic's territory," Hemayet daily quoted him as saying.

    Senior officials from six world powers held a conference call on Monday to discuss the response Iran delivered on Friday to a revised package of incentives to curb its nuclear work.

    The United States, France, Britain, China, Russia and Germany offered the package last month and said Iran must suspend its uranium enrichment work before formal talks on implementing it.

    Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Monday his country would not stop enriching uranium and rejected as "illegitimate" a demand by major powers that it do so.

    Analysis: Will terrorists go nuclear?

    disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only
    by Claude Salhani
    Washington (UPI) Jul 7, 2008
    One recurring question that has been at the forefront of most intelligence agencies since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks by al-Qaida on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon just 1 mile outside Washington concerns the ongoing efforts by terrorist groups to acquire weapons of mass destruction: chemical, biological and mostly nuclear.

    Each of the NBC (nuclear, biological, chemical) weapons comes with a certain advantage and disadvantage -- for the terrorist, that is.

    Of the three sorts, biological weapons are quite possibly the easiest to safely reproduce in a lab, assuming one knows what to do. A biological agent, as a weapon of mass destruction or as a terror weapon, is the least expensive as well as the easiest to disseminate. A bio-agent does not need a delivery mechanism and can be transported by a single person. It can pass through customs and border guards undetected, given that it is odorless and colorless.

    All that is needed to spread an epidemic of botulism, for example, or mad cow disease, is to hang around a truck stop for a few hours until a semi pulling a load of cattle on its way to market in a nearby town drives in. Wait until the driver leaves his load unattended, then scrub a previously infected rag around the railings and the mouths of a few of the cattle, and let nature do the rest. The disadvantage, for the terrorist, is that the person carrying the rag is most likely to become contaminated himself (or herself). But with no shortages of jihadists queuing up to become "martyrs," finding two or three volunteers willing to die a horrible, slow and excruciatingly painful death should be no problem.

    From a financial and cost-effective perspective, biological agents remain most likely the cheapest and, in all probability, the most likely agent of mass destruction to become available to terror groups.

    In their haste to leave training camps and bases of operation in Afghanistan in the wake of rapidly advancing U.S. forces, al-Qaida agents left behind piles of documents, including videotapes showing tests and effects of chemical agents on animals.

    Chemical weapons are more cumbersome to produce; they require larger amounts to cause enough damage to leave a psychological scar; and they require a delivery mechanism, such as an artillery shell.

    Realistically, a bio-agent can cause far more deaths than a nuclear weapon, because it is not limited geographically, unlike a nuclear bomb. For example, an infected truck driver in Omaha infects a U.S. Army sergeant he met in a diner outside Tulsa, Okla. The GI travels by plane to New York, where he changes planes and boards one bound for Frankfurt. Again he changes planes, this time flying to Kuwait, where he joins up with several members of his unit heading into Iraq. Along the way the GI will have infected scores of people at every airport between Omaha and Baghdad. Those people in turn would have traveled on to Australia, South America, Canada, every European city and other parts of the world. Within a few days people from Sydney to Seattle could start dying.

    A nuclear device, on the other hand, would completely devastate the immediate area and, depending on its size, would contaminate everything in a radius of several miles, but the damage would be confined to the immediate area of detonation, plus the fallout zone; in addition, depending on the wind direction and speed, radioactive particles could be carried hundreds, if not thousands, of miles. But psychologically the image of a nuclear blast carries greater impact.

    Brian Michael Jenkins, who has just released a book titled "Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?" writes, "There is no doubt that the idea of nuclear weapons may appeal to terrorists." However, Jenkins stresses: "Nuclear terror can also have another insidious effect, one that imperils our very democracy. Terrorism does pose a terrible danger, but our fear of real and imagined threats must not persuade us to diminish our freedoms or our core values. There is no tradeoff between security and liberty. One does not exist without the other."

    As Jenkins points out, it is important to differentiate between real and existing threats. A perfect illustration is his description of al-Qaida: "Al-Qaida may have succeeded in becoming the world's first terrorist nuclear power without possessing a single nuclear weapon."

    (Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)

    US to consult allies before commenting on Iran nuclear response

    by Staff Writers
    Aboard Air Force One (AFP) July 5, 2008
    The US said Saturday that it would talk with allies before commenting on Tehran's response to a plan from six world powers offering Iran technology and negotiations if it suspends uranium enrichment.

    "We're going out to consult with our allies about what Iran's response means," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said aboard Air Force One, carrying President George W. Bush to the G8 Summit in Japan.

    She said the US was already consulting the "P5+1" group -- the five permanent members of the UN security council plus Germany -- on how to respond to Tehran.

    "We'll just have to see how that is received by others before we make a formal response," Perino said.

    Iran on Friday delivered its response to the package of incentives for it to halt the enrichment of uranium, which the west fears is aimed at producing nuclear weapons but which Tehran insists is peacefully-oriented.

    Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili has said his country submitted a "constructive and creative" response with "a focus on common ground," but he did not elaborate on the contents.

    On Saturday however Tehran offered to negotiate on its nuclear drive but without giving up uranium enrichment.

    "Iran will not go back on its rights on the nuclear issue," government spokesman Gholamhossein Elham said.

    "Iran insists on negotiations (with world powers) while respecting its rights and avoiding any loss of international rights," he said, referring to Tehran's refusal to give up on nuclear enrichment.

    The United States on Thursday maintained its demand that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment as a condition for Washington participating in formal nuclear talks with Tehran, although it did not rule out less strict pre-negotiations.

    Netherlands bans Iranian students from nuclear studies

    by Staff Writers
    The Hague (AFP) July 4, 2008
    The Netherlands will ban Iranian students from studying nuclear technology, a source of tension between Iran and world powers, at its universities, the government said Friday.

    "It is forbidden... to grant Iranian nationals access to special training or teaching that could contribute to nuclear proliferation activities in Iran and the development of systems for transmitting nuclear arms," the foreign ministry said in a statement.

    Some powers including the United States suspect Iran of seeking to develop a nuclear bomb. Iran insists its nuclear program is aimed at producing energy to serve a growing population.

    Friday's measure adds to a Dutch decree adopting international sanctions against Iran that were put in place last year.

    It bans Iranians notably from the nuclear reactor in Borssele in the southeastern Netherlands, and from a test reactor at the Delft University of Technology.

    The ministry said the ban does not cover undergraduate studies up to bachelor's degree level, which are considered not to be specialised, and that it will consider requests for exceptions to be made.

    Iran threatens to "burn" Tel Aviv, U.S. targets

    Iran threatened to "burn" Tel Aviv and U.S. targets in response to any attack on its nuclear sites.

    "The first bullet fired by America at Iran will be followed by Iran burning down its vital interests around the globe," the Iranian news agency ISNA on Tuesday quoted Ali Shirazi, a senior aide to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as saying.

    "The Zionist regime is pressuring White House officials to attack Iran. If they commit such a stupidity, Tel Aviv and U.S. shipping in the Persian Gulf will be Iran's first targets and they will be burned."

    The remarks further ratcheted up international concern that Iran's refusal to abandon nuclear projects with bomb-building potential could bring on preemptive military strikes by Israel or the United States.

    There was no immediate response from Washington or Jerusalem to Shirazi's statement

    Iran tests missiles in Persian Gulf, Hormouz

    Last Updated: Wednesday, July 9, 2008 | 5:26 AM ET Comments10Recommend7

    Iran test-fired nine long- and medium-range missiles Wednesday during war games that officials say are in response to U.S. and Israeli threats, state television reported.

    Gen. Hossein Salami, the navy commander of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, was quoted as saying the exercise would "demonstrate our resolve and might against enemies who in recent weeks have threatened Iran with a harsh language."

    The war games were being conducted at the mouth of the Strait of Hormouz, a strategic waterway through which about 40 per cent of the world's oil passes.

    The report didn't provide details, but said the missiles fired included a new version of the Shahab-3, which officials have said has a range of 2,011 kilometres and is armed with a one-ton conventional warhead.

    The report comes less than a day after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad dismissed fears that Israel and the United States could be preparing to attack his country, calling the possibility a "funny joke.

    "I assure you that there won't be any war in the future," Ahmadinejad told a news conference Tuesday during a visit to Malaysia for a summit of developing Muslim nations.

    Iranian officials have been issuing a mix of conciliatory and bellicose statements in recent weeks about the possibility of a clash with the U.S. and Israel.

    Israeli military exercise a possible rehearsal: U.S.

    Israel's military sent warplanes over the eastern Mediterranean for a large exercise in June that U.S. officials described as a possible rehearsal for a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, which the West fears are aimed at producing atomic weapons.

    Iran says its nuclear program is geared only toward generating electricity, not weapons.

    For months, Ahmadinejad and other Iranian officials have said they don't believe the U.S. will attack because of its difficulties in Iraq, domestic worries and concerns over the fallout in the region.

    At the same time, Tehran has stepped up its warnings of retaliation if the Americans — or Israelis — do attack it, including threats to hit Israel and U.S. Gulf bases with missiles, and stop oil traffic through the vital Gulf region.

    In late June, Vice Adm. Kevin Cosgriff, then the commander of the U.S. navy's 5th Fleet, said any attempt by Iran to seal off the Strait of Hormuz would be viewed as an act of war. The 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain, across the Gulf from Iran.

    The Israeli exercise was widely interpreted as a show of force as well as a practice on skills needed to execute a long-range strike mission.

    Shaul Mofaz, an Israeli cabinet minister, set off an international uproar last month by saying in a published interview that Israel would have "no choice" but to attack Iran if it doesn't halt its nuclear program.

    Mofaz is a former military chief and defence minister, and has been Israel's representative in a strategic dialogue on Iran with U.S. officials.

    The Revolutionary Guards and Iran's regular army routinely hold exercises two or three times a year.

    Iran tests missiles


    Iran test-fired missiles capable of reaching Israel.

    Iranian forces test-fired nine missiles, including a long-range Shehab-3, as part of a large-scale
    war game Wednesday.

    Israel and U.S. assets in the Persian Gulf are within Shehab range.

    Hossein Salami, a commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, said in a televised address that "thousands" of missiles are ready for firing in a real war.

    Independent analysts, however, believe that Iran has a few dozen long-range missiles in its arsenal.

    The war game contributed to world jitters over the possibility that Israel or the United States could attack Iranian nuclear sites pre-emptively.

    ISTANBUL, Turkey - Suspected al-Qaida militants armed with pistols and shotguns attacked a police guard post outside the U.S. consulate in Istanbul on Wednesday, sparking a gunbattle that left three attackers and three officers dead.

    Turkish and U.S. officials publicly labeled the shooting a terrorist attack and a police official in Istanbul told The Associated Press that authorities suspected al-Qaida was behind it. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief journalists on the investigation.

    The U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Turkey's foreign ministry said security around all American diplomatic missions in Turkey had been increased.

    Yavuz Erkut Yuksel, a bystander, told CNN-Turk television the attackers emerged from a vehicle and surprised the guard.

    "One of them approached a policeman while hiding his gun and shot him in the head," Yuksel said.

    Footage from a security camera at the site showed four armed and bearded men emerging from a car and killing a traffic policeman, then running toward a guard post some 50 yards away as other policemen fired back, the Dogan news agency reported.

    The shootout caused panic and scattered people who were waiting in a line for visas. U.S. security personnel went inside the compound because they are not authorized to engage in armed action on Turkish soil, Dogan said.

    A fourth policeman and the driver of a towing vehicle were wounded in the attack, Istanbul Gov. Muammer Guler said.

    U.S. Ambassador Ross Wilson said the consul general in Istanbul, Sharon Wiener, told him that that consulate staff were "safe and accounted for."

    Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Wednesday that she did not know who was responsible and for the attack and she would soon talk with Turkey's foreign minister.

    "Obviously first of all the United States deeply regrets the loss of life and condolences go out to the families of those who were killed," Rice saida as she traveled to Tbilisi, Georgia. "I know that some policemen were among those who died and we very much appreciate what was clearly a very rapid and proper response from the government to try to deal with the security situation in front of our consulate."

    At least two of the attackers were Turkish nationals, Guler said. Police said they were pursuing at least one attacker who escaped in a car after the attack outside the high-walled consulate compound in the residential Istinye district around 11 a.m.

    NTV television, citing police sources, said officials feared the car might be loaded with explosives. Police would not confirm that report.

    Interior Minister Besir Atalay said at the scene that there had been no claim of responsibility and police would not reveal the identities of the attackers and their possible affiliations for the sake of the investigation.

    Television footage showed four people lying on the ground at the foot of the consulate's wall before officials removed the bodies.

    "The Turkish police responded quickly and effectively. We are deeply grateful for the work that they do to protect our official U.S. government establishments here," Wilson said. "It is, of course, inappropriate now to speculate on who may have done this or why. It is an obvious act of terrorism. Our countries will stand together and confront this, as we have in the past."

    The secure U.S. consulate building was built after homegrown Islamic militants linked to al-Qaida carried out suicide bombings in 2003 that targeted two synagogues, the British Consulate and a British bank in Istanbul. Those attacks killed 58 people.

    "There is no doubt that this is a terrorist attack," said Guler, who described the three slain policemen as "martyred."

    The shooting coincided with the visit to Istanbul of top American officials involved in the fight against illegal drugs. Michele Leonhart, acting administrator of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and Scott Burns, deputy director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, were attending an anti-drug conference in another part of Istanbul Wednesday morning. It was not clear if they had planned to visit the consulate but visiting U.S. delegations almost always visit diplomatic missions.

    Istanbul prosecutor Aykut Cengiz Engin said the attackers were armed with pistols and shotguns. Forensic teams were seen examining a shotgun on the ground.

    The consulate occupies an imposing structure on a hill in Istinye, a densely residential neighborhood along the Bosporus Strait on the European side of Istanbul.

    A reporter for The Associated Press who visited the consulate last week drove unimpeded past an entrance for the public and parked on a residential street two blocks away. The area directly in front of the entrance was kept clear of vehicles.

    Several guards stood in separate locations outside the entrance, but weapons were not on display; Turkish civilians seeking visas and other documents sat at cafes across the street.

    ---

    Associated Press Chief of Bureau in Turkey, Christopher Torchia, and AP writers Selcan Hacaoglu in Ankara and Murad Sezer in Istanbul contributed to this report.

     

    By SUZAN FRASER Associated Press Writer

    Iran test-fires more missiles in Persian Gulf: reports

    Last Updated: Thursday, July 10, 2008 | 7:11 AM ET Comments3Recommend4

    Iran reportedly test-fired long-range missiles for the second day in a row Thursday in a show of strength against potential attacks by the U.S. or Israel.

    State television reported Thursday that the weapons have "special capabilities" and included missiles launched from naval ships in the Persian Gulf, along with torpedoes and surface-to-surface missiles.

    A brief video clip showed two missiles fired simultaneously in the darkness.

    The news came hours after U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Iran that Washington will not back down in the face of threats.

    "We are sending a message to Iran that we will defend American interests and the interests of our allies," Rice said Thursday in Georgia at the close of a three-day Eastern European trip.

    Oil prices jump after threat to close waterway

    Wednesday's missile tests were conducted at the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which about 40 per cent of the world's oil passes.

    Iran threatened to shut down traffic in the strait if attacked.

    Oil prices jumped on news of Wednesday's tests, rising $1.44 to $137.48 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    Among the missiles tested Wednesday was a new version of the Shahab-3 that officials say has a range of more than 2,000 kilometres and is armed with a more than one-tonne conventional warhead.

    With a missile of that range, Turkey, the Arabian peninsula, Afghanistan and Pakistan are within striking distance.

    French company pulls plans to invest

    Meanwhile, French energy giant Total SA said Thursday it will not invest in Iran because it is too risky.

    "The conditions are not present for investing in Iran today," said Total SA spokeswoman Lisa Wiler. "We hope that the political relations will improve so that we can invest."

    Total SA had been in talks to develop a liquefied natural gas project linked to Iran's South Pars gas field with Malaysia's Petronas.

    The field is being developed with the expectation of producing 26 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day when completed in 2014.

    The company wouldn't say whether Total SA was pulling out of South Pars or overall investment in Iran.

    Companies under pressure from U.S., allies

    The news raises questions about the future of western involvement in developing gas reserves in Iran, which has the world's second-largest natural gas reserves after Russia.

    Total and other companies had been under rising pressure from the U.S. and its allies over involvement in Iran as tensions mount over Iran's nuclear program.

    The U.S. and other countries fear the program is aimed at building weapons, though Tehran insists it is for producing nuclear energy.

    Chief executive Christophe de Margerie expressed frustration at U.S. pressure on European energy investors in both Iran and Iraq.

    "You take two major countries [Iran and Iraq] out of the system and then you say, 'There is not enough oil and gas.' Oh no, surprise, surprise," he was quoted by the Financial Times as saying Thursday.

    <>
    Pierre Ber (oqt@rogers.com) has sent you this article.
    Personal Message:
    Reuters Thomson Reuters
    Iran tests more missiles, U.S. vows to defend allies
    Thu Jul 10 11:24:36 UTC 2008

    By Edmund Blair

    TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran tested more missiles in the Gulf on Thursday, state media said, and the United States pledged to defend its allies against any Iranian aggression.

    Washington, which fears Tehran wants to master technology to build nuclear weapons, said after Iran test-fired nine missiles on Wednesday that Tehran should halt further tests if it wanted to gain the world's trust.

    Speculation that Israel could bomb Iran has mounted since a big Israeli air drill last month. U.S. leaders have not ruled out military options if diplomacy fails to end the nuclear row.

    Iran has responded by saying it will strike back at Tel Aviv, as well as U.S. interests and shipping, if it is hit. Tehran insists its nuclear program has only civilian goals.

    Iran has said missiles fired during wargames under way in the Gulf included ones that could hit Israel and U.S. bases.

    U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on a visit to the former Soviet republic of Georgia that Washington would defend American interests and those of its allies.

    "We take very, very strongly our obligation to help our allies defend themselves and no one should be confused about that," Rice said after meeting Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

    After Iran's missile tests on Wednesday, Rice suggested its actions justified U.S. plans for an anti-missile shield with bases in eastern Europe, a project Russia strongly opposes.

    Iranian state TV and radio said the Revolutionary Guards -- the ideologically driven wing of Iran's armed forces -- fired ground-to-sea, surface-to-surface and sea-to-air missiles overnight. Long-range missiles were also launched.

    CHINA URGES RESTRAINT

    "The ... maneuver brings power to the Islamic Republic of Iran and is a lesson for enemies," Guards Commander-in-Chief Mohammad Ali Jafari was quoted as saying.

    Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for Gulf oil exports, if it is attacked. Thursday's exercises involved divers and speedboats, as well as the launch of a high-speed torpedo called Hout, state media said.

    Wednesday's tests rattled global oil markets, pushing up the price of oil. Crude prices have dipped in recent days but have hit a series of record highs this year partly on Iran tensions.

    China urged restraint in the row over Iran's nuclear program but avoided direct condemnation of Tehran for test- firing the missiles. Wednesday's missile maneuvers had drawn criticism from the United States and European countries.

    "We express our concern about these developments," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao told a news conference when asked about Iran's missile tests.

    Liu welcomed the prospect of fresh talks on the nuclear program being pursued by Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer and China's third biggest crude supplier.

    The United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China have offered Iran incentives to curb its nuclear work. Tehran rejects their demand that it suspend uranium enrichment.

    The European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, representing the six powers, is expected to meet Iranian officials to discuss Iran's response to the package. Solana's spokeswoman said on Wednesday no place or date had been set.

    Russia, which is building Iran's first and so far only nuclear power plant, and China have been resisting U.S.-led calls for expanding U.N. sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

    Sanctions have made Western firms increasingly wary about investing. France's Total said on Thursday it would not invest for now in a big gas deal due to political tensions.

    Iran has brushed off the impact of Western caution saying it has a big enough cash pile from windfall oil earnings to carry out the project itself or find other interested parties.

    "This is our message. We will proceed with development with or without them," Iranian Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari told journalists when asked about the latest comments from Total.

    (Additional reporting by Arshad Mohammed in Tbilisi; editing by Philippa Fletcher)


    TEHRAN, Iran - Iran test-fired more long-range missiles overnight in a second round of exercises meant to show that the country can defend itself against any attack by the U.S. or Israel, Iranian state television reported Thursday.

    The weapons have "special capabilities" and included missiles launched from naval ships in the Persian Gulf, along with torpedoes and surface-to-surface missiles, the broadcast said. It did not elaborate.

    A brief video clip showed two missiles being fired simultaneously in the darkness.

    The report came hours after Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Iran that Washington will not back down in the face of threats against Israel.

    "We are sending a message to Iran that we will defend American interests and the interests of our allies," Rice said Thursday in Georgia at the close of a three-day Eastern European trip.

    Among the missiles Iran said it tested Wednesday was a new version of the Shahab-3, which officials have said has a range of 1,250 miles and is armed with a 1-ton conventional warhead.

    That would put Israel, Turkey, the Arabian peninsula, Afghanistan and Pakistan all within striking distance.

    Wednesday's missile tests were conducted at the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which up to 40 percent of the world's oil passes. Iran has threatened to shut down traffic in the strait if attacked.

    Another Iranian state channel, Press TV, quoted a senior Republican Guard commander Thursday as saying Iran would maintain security in the Strait of Hormuz and the larger Gulf.

    Gen. Mohammad Hejazi, chief of the Guards' joint staff, called the missile tests a "defensive measure against invasions," according to the channel's Web site.

    Iran will not jeopardize the interests of neighboring countries, he said without elaborating.

    Oil prices jumped on news of Wednesday's tests, rising $1.44 to $137.48 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

     

    By NASSER KARIMI Associated Press Writer

    TBILISI, Georgia - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Iran on Thursday that the United States will not back down in the face of Iranian threats against Israel.

    Iranian officials have strongly suggested the country's missile test on Wednesday was itself a warning to Israel not to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel has left that option open.

    "We are sending a message to Iran that we will defend American interests and the interests of our allies," Rice said at the close of a three-day Eastern European trip.

    Rice noted U.S. efforts to increase its own security presence in the Persian Gulf and the defense capabilities of U.S. allies there.

    "We take very very strongly our obligations to help our allies defend themselves and no one should be confused about that," she said.

    Rice tied the latest Iranian missile test and rhetoric to U.S. plans for a future missile shield, which would theoretically protect Eastern Europe from missiles launched from Iran.

    The system would place radar interceptors in the Czech Republic, a former Soviet satellite, and missiles in Poland. That has drawn protests from Russia, who says that's uncomfortably close.

    Such a missile defense system "will make it more difficult for Iran to threaten and ... say terrible things, because their missiles won't work," Rice said.

    Rice's trip to Eastern Europe highlighted the troubled U.S. relationship with Russia. Rice's visit began with a celebration of U.S plans to base anti-missile defenses in countries once under the Soviet hand, and a warning from Russia that it may respond with unspecified military action. It ended with a public display of close U.S. ties to Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, a Russian nemesis.

    Georgia's relations with Russia have deteriorated since Saakashvili came to power in 2004. Saakashvili is pushing for Georgia's integration into the West and its NATO military alliance; Moscow sees Georgia as part of its sphere of influence.

    Appearing at a news conference with Rice, Saakashvili thanked the U.S. for its support of Georgia's territorial integrity and criticized Russia for conducting what he called a "post Cold War land grab." He joked about an incident earlier this week in which Russian planes allegedly flew near the Georgian capital.

    "It looks like some people have not noticed that the Cold War is over," he said.

    Rice said Russia had a responsibility to restore stability in Georgia and that Russia should "behave in that way - resolving and solving the problem and not contributing to it."

    Earlier, Rice met with Georgian opposition politicians and social activists, telling them the United States supported Georgia's struggles for democracy and pluralism following flawed elections won earlier this year by Saakashvili, the U.S.-backed president.

    Rice had all but dared Moscow to critique her visit to this former Soviet republic locked in a shoving match with Russia that has seen Russia close its border with Georgia and impose trade and other restrictions.

    Georgia has long accused Russia of aiming to annex Abkhazia and another separatist Georgian region, South Ossetia. Both have been outside the Georgian government's control since the end of separatist wars in the mid-1990s.

    Russia does not formally recognize either region's separatist government, but it maintains close contacts with them and has granted passports to most of the regions' residents. Russia has peacekeeping forces in both regions; Georgia accuses the Russian forces of supporting the separatists.

    Moscow recently sent in additional forces, a move Saakashvili denounced as "aggression."

    "It is very important that all parties reject violence as an option. There must be a peaceful resolution and that's what we'll work for," Rice said, speaking with Saakashvili outside the president's future headquarters. The partly-built structure was draped with a three-story drapery painted to resemble the design of the finished building.

    Georgia has said it suspects Russia of using peacekeeping troops as a cover to bring artillery and other heavy weapons into Abkhazia, and has flown pilotless reconnaissance drones over the breakaway region.

    Georgia accused Russia of shooting down a spy drone earlier this year, which Russia denied. U.N. observers studied video footage and concluded that a Russian fighter did shoot down the drone.

    The Abkhazia dispute was a chief reason for Rice's visit. U.S. officials say Georgia is not blameless but that Russia has helped make the situation truly dangerous.

    Russia's president, Dmitry Medvedev, met with President Bush during the Group of Eight summit in Japan this week and told him that Russia would like "to normalize our relations with Georgia, but so far we do not see sufficient will" on the part of the Georgian leadership, aide Sergei Prikhodko said.

     

    By ANNE GEARAN AP Diplomatic Writer

    Iran tests more missles


    Iran for the second straight day test-fired missiles capable of reaching Israel.

    Thursday's tests were a continuation of large-scale war games that began Wednesday, when Iran tested a long-range Shehab-3 missile, according to the Iranian news agency Fars.

    "This is a challenge not only for Israel but for the entire world," Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in an address Thursday evening. "The focus now is sanctions and diplomatic action. Israel is the strongest country in the region, and it has proven in the past that it is not afraid to act when its vital interests are threatened."

    Barak said Israel would take into account "a potential for confrontation" in the responses of enemies such as Hamas and Hezbollah to an attack on Iran. He also expressed hope that peace agreements would be reached with the Palestinians and Syrians despite the threat from Iran.

    Tuesday, too, nuclear physicist Peter D. Zimmerman, former chief scientist of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee., wrote in the New York Times that all of Iran’s activities, especially in uranium enrichment, are evidence that its “near-term ability to make nuclear weapons is gathering strength.”

    Once Iran begins enriching uranium to weapons grade on an assembly-line basis, he said “it could transfer this material to groups such as Hizballah and Hamas.”

    Israel has 'amber light' on Iran attack


    President Bush has given Israel an "amber light" to prepare for a military strike against Iran, a Pentagon official said.

    Britain's Sunday Times reported that a senior Pentagon official said the U.S. president told Israel that he would back a military strike on Iran's main nuclear sites if diplomatic talks fail.

    “Amber means get on with your preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us when you’re ready,” The Times quoted the official as saying.

    But amber will not turn to green without a workable military proposal from Israel and proof that Iran is planning to launch an attack of its own, the official said.

    The report adds that Israel cannot expect to receive any help from U.S. troops and will not have access to U.S. military bases nearby in Iraq for refueling or other support.

    “It’s really all down to the Israelis," the official told the Times. "This administration will not attack Iran. This has already been decided. But the president is really preoccupied with the nuclear threat against Israel and I know he doesn’t believe that anything but force will deter Iran.”

    Pentagon officials are opposed to a strike on Iran, in part out of concern that it will put U.S. soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan in danger.

    The Times reported that there has been speculation that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is facing a major corruption scandal at home, would order an attack on Iran to take attention away from his problems. The Times quoted one of Olmert's closest friends as saying that “in three months’ time it will be a different Middle East."

    Iran Warns It Would Destroy Israel And 32 US Bases If Attacked

    File photo: Iran test fires it's missiles during military desert games in 2006. Photo credit: AFP.
    by Staff Writers
    Tehran (RIA Novosti) Jul 14, 2008
    Iran's armed forces would launch devastating strikes against Israel and 32 American bases in the Mideast if these countries were to attack, a senior military official said on Saturday.

    Iran carried out a series of missile tests this week in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to issue a warning that it would defend Israel in the event of an Iranian attack. Israel's Air Force last month conducted drills seen as a rehearsal for an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

    If the U.S. and Israel were to attack Iran, "before the dust from these attacks settles on the ground, our armed forces will strike the very heart of Israel and 32 U.S. military bases in the region," the Iranian Supreme Leader's representative in the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Mujtaba Zolnur, said.

    "If our enemies take such a misguided step and attack Iran, our armed forces will give a devastating response," he was quoted by the Fars news agency as saying.

    Iran test-fired on Friday several missiles with a range of 350 kilometers (217 miles). The tests came on the fourth day of the Great Prophet III military maneuvers involving the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval and air units.

    Iranian state media said earlier this week that the IRGC had successfully test-fired various classes of missiles including shore-to-sea, surface-to-surface and sea-to-air missiles.

    The Shahab-3 missile, launched on Wednesday, has a range of 2,000 km (1,240 miles) and would enable Iran to strike at Israel, as well as U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf region.

    The exercises provoked harsh criticism from the West, particularly the U.S., which demanded that Tehran cease work to develop ballistic missiles as potential vehicles for the delivery of nuclear weapons.

    Iran is currently under three sets of relatively mild UN Security Council sanctions for defying demands to halt uranium enrichment, which it says it needs purely for electricity generation. The U.S. and other Western states have claimed that the program is geared toward the creation of nuclear weapons.

    Iranian Threat Justifies Missile Defense, General Says
    Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:20:00 -0500

    American Forces Press Service


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    Iranian Threat Justifies Missile Defense, General Says

    By Jim Garamone
    American Forces Press Service

    WASHINGTON, July 15, 2008 - Iran's launch of a missile with a 2,000-kilometer range last week is a concrete example of the threat the world faces from missile proliferation, the chief of the Missile Defense Agency said here today.

    Air Force Lt. Gen. Henry A. "Trey" Obering, said the United States is concerned specifically about the threat posed by developments North Korea and Iran are making in their missile programs.

    "Iran is working on an extended-range version of the Shahab-3 and a new 2,000-kilometer medium-range ballistic missile, which they term the Ashura," the general said at a news conference.

    Iran also claimed that it had successfully launched an exploratory space vehicle in February, which, analysts concluded, also was a Shahab-3.

    Last week, Iran launched several short- and medium-range ballistic missiles capable of striking Israel and the U.S. bases in the Middle East. Longer-ranged missiles are capable of striking Europe.

    The U.S. concern with the spread of the technology was such that the current and previous administrations invested in fielding the missile defense program. "We needed to protect the United States and then to expand that protection for our deployed forces and our allies and friends in the European theater," Obering said.

    The layered missile defense strategy melds boost-phase defense, mid-course defense and terminal-stage defense together. Various systems from ground-based interceptors, to airborne lasers to sea-based platforms provide protection against a rogue regime trying to launch one or two missiles at the United States or its allies.

    U.S. officials are making great progress in integrating the missile defense systems with NATO programs, the general said. Obering discussed some of the systems' successes.

    "In the boost phase, we've had great success with the airborne laser," he said. The laser is mounted in a Boeing 747 and fires through the nose of the aircraft to destroy missiles just launching.

    "We have generated the power that we needed on the ground in a 747 fuselage mock-up, and we've also flown the aircraft," he said. "We've demonstrated the tracking laser performance and an atmospheric compensation laser performance. All that goes together to show that we can shoot down a boosting missile. And we're on track to do that next year in a flight test."

    Thirty interceptor missiles at bases in Alaska and California make up the only defense the United States has against long-range missiles, Obering said.

    As time goes on, the general said, U.S. defense planners are concerned where countries like Iran and North Korea will go. They worry that the missile proliferators will develop more and more complex countermeasures to go along with their missiles. The agency is working to counter those moves, the general said.

    Terminal-phase defense soon will receive another arrow in the quiver, as the agency prepares to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Air Defense system. The THAAD, which will come on line in the next year, shoots down missiles just inside and outside the atmosphere.

    Other agency projects include the launch of two space-tracking and surveillance system satellites and a test of missile interceptors scheduled July 18, Obering said.

    Tests have indicated the systems are working.

    "Overall, since 2001, we have now conducted 35 of 43 successful hit-to-kill intercepts," Obering said.

    Biographies:

    Related Sites:
    Transcript: Lt. Gen. Henry Obering Briefing
    Missile Defense Agency


    Pelosi, Itzik talk tough on Iran
    in speeches to Hadassah
    Stefano Paltera
    Hadassah National President Nancy Falchuk, left, introduces Israeli Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik, center, and U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi at Hadassah's national convention in Los Angeles on July 13, 2008.

    LOS ANGELES (JTA) -- Iran’s nuclear ambitions are a security threat to the entire world, two of the top female politicians in the United States and Israel told more than 1,800 delegates in attendance at the opening session of the 94th annual Hadassah convention.

    Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, and Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik of the Kadima Party on Sunday joined in warning the West not to underestimate the seriousness of the Iranian threat as did Hitler’s intentions in the years before World War II.

    “We must take the madmen in Tehran seriously,” Itzik said. “Their nuclear plans threaten not only Tel Aviv but also New York and Los Angeles.”

    Pelosi called for “far-reaching and tighter sanctions that recognize that Iran is a threat to the entire world,” adding that global security “demands that Iran give up its nuclear ambitions.”

    The San Francisco Democrat, who led a bipartisan congressional delegation to Israel in May to help celebrate the Jewish state’s 60th anniversary, demanded the return of Israeli soldiers held by the Iranian-supported Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist organizations.

    Pelosi said the wife of one the soldiers presented her with a set of her husband’s military dog tags.

    “I wore the dog tags when I was meeting the kings of Jordan and Saudi Arabia,” Pelosi related.

    She also warmly praised the work of the Hadassah Medical Organization and its two medical centers in Jerusalem.

    Pointing out that the Hadassah hospitals were open to anyone, regardless of race or religion, Pelosi told the delegates, “Hadassah accepts all patients, not because they are Jewish, but because you are Jewish.”

    Pelosi also called on the Jewish community to strongly support a series of health-related bills, ranging from stem cell research to Medicare reform, passed by both houses of Congress but vetoed by President Bush.

    “But it won’t be long until these bills become law,” she promised. “The next president will sign them.”

    Hadassah’s national president, Nancy Falchuk of Boston, standing between Pelosi and Itzik, referred to them jokingly as “stereo speakers” and praised the lawmakers as women pioneers who had broken the glass ceilings in their respective countries.

    Hadassah, the Women’s Zionist Organization of America, has about 300,000 female members in the United States and an additional 30,000 male associate members.

    The group's four-day convention here will end Wednesday.

    Analysis: Iran changes prelude to attack

    disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only
    by Shaun Waterman
    Washington (UPI) Jul 15, 2008
    Iran has named three new leaders to its Revolutionary Guard Corps, according to local news reports, a move said by analysts to be the latest in a series of changes to prepare the force to resist a possible attack by the United States.

    The appointments, made at a ceremony over the weekend and reported by Iran's Press TV, are "the continuation of a major reshuffling of the (corps) in recent months to make it more mobile and decentralized as a force to conduct irregular military activities against an invading enemy," analyst Rasool Nafisi told UPI.

    Press TV said the appointments were made in a decree by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

    The corps' ground forces and volunteer militia got new commanders, as did its base in Tehran, from which Nafisi said it would suppress any unrest in the capital.

    Brig. Gen. Mohammad Jafar Assadi, a longtime corps commander and veteran of the 1988 war with Iraq, was put in charge of its ground forces, while Hojjatoleslam Hossein Taeb was tapped to head the corps' Baseej militia of civilian volunteers. Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hejazi was appointed commander of the corps' Tharallah military base in Tehran.

    Press TV said the chief of staff of Iran's armed forces and other high-ranking commanders attended the ceremony held for the inauguration of the new commanders.

    Nafisi said Taeb was a cleric, considered ideologically very close to the supreme leader. "Like (Khamenei), he has made a special study of ¿¿ counter-sedition," said Nafisi, adding it was referred to as "knowing the enemies of the revolution."

    "That is not a very common thing."

    According to Nafisi, an Iranian-American who teaches at Washington's Strayer University and follows the corps closely, Taeb previously had been the deputy commander of the Baseej force, a militia of between 12 million and 15 million spare-time civilian volunteers he said was organized to "spy on their workmates and neighbors, take part in demonstrations of support for (the regime) and ¿¿ suppress (opposition) demonstrations."

    "They do whatever the regime requires of them," he said.

    The Baseej force is one of the five elements that make up the corps -- the others being ground, air and naval forces, and the notorious al-Quds brigade, which recently was designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department.

    The Quds brigade, Nafisi said, is "an independent force (in the corps) in charge of international activities ... spreading the Islamic revolution."

    He said the force recently had become "very powerful, almost like a second-tier foreign policy organization" behind the nation's Foreign Ministry.

    Nafisi said a few months ago the training for the Baseej militia had been expanded to include heavier weapons. "They are preparing to use them as a resistance force in case of invasion by the United States or Israel," he said.

    By contrast, Assadi, who now heads the corps' ground forces, is a veteran of the group's military operations, who led the paramilitary force that defeated the incursion by the Iraqi-backed People's Mujahedin Organization after the end of the Iran-Iraq war.

    Assadi, who has a degree in military strategy from an Iranian government institution, is an ethnic Lor from Iran's Fars province who started his career in the corps as a volunteer, said Nafisi.

    Hejazi, who in his new job would be responsible for suppressing any unrest in the capital, "is one of the most powerful (corps) commanders" who previously headed its ideological bureau, said Nafisi.

    "His new appointment as the commander of the Tharallah base ¿¿ means more power for him, and less worry for the leadership."

    Iran Says Shahab-3 Missile Has Longer Than Reported Range

    The Iranian missile tests came after the Israeli Air Force conducted military exercises involving over 100 fighters in early June. The exercises were widely seen as a 'dress rehearsal' for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Photo courtesy AFP.
    by Staff Writers
    Tehran, Iran (RIA Novosti) Jul 16, 2008
    Iran's Shahab-3 missiles have a range greater than the reported 2,000 km (1,240 miles), Iran's Fars news agency said on Monday, quoting the country's deputy defense minister.

    Iran successfully launched last week an upgraded Shahab-3 ballistic missile as part of the Great Prophet III military exercises in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, drawing a new wave of international criticism.

    "The recently tested Shahab-3 ballistic missile has a flight range of over 2,000 kilometers and features a high kill probability," Brig.-Gen. Nasrollah Ezzati said.

    "Our rockets could be a factor in preventing possible aggression from Iran's enemies, and also level out the balance of power in the region," he added.

    He did not specify the range of the rocket. The earlier reported 2,000 km would mean that Iran could strike at Israel, and U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf.

    The Iranian missile tests came after the Israeli Air Force conducted military exercises involving over 100 fighters in early June. The exercises were widely seen as a 'dress rehearsal' for an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

    The United States has not also ruled out a military strike against Iran if the Islamic Republic refuses to halt its nuclear program, which Western countries believe is a cover for a weapons program. Iran says it needs the program to produce electricity.

    Iran has reacted to rumors of an imminent attack by Israel and/or the U.S. by promising to deliver a "powerful blow" to any aggressor.

    High US official to attend nuclear talks with Iran, capping secret US-Tehran diplomacy
    Exclusive

    16 July: The announcement that Under Secretary William Burns will join the meeting the European Union’s Javier Solana holds with Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili in Switzerland this week makes official the secret diplomatic track afoot between Washington and Tehran, first disclosed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly on June 27.

    This step distances the Bush administration still further from Israel’s position which demands the curtailment of Iran’s drive for a nuclear bomb by all means, including military action. Israel is left alone in the arena.

    The understandings US and Iranian diplomats achieved in their undisclosed talks covered Lebanese political stability under a new national government dominated by Iran and Syria, and Syrian ruler Bashar Assad’s restoration to center position on the Middle East stage. Israel has been thrust to the outer edge of US Middle East policy while its mortal enemies are placed at the center.
    Israel’s indirect peace talks with Syria are now revealed as a smoke screen for Washington’s pursuit of a secret rapprochement with Tehran and Damascus.

    New Hizballah tactic: Missile ambushes for Israel aircraft and ships
    DEBKAfile Special Report

    16 July: Hizballah marked the conclusion of the prisoner exchange with Israel by launching new tactics consisting of anti-air missile ambushes against Israeli Air Force flights over Lebanon and anti-ship missiles against Israel naval craft cruising off its shores.

    Lebanon said Israeli warplanes had flow over the South, Beirut, Jounieh, Dahr al-Baidar, Wednesday and Thursday, while. Israeli warships had entered Lebanese waters.

    With the help of Iranian and Syrian military experts, Hizballah has ranged the length of the Lebanese coast a dense line of 1,000 Iranian C-802 anti-ship missiles, which have a range of 120 km.

    Hizballah has taken charge of the missiles while handing the Lebanese national army the task of attacking Israeli outposts at the Shaaba Farms enclave and the Mt. Dov slopes of the Hermon range

    Israeli Arab suspected in Bush plot

    An Israeli Arab was arrested for allegedly plotting to kill President Bush.

    A total of six suspects -- two Israeli Arab students from Nazareth who attend Hebrew University and four Palestinian residents of East Jerusalem -- were arrested by Israeli authorities for allegedly attempting to establish an Al Qaida cell in Israel's capital.

    One of the students, Muhammad Najam, 24, reportedly lived in a dormitory room overlooking a helicopter landing pad near the univeristy stadium. He filmed helicopters taking off and landing, and contacted Al Qaida via the Internet about bombing one of Bush's helicopters during his visit to Israel in May.

    WASHINGTON - European terrorists are trying to enter the United States with European Union passports, and there is no guarantee officials will catch them every time, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said Thursday.

    Chertoff's comments on Capitol Hill comes as the country is entering a potentially vulnerable period with the presidential nominating conventions coming up next month; the presidential election in November; and the transition to a new administration in January - all of which may be attractive targets for terrorists.

    In his last scheduled appearance before the House Homeland Security Committee, Chertoff said that the more time and space al-Qaida and its allies have to recruit, train, experiment and plan, the more problems the U.S. and Europe will face down the road.

    "The terrorists are deliberately focusing on people who have legitimate Western European passports, who don't appear to have records as terrorists," Chertoff told lawmakers. "I have a good degree of confidence we can catch people coming in. But I have to tell you ... there's no guarantee. And they are working very hard to slip by us."

    Chertoff and other intelligence officials have delivered similar warnings before, and he offered no new information about specific threats or an imminent attack.

    Chertoff reiterated his concern that terrorists could sneak radiological material into the country on small boats or private aircraft. This material could be used to create an explosive device known as a "dirty bomb."

    The Homeland Security Department has a strategy to protect against this small boat vulnerability and is testing radiation detection equipment in Seattle and San Diego ports.

    Chertoff said that getting out a regulation to prescreen and enhance security of general aviation aircraft coming to the U.S. from overseas is one of his top priorities.

    He also said he expects to approve new radiation detection technology this fall.

    Responding to a question from Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, Chertoff dismissed any rumor that he is on a list of potential running mates for Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee. Chertoff quipped that the only list he has for next year is a list of vacations.

    Chertoff's term as the country's second Homeland Security Secretary ends when a new administration takes over the White House in January.

     

    By EILEEN SULLIVAN Associated Press Writer



    A REASON WHY SITTING DOWN WITH A COUNTRY THAT HAS ONE INTENTION IN MIND IS USELESS UNLESS THEY GIVE THE THE IDEA OF USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS ON THE ENEMY. IF YOU RULE OUT FREEZING ITS ENRICHMENT PROGRAM THERE IS NOTHING TO DISCUSS. IT ONLY GIVES TIME BY TERROR STATES TO GET WHAT THEY INTENDED FROM THE START. IN THE GAME OF CHESS THERE ARE DIFFERENT OPTIONS. ONE IS RETREAT,BLOCK OR ATTACK. THE FIRST IS NOT A OPTION LEAVING THE OTHER TWO. WHICH ONE IS UP TO THE NEXT MOVE OF IRAN AS THEY GET CLOSER TO THEIR AGENDA. YOU CAN'T ALLOW THEM TO GET CHECK MATE SO ONLY TWO OPTIONS ON THE TABLE.

    GENEVA - Tehran on Saturday ruled out freezing its enrichment program, casting doubt over the sense of key nuclear talks between Iran and six world powers less than an hour after they began.

    The talks - with the U.S. in attendance for the first time - had raised expectations of possible compromise on a formula that would have had Iran agree to stop expanding its enrichment activities. In exchange, the six powers, including the five permanent United Nations Security Council members, would hold off on passing new U.N. sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

    But the comments from Keyvan Imani, a member of the Iranian delegation, appeared to indicate that Tehran was not prepared to budge on enrichment - at least going into the talks.

    "Suspension - there is no chance for that," he told reporters gathered in the courtyard of Geneva's ornate City Hall, the venue of the negotiations.

    The presence of Undersecretary of State William Burns at the talks - the first instance of the Americans attending such meetings - had led to hopes Iran would compromise on suspension.

    The enrichment issue is key because the activity can produce either nuclear fuel or the material used in the fissile core of warheads. Iran has defied three sets of U.N. sanctions demanding it cease its program, saying it has a right to its peaceful uses under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. But there is growing concern the Islamic Republic might want to generate the fissile core of warheads instead.



    Recent Iranian statements suggest Tehran is looking to improve ties with the United States, with officials speaking positively of deliberations by the U.S. administration to open an interests section - an informal diplomatic presence - in Tehran after closing its embassy decades ago.

    Although the U.S. says the Geneva talks focus only on the nuclear issue, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Friday they could also result in agreements to open a U.S. interest-protection bureau and have direct flights between the two nations.

    U.S. interests in Iran are now represented by the Swiss Embassy in Tehran.

    Iran and the United States broke off diplomatic relations after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. Official contacts between the two countries are extremely rare.

    Imani said Tehran had not yet received a proposal from the U.S. on opening a representation but would "study it positively" if it did.

    But Imani downplayed the presence of Burns - although the Americans had previously said they would not sit with the Iranians on nuclear issues unless Tehran was ready to stop all enrichment activity.

    "He (is just) a member of the delegation" of the six countries engaging Iran on the nuclear issue, he said.

    Imani also denied that the "freeze-for-freeze" formula - a stop to Iranian enrichment growth in exchange for no new U.N. sanctions - was formally on the agenda of the Geneva talks, saying the two sides were meeting to discuss common points of their diverging plans to ease nuclear tensions.

    The U.S. and its five partners remain committed to getting a full halt to Iranian enrichment. Still, Burns' decision to attend the Geneva talks shows that Washington may accept "freeze-for-freeze" - something less than full suspension, at least as a first step.

    "Freeze-for-freeze" envisions a six-week commitment from both sides. Preliminary talks meant to lead to formal nuclear negotiations would start, Iran could continue enrichment but only at its present level, and the U.S. and its allies would stop pushing for new U.N. sanctions.

    If this results in the start of formal talks, the Iranians would stop all enrichment temporarily. Those talks, in turn, are meant to secure Tehran's commitment for an indefinite ban on enrichment.

    On the eve of the meeting, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said the talks themselves give hope "that there can be a peaceful solution" to the standoff over Tehran's nuclear program.

    But he also told reporters he expects no quick changes from Iran, which has said "the essentials" - an apparent reference to suspending uranium enrichment - will not be on the table.

    ---

    Associated Press Writer Bradley S. Klapper contributed to this report from Geneva.

     

    By GEORGE JAHN Associated Press Writer

    US warns Iran as nuclear talks yield no deal

    EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana. Photo courtesy AFP.
    by Staff Writers
    Geneva (AFP) July 19, 2008
    World powers' latest bid to make Iran halt its nuclear programme stalled Saturday as high-level talks involving US and Iranian officials ended without a deal and Washington warned of possible further "confrontation."

    "It was a constructive meeting, but still we didn't get the answer to our questions," EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana said after the talks in Geneva that aimed to get Tehran to give up its disputed nuclear programme in return for a package of incentives.

    "There is always progress in these talks, but insufficient," he said, adding that the Iranians were expected to respond to the latest incentives within two weeks.

    He did not overtly address the question of further sanctions, but the US State Department after the talks warned Iran to accept the incentives or face "further isolation."

    "We hope the Iranian people understand that their leaders need to make a choice between cooperation, which would bring benefits to all, and confrontation, which can only lead to further isolation," spokesman Sean McCormack said in a statement.

    Detailing the proposals on the table Saturday, Solana said the international community proposed that "we refrain from (further) Security Council resolutions and for Iran to refrain from nuclear activity including the installations of new centrifuges" for processing uranium.

    "We are looking forward to an answer from Iran in this question... in a couple of weeks," he said.

    Russia's deputy foreign minister Sergei Kisliak, who attended the talks, was quoted by the Ria-Novosti news agency as saying that he too expected a response from Iran in two weeks.

    "We hope that the two weeks we agreed on with the Iranians will help Iran to specify its stance on our proposals," he said.

    Iranian, European and US officials, including US State Department official William Burns, attended the talks in Geneva's historic Town Hall as part of a bid to resolve the long-running dispute over Tehran's nuclear programme.

    In Washington, McCormack said Burns delivered a "clear simple message" that the United States would only engage in negotiations with Iran when it halts uranium enrichment.

    Western countries suspect Iran is secretly trying to develop a nuclear bomb and the United Nations has imposed several sets of sanctions against Tehran over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment.

    Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, insisting that its programme is designed to provide energy for its growing population for the time when its reserves of fossil fuels run out.

    World powers have offered to start pre-negotiations during which Tehran would add no more uranium-enriching centrifuges and in return face no further sanctions.

    Solana said that no fixed date had been set for this meeting, which could be held over the telephone and might only feature deputy officials rather than another high-level encounter.

    Iran's top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili described Saturday's talks as "constructive and progressing," in comments to reporters afterwards.

    "We have understood better our mutual positions," he said.

    "There are points in common and points that are not in common," Jalili added. "We have agreed to discuss this."

    The Iranian representative compared the diplomatic process to weaving traditional Persian carpets: progress in cases "moves forward in millimetres," he said.

    "It's a very precise work, in certain cases it's a very beautiful endeavour and hopefully the end result, the final product, would be beautiful to behold," Jalili said.

    The attendance of Burns, the number three official at the State Department, marked a major policy shift by Washington, which has not had any diplomatic relations with Iran since 1980 following the Islamic Revolution.

    McCormack said Burns did not meet or speak separately with any member of the Iranian delegation.

    related report
    Iran press hails 'taboo-breaking' US presence at talks
    Iran's press on Saturday hailed the presence of a US envoy at talks in Geneva on the nuclear crisis as a "taboo-breaking" move, calling on Tehran's arch foe to recognise its atomic rights.

    "The meeting is important. First of all the United States is participating in a meeting that is already aware that Iran's red line is suspending uranium enrichment," the reformist Etemad newspaper wrote.

    "Secondly, in the past 30 years these are the highest level talks between Washington and Tehran," it added.

    World powers have repeatedly called on Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment over fears it could be used to make a nuclear weapon, but Iran has always refused to make concessions on the issue.

    In a major shift by Washington, US Under-secretary of State William Burns will attend Saturday's talks in Geneva between Iran's top nuclear negotiator and the EU foreign policy chief aiming to end the crisis.

    Also present will be representatives from Britain, China, France, Russia and Germany.

    "The fact Iran has accepted to talk to the United States has broken the taboo of talking to Washington, but it is too soon to talk about a thaw between them," said Etemad.

    Hardline newspapers such as Jomhouri Eslami and Kayhan, the voices of Iran's clerical establishment, expressed glee over the US presence at the talks and interpreted it as a sign of US weakness.

    "Burns' presence at the Geneva talks emanates from the needs of the foreign policy of the United States and also shows the existence of differences among the world powers," said Kayhan, whose editor-in-chief is appointed by the supreme leader.

    For Jomhouri Eslami, the policy shift showed that the United States "is no longer a superpower and its power is fading. Their weakness showed from the beginning of the Islamic Revolution and this has intensified."

    "It is expected that the (Iranian) negotiating team makes attaining Iran's legitimate rights in the nuclear issue the main aim of these negotiations," it added.

    The conservative daily Resalat said that Burns' presence showed that the United States was prepared to live with the Islamic republic, almost 30 years after the revolution that ousted the pro-US shah.

    "His presence shows the change in the approach of the Americans," it said.

    "The Americans always choose the correct path but after testing all the wrong ways."

    Analysis: Nuke-proofing the U.S. border

    disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only
    by Shannon Bond
    Washington (UPI) Jul 18, 2008
    Confusion and miscommunication at border crossings allowed large amounts of potentially dangerous materials to enter the United States without adequate checks, a government investigation has revealed.

    In a report released this week, the Government Accountability Office, Congress' investigative arm, called on border patrol officers and nuclear regulators to do a better job of tracking and detecting radioactive materials.

    Such materials, which have many legitimate uses in scientific research, medical treatments and industry, are licensed by 35 states as well as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the federal nuclear watchdog. When they are brought into the country, the border patrol is supposed to check those licenses.

    But GAO investigators found "at one port of entry, (U.S. Customs and Border Protection) officers were confused about when to verify licenses and were routinely permitting large shipments of neutron-emitting material to enter the country."

    At other crossings, border officers told investigators they were following outdated rules for checking cargo.

    This is "particularly troubling," the report said, not only because it violates official policy, but also because some radioactive substances could be used to make nuclear weapons or dirty bombs, which use conventional explosives to disperse radioactive material.

    Radiation detectors scan nearly all the truck cargo that crosses daily into the United States from Mexico and Canada. The scanners are sensitive enough to detect even tiny levels of radiation, such as traces found in bananas, ceramics and even people who have undergone medical procedures, the report said.

    In 2006 undercover GAO investigators successfully brought radioactive material across the border using fake licenses. In response, the Department of Homeland Security instituted new rules requiring border officers to contact authorities if a shipment gives off more than trace amounts of radiation, to verify that all licenses are valid.

    But that updated policy was not communicated to all U.S. Customs and Border Protection personnel. "While we found officers generally were aware that radioactive materials and sources must be licensed, they typically did not take steps to verify licenses," the GAO said, and, as a result, the "task of preventing the smuggling of radioactive materials is made more difficult."

    Border officials have been issued reminders of the agency's policy, said Customs and Border Protection spokeswoman Erlinda Byrd. "People are reporting in the field that they are including it in their standard operating procedures."

    The GAO's concerns are "well founded," said P.J. Crowley, a national security expert at the Center for American Progress.

    While the likelihood of terrorists smuggling a nuclear weapon into the United States is "extremely remote," Crowley said, "if a terrorist is going to use an unconventional weapon, it is probably going to be a radiological device."

    But Crowley said it isn't easy to find a balance that keeps dangerous materials secure while also allowing access to them by scientists, doctors and companies that have legitimate uses for them.

    "Radioactive material is important in many areas, so you have to have available sources while making sure that you're keeping track of who has it and where it's going, and how it's being used, and also how it's being disposed of."

    This is where the nuclear regulators play an important part by tightly controlling who gets access to potentially dangerous material.

    "If you have an effective system of licensing and then an effective system of monitoring the movement and use of radioactive material (in the United States and other countries), then that takes the pressure off the border," Crowley said. "The border will still be important, but the border should be the last point of defense, not the only point of defense."

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is creating a Web-based system that border officers and other officials can use to check licenses. But the project is more than three years behind schedule and may not include state-issued licenses, which make up more than 80 percent of all licenses in the United States, the GAO said.

    "The complexity here is that this is not just a federal responsibility," Crowley said. "So part of this is making sure there is effective sharing of information across different jurisdictions so that you have as complete a picture as possible."

    Israel's foes seen as waiting for Bush exit

    Iran and Syria are rearming but unlikely to launch a war with Israel while President Bush is in office, Israel's military intelligence chief said.

    Maj.-Gen. Amos Yadlin said in a briefing Sunday to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's Cabinet that while Israel's arch-foes continue to be hostile, it will take more than a few months to complete a current round of arming their militaries and therefore they are unlikely to initiate a war before Bush steps down in January.

    Iran and Syria also want to assess conditions in the United States under Bush's successor -- be it Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) or Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) -- and do not want to prejudice the new administration with open bellicosity.

    But according to Yadlin, the Iranian- and Syrian-backed terrorist groups Hezbollah and Hamas may trigger small-scale hostilities on Israel's border with Lebanon or the Gaza Strip, respectively.

    Hezbollah, he said, was emboldened by last week's hostage swap with Israel and may try to kidnap more soldiers in order to force Israeli troops out of a disputed border zone, the Shebaa Farms. And while Hamas is largely keeping to a Gaza truce, Egypt's refusal to open its border with the coastal territory may lead to a Hamas-led or Hamas-inspired attack, Yadlin said.

    Office of the Director of National Intelligence - www.dni.gov

    Vision 2015 expands upon the notion of an Intelligence Enterprise, first introduced in the National Intelligence Strategy and later in the 100 and 500 Day Plans. It charts a new path forward for a globally networked and integrated Intelligence Enterprise for the 21st century, based on the principles of integration, collaboration, and innovation.

    Vision 2015 is available online at www.dni.gov.

     


    Analysis: Iran faces ultimatum on nukes

    Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator.
    by Claude Salhani
    Washington (UPI) Jul 21, 2008
    A two-week clock began ticking down the minutes Sunday after the Western powers' negotiating team, led by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, failed to reach an agreement with their Iranian counterparts over the nuclear issue.

    Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, joined Solana in describing their latest round of negotiations, held in Geneva over the weekend, as "constructive," despite the fact that Solana regretted that Tehran had still not given a final response.

    Solana, speaking on behalf of the Western powers, is reported to have offered Iran a major incentive package, hoping it would incite Iran to renounce its nuclear aspirations. And for the first time the United States was represented at the talks, by its third most senior diplomat. This also marks the first time that Washington participated in direct contact with Tehran over its controversial nuclear issue.

    Among the conditions insisted upon by Iran is for the Western powers to refrain from imposing additional sanctions on Tehran. In return for the freezing of additional sanctions, Iran would promise to refrain from installing any more uranium-enriching centrifuges.

    Russia, speaking through its deputy foreign minister, Sergei Kislyak, who attended the Geneva talks, said it is also seeking an answer within a two-week timeframe, according to RIA Novosti.

    Even Iran's maverick president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, held back on his usual rhetoric and described the talks as a "step forward." That did not prevent the United States from issuing a warning to Iran that the Islamic Republic would face "confrontation" if it failed to suspend enriching uranium.

    Addressing the Iranian people, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said that the United States hopes "the Iranian people understand that their leaders need to make a choice between cooperation, which would bring benefits to all, and confrontation, which can only lead to further isolation." There is, however, no guaranteeing his message would get across to the people of Iran.

    Yet despite signs of optimism, as feeble as they might be, the two sides appear to be engaged in a dialogue of the deaf. In spite of the ongoing negotiations, the Iranian side has made it abundantly clear it has no intention of freezing its uranium-enrichment program. This was repeated multiple times by Iranian officials. And that is the central point of any ongoing negotiations with Tehran.

    Western powers and Israel fear that once Tehran reaches the point where it can produce nuclear weapons, it would be in a position to follow up on multiple threats made by the Islamic Republic against the Jewish state. Repeated denials from Iran that it is not seeking to develop nuclear weapons, and that its nuclear program is intended solely for civilian ends, such as to provide electric energy, have not been taken seriously by the West and even less so by Israel.

    It is hardly a secret that Israel has been practicing how to take out the primary Iranian nuclear facilities. At the same time, it is no secret that an Israeli attack on Iran would be perceived, not only by Iranians but by much of the Muslim world, as having been approved by Washington. In the eyes of the Arab and Muslim world, it would matter very little if Israel attacked Iran's nuclear sites with or without the approval of the United States. The concept that Israel acted unilaterally and without prior approval from the White House would be inconceivable in most Arab capitals.

    The immediate effect of air raids against Iran's nuclear installations would very likely be to trigger a new wave of attacks against U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq. If that were to happen, the timing could not be worse, as the relative calm that has begun settling in Iraq over the last several weeks would be shattered before the first wave of attack planes were to return to base.

    With just over 180 days left for the Bush administration, which will vacate the White House leaving behind two unfinished wars -- Afghanistan and Iraq -- starting a third one with Iran in the waning days of the administration would be outright foolhardy. President Bush expected a quick, short war in Iraq, and now more than five years later the conflict in Iraq is far from over. As for Afghanistan, now in its seventh year of turmoil since the United States overthrew the Taliban, the Islamists appear to be making a comeback, stepping up attacks against government troops and foreign coalition forces.

    Given the recent (and not so recent) history of Western military involvement in the Middle East, there is perhaps a very good reason why there is no English word for "blitzkrieg."

    (Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.)

    Rice warns Iran of 'punitive measures' over nuclear drive

    by Staff Writers
    Abu Dhabi (AFP) July 21, 2008
    US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met Arab allies in the United Arab Emirates on Monday after warning Iran of "punitive measures" if it does not respond seriously in two weeks to an international incentive to freeze sensitive nuclear work.

    Rice sought to tighten the screws on Tehran after taking the unprecedented step of sending a top aide to meet Iran's chief negotiator Saeed Jalili at international talks in Geneva on Saturday.

    Rice, in Abu Dhabi at the start of an Asian tour, was due to be briefed on the talks by Undersecretary of State William Burns.

    Washington had hitherto refused to sit with Tehran on nuclear talks until Iran stopped enriching uranium.

    The meeting sent a "very strong message to the Iranians that they can't go and stall... and that they have to make a decision," Rice told reporters en route to Abu Dhabi.

    "It clarifies Iran's choices and we will see what Iran does in two weeks. But I think the diplomatic process now has a kind of new energy in it."

    The White House later said it expected Iran to reject the incentives package.

    "It is the position of the P5-plus-one that Iran should suspend its uranium enrichment, that we provided a very generous incentives package that they apparently are going to miss an opportunity to accept," said spokeswoman Dana Perino of the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany.

    Rice "agreed with the other members to allow Iran to have two more weeks but after that I think that Iran could be looking at, is possibly looking at, additional sanctions," she said.

    The six world powers have offered to start pre-negotiations during which Tehran would add no more uranium-enriching centrifuges and in return face no further sanctions -- the so-called "freeze-for-freeze" approach.

    "We expected to hear an answer from the Iranians, but as has been the case so many times with the Iranians what came through was not serious," Rice said, accusing Tehran of "small talk" and "meandering."

    British Prime Minister Gordon Brown echoed Rice's warning in an address to the Israeli parliament.

    Jalili insisted on Monday that the issue of halting enrichment had not even been raised.

    But Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Reza Sheikh Attar said that Tehran "will respond to every positive step of Washington with a similar response."

    Rice said diplomacy offered the possibility of both negotiations and the "possibility of punitive measures."

    "And we are in the strongest possible position to demonstrate that if Iran doesn't act, then it's time to go back to that track."

    She was referring to the Security Council, which has so far imposed three sets of sanctions on Iran.

    Rice said she did not expect any "imminent action" as August is a slow month at the council, but expected work to begin soon afterwards on drafting another round of "punitive measures."

    The showdown has stirred fears of Israeli or even US military strikes against Iran, as US President George W. Bush has insisted Washington would keep all options on the table. It has also sent oil prices spiralling upward.

    Rice said Burns's presence in Geneva helped strengthen diplomacy involving the five permanent Security Council members -- the United States, Russia, China, France and Britain -- and Germany.

    The United States has in the past met resistance for tougher sanctions from Russia and China, which have strong economic ties with Iran.

    Rice briefed Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed al-Nahayan on the Geneva talks and discussions on the Iranian nuclear file, the UAE's offical WAM news agency reported.

    She also met foreign ministers and senior officials from other Arab allies.

    Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari was on hand for the meeting of the "GCC+3" bringing together the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq.

    Rice said the discussions would cover the Middle East peace process, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan.

    WAM said Abu Dhabi's crown prince, whose country has strong economic links with Iran despite a territorial row, called for "diplomatic solutions" to the region's problems -- a position in line with repeated calls by Arab states in the Gulf for a negotiated settlement to the Iranian nuclear crisis.

    US: Iran likely to reject nuclear offer

    by Staff Writers
    Washington (AFP) July 21, 2008
    The White House on Monday signalled that it expected Iran to reject a US-backed incentives package to end sensitive nuclear work and warned Tehran may therefore face additional sanctions.

    "It is the position of the P5-plus-one that Iran should suspend its uranium enrichment, that we provided a very generous incentives package that they apparently are going to miss an opportunity to accept," said spokeswoman Dana Perino, referring to the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany.

    US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice "agreed with the other members to allow Iran to have two more weeks but after that I think that Iran could be looking at, is possibly looking at, additional sanctions," she said.


    Paying It Forward
    By Joshua D. Filler and Timothy L. Beres

    One of the 9/11 commission's many findings was that government's approach to homeland security was fragmented. Agencies often failed to share information or could not communicate adequately during a disaster. In the interest of speeding money to critical programs, some in Congress are considering bypassing the states in the homeland security funding process. Ironically, such a move would force the Homeland Security Department to fund local entities directly through fragmented grant programs.

    From the beginning, DHS and Congress determined that most homeland security grants should be distributed first to the states and then down to local governments and spent according to a statewide or regional homeland security plan for prevention, protection, response and recovery activities. The majority of that funding would go to local governments to carry out those activities.

    If one were to design the ideal structure to protect against terrorist groups or major catastrophes, the federal system would not be it. It is designed to diffuse power and control through a tripartite federal government with 50 sovereign states; thousands of semiautonomous counties, cities, villages and towns; and tens of thousands of public safety agencies. The states play a key role in integrating the federal government and local agencies in this massive homeland security network, and bypassing them would invite chaos.

    Homeland security grants through the states seek to enhance national preparedness and security by integrating capabilities across all levels of government. States have wide operational, legislative/legal, regulatory and financial jurisdiction, whereas local governments' authority usually starts and ends at the city or county limits.

    Issues such as strategic planning, information sharing, mass evacuation planning, communications, and the protection of interdependent infrastructure systems demand a broad, statewide perspective that balances national priorities with local needs and maximizes homeland security funds. When states are not allowed to perform this role, the result is misallocation of resources and duplication of effort.

    How can state government develop or enforce compliance with an interoperable communications plan if it has no authority over the federal funds allocated for such a plan? And in the absence of such compliance, will the nation ever have inter-operable communications?

    The states' role as integrator does not undermine the role local governments play in homeland security. Indeed, the majority of tactical on-the-ground capabilities, such as law enforcement and firefighting operations, reside with local governments.

    The federal government must reinvigorate its partnership with the states in developing and implementing homeland security programs. Cutting them out of the funding picture would further fragment government's ability to deal with all threats - manmade and natural. If some states are not performing, the problems should be identified and addressed. But the slowness with which some homeland security funds are spent has little to do with the states and virtually everything to do with antiquated local procurement laws.

    States must begin to speak more effectively as a cohesive unit on homeland security issues to ensure that all stakeholders have a clear understanding of their roles and many achievements in protecting the nation.

    Joshua D. Filler is former director of the Homeland Security Department's Office of State and Local Government Coordination; Timothy L. Beres is former director of preparedness programs for the agency's Office of Grants and Training.

    Bush Meets With Defense Leaders in Pentagon
    Wed, 23 Jul 2008 13:11:00 -0500

    American Forces Press Service


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    Bush Meets With Defense Leaders in Pentagon

    By Jim Garamone
    American Forces Press Service

    WASHINGTON, July 23, 2008 - President Bush met with Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and the members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff today at the Pentagon.

    Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney, National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and Josh Bolton, White House chief of staff, met with defense leaders in "the tank" -- a secure conference room in the Pentagon.

    "This is another in a series of meetings that the commander in chief conducts with his military advisors every quarter or so," Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell said during a news conference.

    The specifics of the meeting are classified, Morrell said, but he gave reporters a rough outline of the topics covered.

    "These meetings provide the president and his military team the opportunity to discuss at length how the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are progressing, what other security threats may be emerging around the world, and how our brave troops and their families are holding up under the strain of repeated and lengthy deployments," he said.

    The national security team undoubtedly would discuss the recently ended surge and what that has meant for Iraq and the region, Morrell said. "Security has improved so much in Iraq over the past year [that] the five additional brigade combat teams have now left the country, and yet violence remains at an all-time low," he said.

    The need for more troops in Afghanistan also would be high on the agenda, Morrell said. "I can tell you that there's been no secret made of the fact that commanders in Afghanistan have made it perfectly clear to the leadership here in the Pentagon that they need more forces sooner than later," he said.

    The Joint Chiefs of Staff will discuss with the president "whether or not they can meet the needs of the commanders any time soon," he added.

    Commanders in Afghanistan need three more brigade combat teams, Morrell said. "The secretary ... helped the president craft a statement which made it clear that this country is committed to providing additional forces -- an unknown but not insignificant number -- to Afghanistan next year," he said.

    Bush meets on a daily basis with members of his national security team. The last full discussion the president held in the Pentagon was March 28.

    Biographies:
    Geoff Morrell


    Information Sharing Environment: Definition of the Results to Be Achieved in Improving Terrorism-Related Information Sharing Is Needed to Guide Implementation and Assess Progress. GAO-08-492, June 25

    http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-08-492

    Highlights - http://www.gao.gov/highlights/d08492high.pdf

    Russia mulls regular bomber flights to Cuba: report

    by Staff Writers
    Moscow (AFP) July 21, 2008
    Russia may start regular flights by long-range bombers to Cuba in response to US plans to build missile defence sites in Eastern Europe, the newspaper Izvestia reported Monday, quoting an official.

    "Such discussions exist," the unidentified senior Russian air force official was quoted as saying, adding that the measure would be a response to the United States "deploying missile defence systems in Poland and the Czech Republic."

    It was not clear whether he meant permanently basing the bombers in Cuba or using the island as a refuelling stop, but former top defence ministry official Leonid Ivashov told the newspaper that Cuba was best used for brief stopovers.

    Cuba should be used "not as a permanent base -- this is unnecessary -- but as a stopover airfield, a refuelling stop," Ivashov was quoted as saying.

    Spokesmen for the air force and the defence ministry declined to comment about the report to AFP.

    Starting long-range bomber flights to Cuba would signal a reawakening of military cooperation by former Cold War allies Moscow and Havana. In 2002 Russia closed its last military base on the island, a radar base at Lourdes.

    Plans to fly long-range bombers to Cuba "would be a good answer to attempts to place NATO bases new Russia's borders," former top air force commander Pyotr Deinekin told the RIA Novosti news agency in response to the Izvestia report.

    In a speech last year, then president Vladimir Putin likened the US missile defence dispute to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, though he added that relations between Moscow and Washington "have changed a lot" since then.

    The discovery in 1962 that Moscow was secretly building nuclear missile launchpads in Cuba pushed the world close to nuclear war in a terrifying two-week brinkmanship between the Soviet Union and the United States.

    Last week, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned Moscow would take countermeasures against US plans to build an anti-missile radar facility in the Czech Republic and site interceptor missiles in Poland.

    Russia argues that the installations threaten its national security despite US assurances that they are directed against "rogue states" like Iran.

    US general warns Russia on nuclear bombers in Cuba

    General Norton Schwartz.
    by Staff Writers
    Washington (AFP) July 22, 2008
    Russia would cross "a red line for the United States of America" if it were to base nuclear capable bombers in Cuba, a top US air force officer warned on Tuesday.

    "If they did I think we should stand strong and indicate that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America," said General Norton Schwartz, nominated to be the air force's chief of staff.

    He was referring to a report in the newspaper Izvestia that said the Russian military is thinking of flying long-range bombers to Cuba on a regular basis in response to US plans to install missile defenses in eastern Europe.

    Izvestia cited an unnamed senior Russian air force official as saying such flights were under discussion. But it was unclear whether they would involve permanent basing of nuclear bombers in Cuba, or just use of the island as a refueling stop.

    In his confirmation hearing to become the air force's chief of staff, Schwartz was asked what he would recommend if Russia were to base nuclear capable bombers in Cuba.

    "I would certainly offer the best military advice that we engage the Russians not to pursue that approach," he said, adding that Russia would cross a "red line" if it did.

    A White House spokeswoman declined to comment on the Izvestia report because there had been no "official response from the Russian government."

    Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman responded to the report by saying, "That scenario is hypothetical and speculative at this point."

    Conducting long-range bomber patrols to Cuba would signal a reawakening of military cooperation by former Cold War allies Moscow and Havana, and resurrects issues that first arose with the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.

    The crisis, which brought Washington and Moscow to the brink of nuclear war, ended with an understanding that Moscow would remove its intermediate range missiles from Cuba and not introduce strategic systems in the island.

    The Soviets tested the understanding in 1970 when the Soviets moved to establish a base for nuclear submarines in Cienfuegos, Cuba.

    Moscow backed away from that plan, but began occasional flights by Tu-95 Bear reconnaissance aircraft from Murmansk to Cuba.

    The United States never challenged the Bear flights because the aircraft were not bombers, according to histories of the period.

    Another mini crisis erupted in 1979 with the discovery of two MiG-23 fighter squadrons in Cuba. Then president Jimmy Carter decided not to press the issue after concluding that the fighter-bombers were not configured to carry nuclear weapons.

    Over the past year, Russia has revived long-range strategic bomber patrols in the Pacific and north Atlantic.

    The Russian moves come amid rising tensions over the US missile defense plans, and warnings by Moscow that it will be forced to counter them militarily.

    Until now, US officials have shrugged off the stepped up Russian military activity, while insisting that a radar in the Czech Republic and 10 missile interceptors it plans to install in Poland pose no threat to Russia.

    White House press secretary Dana Perino recalled assurances US President George W. Bush offered Russian President Dmitry Medvedev two weeks ago at a G8 summit.

    "The president repeated that our missile defense system should not be seen as a threat to Russia, we want to actually work with the Russians to design a system that Russia, and Europe and the United States could work on together as equal partners and we'll continue to do that," she said.

    "We seek strategic cooperation with the Russians. We want to work with them on preventing missiles from rogue nations like Iran from threatening our friends and allies," said Perino.

    But Medvedev has warned that the missile defense project worsens regional security and will force Moscow to consider counter-measures.

    New Cuban nuke crisis threat

    disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only
    by Martin Sieff
    Washington (UPI) Jul 23, 2008
    Is Russia serious about deploying its nuclear bombers in Cuba to retaliate against U.S. ballistic missile defense deployments in Poland or Lithuania?

    The story broke Monday this week when the Russian newspaper Izvestia, citing what it described as "a high placed source" in the Russian government, said if the United States went ahead with its plans to deploy Ground-based Mid-course Interceptors in Poland or Lithuania, the Kremlin could retaliate by basing its Tupolev Tu-160 White Swan supersonic nuclear bombers -- NATO codename Blackjack -- in Cuba.

    The U.S. government took the threat seriously and lost no time in responding to it. On Tuesday, Gen. Norton A. Schwartz, head of USAF Transport Command who has been nominated to succeed Gen. T. Michael Moseley as chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force, told his confirmation hearing in the Senate Armed Services Committee that Russia would cross "a red line" if it made such a move.

    "I certainly would offer best military advice that we should engage the Russians not to pursue that approach," he said. "And if they did, I think we should stand strong and indicate that that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America."

    It should be noted the Russian government has carefully sought to avoid making any open threat or incendiary comments about the potential threat and it has carefully avoided being drawn out on the issue. The Defense Ministry in Moscow issued a statement saying the Izvestia story was palpably false and that it was even written under a pseudonym and quoted a non-existent organization among its sources.

    Nevertheless, the very possibility that Russia would deploy first-line strategic weapons systems capable of delivering nuclear weapons to the U.S. homeland from bases in Cuba, only 90 miles from the coast of Florida, would throw the entire strategic calculus of successive U.S. governments -- Republican and Democrat alike -- into complete disarray.

    Such a possibility has never been seriously threatened in the 46 years since the world came closer than ever before or since in its history to all-out thermonuclear war in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

    Then U.S. President John F. Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev reached a deal whereby the successive U.S. administrations left communist Cuba alone and in return the Soviets refrained from basing any offensive nuclear weapons systems or offensive weapons capable of delivering nuclear warheads to the U.S. mainland on the island.

    But all of a sudden this cornerstone agreement of Cold War and post-Cold War stability and security looks as if it might disappear overnight.

    The Tu-160 Blackjack is arguably the most formidable heavy nuclear bomber in the world. It carries a far larger payload and can fly far faster than its nearest U.S. counterpart, the B-1 Lancer. It does not have the stealth capabilities of the gigantic B-1, but it is far faster and more maneuverable. It can carry 99,000 pounds of munitions -- far more than the B-1 -- and its weapons payload options include stand-off supersonic, ground-hugging cruise missiles.

    The Tu-160 is unarmed, but it can fly at 1,380 miles per hour -- well over twice the speed of the U.S. Air Force's venerable old lumbering Boeing B-52 Stratofortresses.

    The Tu-160 is still in production, and it is believed that about five new ones per year are currently being delivered to the Russian air force. The total number of such aircraft currently deployed is believed to be quite high -- between 50 and 60 in all, assuming the older ones have been well maintained.

    It may be that the Izvestia report was just unfounded speculation, but Schwartz did not act in his testimony as if it was.

    The world may have just entered a dangerous new era of escalating bluff, threat and counter-threat between the two main thermonuclear powers. The world of our fathers' nightmares may be coming back.

    Commentary: $9-a-day jihadis

    Youngsters are being recruited by the Taliban and paid 1,000 rupees a day, or $9, to become jihadis. Would-be jihadi "martyrs" get the princely sum of $120, a big number in a part of the world where only 16 percent of the men and 3 percent of the women can read, and where there is no economic activity in parts of FATA and NWFP.
    by Arnaud De Borchgrave
    Washington (UPI) Jul 23, 2008
    Pakistan is "betwixt and between," neither civilian nor military rule, caught between the generation that shied away from democracy and the generation that embraced it, though not yet wholeheartedly. In fact, there is a power vacuum at the top, and homegrown Taliban extremists are sowing death and destruction in Peshawar, the storied capital of the North-West Frontier Province.

    Before leaving for the United States to confer with President Bush this coming weekend, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani flew to Peshawar for an emergency grand tribal jirga on what to do about a rapidly deteriorating situation. "Militancy and terrorism have plunged the entire region into a crisis, and tribal leaders should help the government in curbing militancy," he told the assembled elder Maliks from the seven lawless Federally Administered Tribal Areas where the Taliban and al-Qaida enjoy privileged sanctuaries.

    "You elders should talk to the militants to renounce insurgency," Gilani pleaded. "Those who lay down arms are our friends, and those who challenge the government betray the country. ¿¿ Our children need books and pencils, not suicide jackets." Some 150 Maliks have been executed by the Taliban, 62 of them for daring to speak out against the Taliban.

    Youngsters are being recruited by the Taliban and paid 1,000 rupees a day, or $9, to become jihadis. Would-be jihadi "martyrs" get the princely sum of $120, a big number in a part of the world where only 16 percent of the men and 3 percent of the women can read, and where there is no economic activity in parts of FATA and NWFP.

    In a teleconference organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Malik Naveed Khan, the inspector general of police for NWFP, which shares borders with all seven "tribal agencies," expressed alarm over the Taliban's raids out of FATA into his own province. "Peshawar," he said, "is threatened on several sides."

    Khan said, "It's like fighting the shadows of an invisible army. We're poor on the mobility side. We now have 500 constables being trained in anti-terrorist tactics, but they won't be on the ground for a year. ¿¿ Forty percent of our police force is not even in police buildings, so they can't defend themselves when attacked."

    The Taliban move in fast vehicles, carrying heavily armed fighters that outrun and outgun the police. In broad daylight, they torch barber shops where men are being shaved, as well as girls' schools. There is also much looting and kidnapping for ransom.

    In the past three years the Taliban have twice ignored deals signed with both the Pakistani military and the provincial governor. The Taliban movement is split in two: those whose main objective is Afghanistan, where they were defeated by the U.S.-led invasion in October 2001, and another wing whose target is NWFP and Baluchistan, which both border on Afghanistan, as well as Pakistan's other two provinces, Punjab and Sindh.

    Asked about his most immediate needs, Khan said, "We need concrete international intervention in the shortest possible time," but he then quickly added he did not mean U.S. boots on the ground. American fighters would simply turn the whole country against the United States.

    For a short-term quick fix, he explained, "We need choppers, APCs (armored personnel carriers), bullet-proof vests, job opportunities for the youth that are recruited by Taliban. We need something like what saved America from the Great Depression. We need $500 million a year for the next 10 years to build infrastructure" to make NWFP and FATA a sustainable economic development zone. The idea is to absorb FATA in NWFP and allow Pakistan's principal political parties to campaign in the tribal areas.

    Neither the provincial police nor the paramilitary Frontier Corps could possibly absorb choppers with trained pilots in less than a year. This leaves the field to a Pakistani army that was bloodied by the Taliban in FATA over the last three years and wants no part of what soldiers regard as a civil war.

    The NWFP police chief said the answer was a special force of 100,000 volunteers to confront the militants. "Everybody in the frontier areas is armed," he explained, "so now we must motivate them against the militants." The Pakistani government doesn't have a clear strategy for FATA, neither short- nor long-term.

    Before leaving for Washington, Gilani announced a 30 percent increase in the annual development program, including electricity, for FATA, which would still be peanuts given the magnitude of huge dirt-poor areas. Gilani also announced 100 new Lungi (turban) holders -- tribal elders -- in each of the seven tribal areas, as well as an increase in the allowance of Lungis.

    Two tribal elders of the Mamond tribe in the Bajaur agency never made it to the Peshawar pow-wow with Gilani. Their car was ambushed. It was the sixth attempt on Malik Shahjehan in two years. He had taken a stand against "foreign militants" -- i.e., al-Qaida volunteers -- in Bajaur. He was also opposed to the government's plan to abolish or amend the British-era Frontier Crime Regulation, legalese for the safe haven enjoyed by criminals from the rest of Pakistan, who know they cannot be pursued by federal authorities in FATA. This attack, Shahjehan did not survive. The second elder was critically injured.

    Why is all this critically important? Pakistan is one of the world's eight nuclear powers.


    Iran to get advanced air defenses soon


    Iran will acquire advanced Russian-made air defenses by the end of the year, Israeli sources said.

    Iran, which announced in December that it had ordered an unspecified number of S-300 ground-to-air missiles from Russia, will take delivery by 2009, Israeli defense sources said Thursday.

    The S-300 can track up to 100 targets at once and fire on planes 75 miles away. It would significantly challenge any Israeli or U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.

    According to the sources, it would take Iran six to 12 months to deploy and man the S-300s.

    Ashkenazi: Curb Iran's radical influence


    Iran is the source of radicalization sweeping the Middle East and must be stopped, Israel's top general said during a visit to Washington.

    "We are witnessing, I believe, a paradigmatic change in the Middle East in which radical countries and elements are trying to install a new order to replace the traditional national, secular one that exists today," Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi, on his first working trip to the United States, said in a speech Wednesday at the Israeli Embassy.

    "At the center of this radical axis is Iran, who seeks to achieve its regional aspiration of hegemony by upsetting the existing balance of power," he added, citing Tehran's nuclear program and support for terrorist groups in the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Iraq.

    "I believe it is therefore crucial that we block Iranian aggression, which may in turn weaken the radicalization process," Ashkenazi said.

    He made no mention in the speech of the possibility of Israel or the United States attacking Iran's nuclear facilities preemptively. But Israeli media quoted the general as saying in off-the-record briefings that the "military option" must remain available.

    Iran ends cooperation with UN nuclear arms probe

    VIENNA, Austria - Iran signaled Thursday that it will no longer cooperate with U.N. experts probing for signs of clandestine nuclear weapons work, confirming the investigation is at a dead end a year after it began.

    The announcement from Iranian Vice President Gholam Reza Aghazadeh compounded skepticism about denting Tehran's nuclear defiance, just five days after Tehran stonewalled demands from six world powers that it halt activities capable of producing the fissile core of warheads.

    Besides demanding a suspension of uranium enrichment - a process that can create both fuel for nuclear reactors and payloads for atomic bombs - the six powers have been pressing Tehran to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency's probe.

    Iran, which is obligated as a signer of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty not to develop nuclear arms, raised suspicions about its intentions when it admitted in 2002 that it had run a secret nuclear program for nearly two decades in violation of its commitment.

    The Tehran regime insists it halted such work and is now only trying to produce fuel for nuclear reactors to generate electricity. It agreed on a "work plan" with the Vienna-based IAEA a year ago for U.N. inspectors to look into allegations Iran is still doing weapons work.

    At the time, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei hailed it as "a significant step forward" that would fill in the missing pieces of Tehran's nuclear jigsaw puzzle - if honored by Iran. He brushed aside suggestions Iran was using the deal as a smoke screen to deflect attention from its continued defiance of a U.N. Security Council demand for a halt to uranium enrichment.

    The investigation ran into trouble just months after being launched. Deadline after deadline was extended because of Iranian foot-dragging. The probe, originally meant to be completed late last year, spilled into the first months of 2008, and beyond.

    Iran remains defiant. It dismisses as fabricated the evidence supplied by the U.S. and other members of the IAEA's governing board purportedly backing allegations that Iranians continue to work on nuclear weapons.

    Officials say that among the evidence given to the IAEA are what seem to be Iranian draft plans to refit missiles with nuclear warheads; explosives tests that could be used to develop a nuclear detonator; and a drawing showing how to mold uranium metal into the shape of warheads. There are also questions about links between Iran's military and civilian nuclear facilities.

    On Thursday, Aghazadeh appeared to signal that his country was no longer prepared even to discuss the issue with the IAEA.

    Investigating such allegations "is outside the domain of the agency," he said after meeting with ElBaradei. Any further queries on the issue "will be dealt with in another way," he said, without going into detail.

    Britain, one of those suspicious of Iran's nuclear activities, was critical

    "We are concerned by reports that Iran is refusing to cooperate with the IAEA on allegations over nuclear weapons," the British Foreign Office said in a statement. "The IAEA has raised serious concerns over Iran's activities with a possible military dimension. If Iran is serious about restoring international confidence in its intentions, it must address these issues."

    The IAEA asked in vain for explanations from Iran, and its last report in May said Iran might be withholding information on whether it tried to make nuclear arms. Reflecting ElBaradei's frustration, the report used language described by one senior U.N. official as unique in its direct criticism of Tehran.

    Aghazadeh's comments Thursday appeared to jibe with those of diplomats familiar with the probe who told The Associated Press that the IAEA had run into a dead end.

    A senior diplomat on Thursday attributed Tehran's intransigence in part to anger over a multimedia presentation by IAEA Deputy Director-General Olli Heinonen to the agency's 35 board members based on intelligence about the alleged weapons work. The diplomat, like others, agreed to discuss the matter only if not quoted by name because his information was confidential.

    Tehran dismisses the suspicions of the U.S. and allies, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday again vowed that his country would not "retreat one iota" from pursuing uranium enrichment.

    On Saturday, a U.S. diplomat had participated in talks with Iran held in Geneva, raising expectations that a compromise might be reached under which Iran would agree to temporarily stop expansion of enrichment activities. In exchange, the six world powers - the U.S., Germany, Britain, France, Russia and China - would hold off on adopting new U.N. sanctions against Iran.

    But participants at Geneva said Iranian negotiators skirted the freeze issue despite the presence of U.S. Undersecretary of State William Burns.

    Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Monday accused Iran of not being serious at the Geneva talks. She warned that all six nations were serious about a two-week deadline for Iran to agree to freeze suspect activities and start negotiations or else be hit with a fourth set of U.N. penalties.

    Aghazadeh, who is also head of Iran's atomic agency, played down the international complaints, but he also evaded a direct answer on whether Tehran would give any ground on an enrichment freeze.

    "Both sides are carefully studying the concerns and expectations of both sides," he told reporters.

    ---

    Associated Press writer David Stringer in London contributed to this report

    (This version CORRECTS SUBS 4th graf to correct Iran admitted secret nuclear energy program, sted secret atomic weapons program)

     

    By GEORGE JAHN Associated Press Writer

    Obama: A nuclear Iran would be a game-changing situation

    23 July: The Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama promised to bring “big sticks and big carrots” to make Iran stand down on its nuclear program, but take no option off the table.

    Answering reporters’ questions in the missile-battered southern town of Sderot, Obama stressed that preventing Iran acquiring a nuclear Iran must be of paramount concern for any US administration. “This is the single most important threat to Israel and the US.”

    The US senator denied he had changed his position on Jerusalem.

    ”Jerusalem is Israel’s capital,” he said, “and it should not be sliced in half in a two-state solution. This is a matter to be settled by the parties in final-status talks not by America. He found it “intolerable for Israeli civilians to have to live under missile fire in their homes and schools.”

    Earlier, he met Palestinian leaders Mahmoud Abbas and Salam Fayyad in Ramallah.


    Senior Israeli official: If nuclear talks fail, Bush will order attack between November and January

    20 July: This assessment was reported by Israeli national radio Saturday overnight quoting a high-placed “security-political” source.

    The source predicted that President George W. Bush would order Iran attacked between the November 4 presidential election and his exit from the White House in January.

    The quote was aired shortly after the six-power talks with Iran in Geneva – with US official participation for the first time – ended inconclusively, and just before Israel chief of staff Lt. Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi set out for Washington, to spend a week there as guest of Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

    DEBKAfile’s political sources describe the Israeli disclosure as a step aimed at slowing down the collapse of Israel’s stated policy of relying on international diplomatic pressure to thwart Iran’s acquisition of nuclear arms. As a high-risk step to derail the accommodations Washington and Tehran are on the way to reaching in their secret talks on a wide range of issues. Israel fears being abandoned and left out in the cold on all its fronts against Iran by these accommodations.

    Shin Bet chief: Hamas missiles menace Kiryat Gat – and even Ashdod

    22 July: The internal security agency director Yuval Diskin told Israeli lawmakers Tuesday, July 22, that he opposed the Gaza ceasefire the Israeli government approved with Hamas - and continues to oppose it - because it gave Hamas a lifeline. Diskin warned that Hamas has used the month’s truce to sow minefields to stall an Israeli counter-terror operation, while continuing to smuggle arms through Egyptian Sinai, building up its strength and refusing to release Gilead Shalit.

    Its extended range missiles can now reach Kiryat Gat, a town 21 km northeast of Gaza and possibly the big Mediterranean port town of Ashdod, 23 km to the north.

    Hamas’ war preparations and missile fire could only be curbed by an Israeli military presence in the Gaza Strip, the Shin Bet director said

    Top US military chief is convinced Iranians seek atom bomb

    20 July: Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Fox News he is convinced the Iranians are seeking to building an atomic bomb, “a very destabilizing possibility in that part of the world.” He stressed the US had the capacity and the reserves to attack Iran as a last resort.

    “I’m fighting two wars and I don’t need a third one,” said Mullen referring to Iraq and Afghanistan.


    IRAN HAS AN AGENDA AND WILL NOT STOP UNTIL IT HAS WHAT IT WANTS THE BOMB

    Iran's president says country has 6,000 centrifuges

     

    Jul 26, 2008 03:38 PM

    THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

    TEHRAN, Iran – Iran's president said Saturday his country now possesses 6,000 centrifuges, a significant increase in its nuclear program that is certain to further rankle the United States and others who fear Tehran is intent on developing weapons.

    The new figure is double the 3,000 uranium-enriching machines Iran had previously said it was operating.

    President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's announcement, reported by the semi-official Fars news agency, comes a week after the U.S. reversed course in negotiations over Iran's nuclear program by sending a top American diplomat to participate in talks between Tehran and world powers.

    The bend in policy had prompted hopes for a compromise under which Iran would agree to temporarily stop expansion of enrichment activities. But the White House said Saturday's development did not facilitate a resolution.

    "Announcements like this, whatever the true number is, are not productive and will only serve to further isolate Iran from the international community," said White House spokesperson Carlton Carroll.

    Iran, which insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, declared in April that it was aiming to double the 3,000 centrifuges it was running in its underground uranium enrichment plant in Natanz.

    "Islamic Iran today possesses 6,000 centrifuges," Fars news quoted Ahmadinejad as saying Saturday in an address to university professors in the northeastern city of Mashhad.

    Washington and its allies have been demanding a halt to Iran's uranium enrichment – something Tehran has repeatedly refused to do.

    The July 19 talks in Geneva were aimed at trying to reach a deal with Iran, and in exchange, the six world powers – the U.S., Germany, Britain, France, Russia and China – would hold off on adopting new United Nations sanctions against Iran. The country is already is under three sets of UN sanctions for its refusal to suspend enrichment.

    But participants in Geneva said Iranian negotiators skirted the freeze issue despite the presence of U.S. Undersecretary of State William Burns.

    U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice later accused Iran of not being serious at the Geneva talks. She warned that Iran would face a fourth set of UN penalties if it does not meet a two-week deadline to agree to freeze suspect activities and start negotiations.

    On Saturday, Iran's chief delegate to the IAEA, Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, lashed back at U.S. criticism of his country's role in the Geneva talks.

    His U.S. counterpart, Gregory Schulte, told the British Daily Telegraph in an interview published earlier this week that Tehran's chief negotiator delivered a "rambling" discourse in Geneva instead of focusing on the talks.

    Soltanieh told The Associated Press on Saturday that Schulte's comments "further damage his credibility and that of his country." He described the Geneva talks as "successful and constructive."

    Ahmadinejad asserted Saturday that Iran's interlocutors had agreed to allow it to continue to run its program as long as it was not expanded beyond 6,000 centrifuges, state radio reported.

    "Today, they have consented that the existing 5,000 or 6,000 centrifuges not be increased and that operation of this number of centrifuges is not a problem," state radio quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

    A report by the UN's nuclear monitoring agency that was delivered to the UN Security Council in May said Iran had 3,500 centrifuges, though a senior UN official said at the time that Iran's goal of 6,000 machines running by the summer was "pretty much plausible."

    In the enrichment process, uranium gas is pumped into a series of centrifuges called "cascades." The gas is spun at supersonic speeds to remove impurities. Enriching at a low level produces nuclear fuel, but at a higher level it can produce the material for a warhead.

    The workhorse of Iran's enrichment program is the P-1 centrifuge, which is run in cascades of 164 machines. But Iranian officials confirmed in February that they had started using the IR-2 centrifuge, which can churn out enriched uranium at more than double the rate.

    A total of 3,000 centrifuges is the commonly accepted figure for a nuclear enrichment program that is past the experimental stage and can be used as a platform for a full industrial-scale program that could churn out enough enriched material for dozens of nuclear weapons.

    Iran says it plans to move toward large-scale uranium enrichment that will ultimately involve 54,000 centrifuges.

    Ahmadinejad called the U.S. participation in the latest round of nuclear talks "a victory for Iran." In the past, the U.S. said it would join talks only if Iran suspends uranium enrichment first.

    "The presence of a U.S. representative ... was a victory for Iran, irrespective of the outcome. ... The U.S. condition was for Iran to suspend enrichment but they attended (the talks) without such a condition being met," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying in the state radio report.

    On Wednesday, Ahmadinejad praised the U.S. participation at the talks as a step toward recognizing Tehran's right to acquire nuclear technology.


     

    AHMADABAD, India - An obscure Islamic militant group warning of "the terror of Death" claimed responsibility for bombings that killed at least 45 people and authorities stepped up security Sunday after India's second series of blasts in two days.

    The city's police commissioner, O.P. Mathur, said that 30 people had been detained for questioning, but there was scant information about the Indian Mujahideen, the little known group that took credit for the bombings in western India.

    "In the name of Allah the Indian Mujahideen strike again! Do whatever you can, within 5 minutes from now, feel the terror of Death!" said an e-mail from the group sent to several Indian television stations minutes before the blasts began.

    The e-mail's subject line said "Await 5 minutes for the revenge of Gujarat," an apparent reference to 2002 riots in the western state which left 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, dead. The historic city of Ahmadabad was the scene of much of the 2002 violence.

    Saturday's e-mail, sent from a Yahoo account and written in English, was made available to AP by CNN-IBN, one of the TV stations that received the warning.

    State government spokesman Jaynarayan Vyas said 45 people were killed and 161 wounded when at least 16 bombs went off Saturday evening in several crowded neighborhoods.

    The attack came a day after seven smaller blasts killed two people in the southern technology hub of Bangalore.

    Investigators in Surat, a city about 160 miles south of Ahmadabad, found a car carrying detonators and a liquid that police suspect may be ammonium nitrate, a chemical often used in explosive devices, city police Chief R.M.S. Brar told reporters.

    The e-mail was sent by a group calling itself Indian Mujahideen that was unknown before May, when it said it was behind a series of bombings in Jaipur, also in western India, that killed 61 people.

    In its e-mail, the group did not mention the bombings in Bangalore and it was not clear if the attacks were connected. But both Ahmadabad and Bangalore are in states ruled by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, as is Jaipur, raising suspicions that whoever was behind the attacks may have wanted to make a political statement.

    There were reports the e-mail may have been sent from a suburb of Mumbai, India's financial capital. But the city's police chief, A.N. Roy, said, "We are inquiring into that. We haven't traced it yet."

    The Saturday bombs went off in two separate spates. The first, near a busy market, left some of the dead sprawled beside stands piled high with fruit, next to twisted bicycles. The second group of blasts went off near a hospital.

    The side of a bus was blown off and its windows shattered, while another vehicle was engulfed in flames. Most of the blasts took place in the narrow lanes of the older part of Ahmadabad, which is tightly packed with homes and small businesses. Bomb-sniffing dogs scoured the areas.

    Distraught relatives of the victims crowded the city's hospitals. One of the wounded was a 6-year-old boy whose father was killed in the blasts. He lay in a hospital bed with his arms covered in bandages and wounds on his face.

    Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat state where Ahmadabad is located, said the bombings appeared to have been masterminded by a group or groups who "are using a similar modus operandi all over the country."

    India has been hit repeatedly by bombings in recent years. Nearly all have been blamed on Islamic militants who allegedly want to provoke violence between India's Hindu majority and Muslim minority, although officials rarely offer hard evidence implicating a specific group.

    The perpetrators also rarely claim responsibility - a fact that raised doubts about the Indian Mujahedeen when it took credit in May for attacking Jaipur.

    But fears that an attack could spark religious riots are real in India, which has seen sporadic violence between Hindus and Muslims since independence from Britain in 1947.

    Those fears were amplified by the recent history of the 2002 religious riots. The violence was triggered by a fire that killed 60 passengers on a train packed with Hindu pilgrims. Hindu extremists blamed the deaths on Muslims and rampaged through Muslim neighborhoods, although the cause of the blaze remains unclear.

    Ahmadabad is also known for the elegant architecture of its mosques and mausoleums, a rich blend of Muslim and Hindu styles. It was founded in the 15th century and served as a sultanate, fortified in 1487 with a wall six miles in circumference.

    ---

    Associated Press Writer R.K. Misra contributed to this report.

     

    By MATTHEW ROSENBERG Associated Press Writer

    Terror Threats to Olympic Games

    A terrorist group based in western China threatens to attack the upcoming Beijing Olympics, and claims responsibility for last week's deadly bus bombings in China in a new propaganda video released July 25. The Turkistan Islamic Party video, entitled "Our Blessed Jihad in Yunnan," warns spectators and athletes, "particularly the Muslims," not to attend the Beijing Games, which are scheduled to begin in two weeks on Aug. 8. "Our aim is to target the most critical points related to the Olympics. We will try to attack Chinese central cities severely using the tactics that have never been employed," the group's leader, Commander Seyfullah said, according to a translation of the video provided by IntelCenter, a Washington, D.C.-based firm that...monitors terrorism. The Turkistan Islamic Party is fighting to gain autonomy for the native Muslim population in the Xinjiang Province of China, which shares a border with Pakistan and Afghanistan. The group has been linked to al Qaeda and has been monitored by U.S. and foreign intelligence agencies. "Despite the Turkistan Islamic Party's repeated warnings to China and international community about stopping the 29th Olympics in Beijing, the Chinese have haughtily ignored our warnings. The Turkistan Islamic Party volunteers who had gone through special preparation have started urgent actions." Seyfullah said, according to the IntelCenter translation. Seyfullah, with a raised voice and breathing heavily, claims responsibility for the...bombing of three public buses in Yunnan on July 21, and the bombing of a plastic factory in Guangzhou on July 17. The bus explosions killed at least two people and injured 14 in the southwestern city of Kunming in Yunnan Province. The official Xinhua news agency of China said it was seeking to find out who was responsible for the attacks. Seyfullah said the group bombed two public buses in Shanghai on May 5 and "took action against police" in Wenzhou on July 17 with a tractor loaded with explosives. The video is about three and a half minutes in length, and resembles al Qaeda propaganda videos in structure. At the top of the video a sign for the Beijing Olympic Games is engulfed in flames. The video continues with still photos of the...
    aftermath of the bus bombings in China. The bulk of the video shows Seyfullah speaking, wearing a white cloth to cover his face. Two militants wearing black ski masks and holding rifles stand behind him. "The Turkistan Islamic Party warns China one more time," Seyfullah said according to the IntelCenter transcript. The warning comes two weeks before the start of the Beijing Games on August 8.
    Iran has up to 6,000 enrichment centrifuges: Ahmadinejad

    Iran must resolve nuclear dispute before US vote: Obama
    US White House hopeful Barack Obama said Friday that Iran should not wait for the new US president to be elected to resolve its dispute with the West over its nuclear programme. "Iran should accept the proposals that President (Nicolas) Sarkozy and the EU... are presenting now. Don't wait for the next president," he said at a joint press conference with Sarkozy in Paris. The comments came after world powers warned Iran has only a fortnight to respond to their latest offer seeking to end a five-year crisis over its nuclear programme, which Tehran claims has peaceful ends, but which others fear masks nuclear weapons ambitions. The US election is scheduled for November.
    by Staff Writers
    Tehran (AFP) July 26, 2008
    President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Saturday that Iran has boosted the number of uranium-enriching centrifuges to up to 6,000, in an expansion of its nuclear drive that defies international calls for a freeze.

    "Today they (the West) have agreed that the existing 5,000 to 6,000 centrifuges do not increase and that there is no problem if this number of centrifuges work," Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying by state radio.

    Ahmadinejad said in April that Iran was working to install 6,000 more centrifuges at an underground hall in a plant at its nuclear facility in Natanz, where it already had 3,000 running.

    It is a major expansion of Iran's nuclear programme, which the West fears could be aimed at making atomic weapons.

    Iran is already under three sets of UN Security Council sanctions over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment, which makes nuclear fuel as well as the fissile core of an atomic bomb.

    World powers, seeking to resolve the standoff, have offered to start pre-negotiations during which Tehran would add no more uranium-enriching centrifuges and in return face no further sanctions.

    Iran was given a two-week deadline to give a final answer to world powers seeking a breakthrough in the crisis after talks a week ago in Geneva with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana ended in stalemate.

    The United States, which took the unprecedented step of sending a top diplomat to meet Iran's chief negotiator at the Geneva talks, has warned Tehran of "punitive measures" if it spurns the offer and presses on with enrichment.

    Ahmadinejad said the US presence in at the Geneva talks was a "success" for Iran regardless of its outcome, state radio reported.

    "They said a few years ago that talks without a US participation has no results and the US condition is suspending enrichment but it has happened today without satisfying the US condition."

    Ahmadinejad had vowed on Wednesday that Iran would make no concessions and that further sanctions would not force it to back down.

    Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, insisting that its programme is designed to provide energy for its growing population when the leading OPEC member's reserves of fossil fuels run out.

    Permanent Security Council members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- plus Germany have made Iran an offer, which includes trade incentives and help with a civilian nuclear programme in return for suspending enrichment.

    The New York Times on Tuesday released what it said was a two-page informal document that outlined Tehran's approach to talks in Geneva and was distributed by Iranian negotiators.

    The paper called for seven more rounds of talks, stressed the need for an end to sanctions, and made no mention of an incentives package.

    Iranian officials have repeatedly said they have no intention of freezing enrichment and that as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to make its own nuclear fuel.

    Vice President Reza Aghazadeh said on Thursday that the negotiations with the world powers could be used to resolve wider Middle East problems from the conflict in Iraq to surging oil prices.

    The standoff has stirred fears of Israeli or US military strikes against Iran, as US President George W. Bush has insisted Washington would keep all options on the table. It has also sent oil prices spiralling upward.

    Iran has repeatedly vowed a crushing response to any aggression against its soil, with Iranian officials warning that the military would target Israel and dozens of US bases in the region in retaliation.


    New stance, or new spin? Ahmadinejad speaks to NBC

    • Filed under: Iran
    Monday
    Jul 28,2008

    After interviewing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today, NBC News anchor Brian Williams pronounced Tehran as having a “new stance ready for further engagement.”

     

    “It was clear to all of us watching and listening he brought with him a new approach,” Williams said of Ahmadinejad. Williams said the Iranian president told him, “We are not working to manufacture a bomb,” said, “Nuclear weapons are so 20th century,” and that, “if the American approach changes, Iranians will have a positive response.’”

    Apparently, Williams is convinced. But is this a new stance, or just a new ploy by a regime doing all it can to stall action against a suspected nuclear weapons program just months away from being able to produce a bomb?

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