Moscow's top diplomat in Cuba earlier this week said Russian petroleum firms have designs on drilling in waters in the Gulf of Mexico off Cuba's northern shores, an area Cuban energy experts say contains an estimated 20 billion barrels under the ocean floor.

Numerous foreign energy firms, in addition to Russia's Gazprom and LUKoil, are eager to begin drilling off the coast of Cuba. Spanish firm Repsol has led a group of interested oil companies in drilling the first test well. Brazilian oil giant Petrobras is a likely candidate to lead the drilling off Cuban shores because of its expertise in deepwater production.

U.S. petroleum companies are forbidden from doing business with the country because of the longstanding American trade embargo against the communist island. However, some lawmakers on Capitol Hill have called for a softening of the embargo so that American companies might join in exploring the waters off Cuba.

While Russia appears keen on joining the ranks of nations hoping to tap into the Cuban oil market, oil experts like Jorge Pinon, an energy fellow at the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami, contend Moscow could be making "more of a political statement than anything else."

"If you talk to more experts, they will tell you ... the reason Russia (is doing) it is to send a political message to the U.S.: 'Stay out of our back yard,'" Pinon told United Press International, referring to the proposed U.S. missile defense shield in Poland and Washington's strong ties with Georgia.

Pinon also noted that Russian petroleum firms lack the deepwater expertise of other countries jockeying to drill in Cuban waters such as Brazil, Malaysia and, in particular, Spain.

Pinon said sources in the industry indicated that Repsol could begin drilling a second test well in Cuban waters as early as the second quarter of 2009.

Earlier this year Cuba's state-run energy company Cubapetroleo -- or Cupnet, as it is better known -- said full-scale production could begin in the region sometime next year.

Russia could very well be a player in that race for Cuban oil. In October, following days of bilateral talks in Havana, Russian officials said they were eager to help Cuba rebuild its energy sector and would help the country acquire a fleet of oil tankers.

Relations between the former Cold War allies deteriorated after the collapse of the Soviet Union, though in recent months Moscow has signaled its interest in restoring those ties.

Last year Venezuela helped Cuba restore operations at a Soviet-era oil refinery, a relic of the Soviet Union's sway over Cuba until its decline in the late 1980s.

The refinery had been dormant since then, though with the help of Venezuela and some $136 million in repairs funded by Caracas, the plant went back online in December 2007.

The Camilo Cienfuegos refinery currently is operating at 60 percent capacity, according to the University of Miami's Cuban Studies program.

Cuban officials have lauded the return of operations at Cienfuegos, though some speculate the plant may need still more work before becoming fully operational because of its longtime dormancy.

"It was a mess, that refinery," said Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs in Washington and noted expert on Cuba.

Meanwhile, five international oil companies have paid reserve fees to the Cuban government to secure exploration rights.

Coming Soon: Improved Lithium Ion Batteries

File image.

by Staff Writers
Seoul, South Korea (SPX) Nov 27, 2008
Rechargeable lithium ion batteries provide portable devices that require a lot of energy, such as mobile telephones, digital cameras, and notebook computers, with power. However, their capacity, and thus the running time of the devices, remain somewhat limited. A notebook computer thus usually runs only about two hours.

The reason for this is the relatively small capacity of the graphite anode in these batteries to absorb lithium ions. A team led by Jaephil Cho at Hanyang University in Korea has now developed a new material for anodes, which could clear a path for a new generation of rechargeable batteries. As reported in the journal Angewandte Chemie, their new material involves three-dimensional, highly porous silicon structures.

Lithium ion accumulator batteries produce current by moving lithium ions. The battery usually contains a cathode (positive electrode) made of a mixed metal oxide, such as lithium cobalt oxide, and an anode (negative electrode) made of graphite. While the battery is being charged, lithium ions migrate into the anode, where they are stored between the graphite layers.

When the battery is being discharged, these ions migrate back to the cathode.

It would be nice to have an anodic material that could store more lithium ions than graphite. Silicon presents an interesting alternative. The problem: silicon expands a great deal while absorbing lithium ions (charging) and shrinks when giving them up (discharging). After several cycles the required thin silicon layers are pulverized and can no longer be charged.

Cho's team has now developed a new method for the production of a porous silicon anode that can withstand this strain. They annealed silicon dioxide nanoparticles with silicon particles whose outermost silicon atoms have short hydrocarbon chains attached to them at 900 degrees C under an argon atmosphere.

The silicon dioxide particles were removed from the resulting mass by etching. What remained were carbon-coated silicon crystals in a continuous, three-dimensional, highly porous structure.

Anodes made of this highly porous silicon have a high charge capacity for lithium ions. In addition, the lithium ions are rapidly transported and stored, making rapid charging and discharging possible. A high specific capacity is also attained with high current.

The changes in volume that occur upon charging and discharging cause only a small degree of swelling and shrinking of the pore walls, which have a thickness of less than 70 nm. In addition, the first charging cycle results in an amorphous (noncrystalline) silicon mass around residual nanocrystals in the pore walls. Consequently, even after 100 cycles, the stress in the pore wall is not noticeable in the material.

BMW and Swedish Vatenfall plan electric car network for Berlin

German rival Daimler said in early September that it was teaming up with power company RWE to develop a similar project in Berlin that would be based on electric Mercedes-Benz and Smart cars.

by Staff Writers
Frankfurt (AFP) Nov 25, 2008
German luxury automaker BMW and Swedish power group Vatenfall said Tuesday they will launch a pilot project next year to test the feasibility of electric cars in Berlin.

BMW will provide 50 electric Mini models while Vatenfall Europe will establish a network of charging points throughout the German capital, a joint statement said.

"We want to know how many typical clients use an electric vehicle daily," BMW chairman Norbert Reithofer said in the statement as the project was presented to the German environment ministry.

"We want to have a realistic view of the technology's potential," he said.

In July, Munich-based BMW said it would produce 500 electric versions of its Mini model, mainly for export to the United States where they were to be rented to the public.

German rival Daimler said in early September that it was teaming up with power company RWE to develop a similar project in Berlin that would be based on electric Mercedes-Benz and Smart cars.

That network is to comprise 500 charging stations installed by RWE, the second biggest German electricity company.

Outside View: Venezuela's nuclear plans

Chavez and Medvedev. Photo courtesy AFP.

by Konstantin Bogdanov
Moscow (UPI) Nov 25, 2008
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced his country had reached a tentative agreement with Russia to build a nuclear reactor.

"A nuclear reactor, to produce energy for peaceful purposes, will soon be built in Estado Zulia and named in honor of a 20th century Venezuelan scientist, Humberto Fernandez Moran," the Venezuelan Ministry for Communication and Information quoted Chavez as saying. The media reported that the construction contract may be signed on Nov. 26, during Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Venezuela.

Although Chavez's flamboyant style is nothing new, it is worth analyzing the possible goals of the project and assessing how viable it is.

South America's nuclear industry is about 50 years old, but only Argentina and Brazil have nuclear reactors. In both cases, this is the peaceful tip of the military nuclear iceberg. Both have suspended their nuclear programs under the pressure of the world community, at least officially. They have regular light-water reactors and Canadian heavy-water CANDU reactors. The United States, Canada and Germany have played the main role in Latin America's peaceful nuclear programs.

Latin America is a potential growing point for the Third World's nuclear industry. Brazil and Argentina will continue developing their nuclear industries. Chile also has declared its intention to obtain nuclear technologies.

Venezuela claims to be Latin America's third major power, and in this context its intention to go nuclear looks primarily like an ambitious political move. The oil-producing Venezuela does not need to develop a nuclear industry, unlike India or China, major importers of hydrocarbons. Brazil is also an oil producer, but it is sometimes short of energy because of its rapid economic growth.

In short, for Venezuela, a nuclear reactor may be simply a military-political project. It is not likely to cope with a military nuclear program for two reasons. First, the light-water WWER model, which is the only technical solution for the Venezuelan project, is not suitable for military uses. Second, Venezuela does not have enough engineers who are qualified for the task.

It would be premature to expect technical aid from Russia at this point.

Russian nuclear engineering is obviously overstrained. Recently the growing number of export contracts for the construction of nuclear power plants abroad has jeopardized Russia's federal target program for the development of the nuclear industry. Russia has only one company that specializes in building nuclear reactors, Izhorskiye Zavody, and it is loaded with contracts for years to come.

It is hard to overestimate the political importance of Russia's peaceful nuclear expansion to the Third World, but Moscow should not forgo the interests of its own nuclear industry. Paralyzed by the Chernobyl syndrome in the late 1980s and the general crisis of the Soviet economic system, it requires overall reconstruction and development.

This makes the Venezuelan-Russian project seem like a political fantasy rather than an economically substantiated move. In the final count, neither side needs it. However, it may be used as a bargaining chip in the big game between the United States, the European Union, China and Russia that is now unfolding in Latin America.

Latin America is freeing itself from U.S. control. Its growing military and political ambitions are turning it into what it was, to a certain extent, in the 19th century -- the testing grounds of the great powers. But there is one unpleasant detail: They are increasingly testing more and more dangerous toys.

(This article is reprinted by permission of the RIA Novosti news agency. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

Saying Cheese For More Effective Border Security

A graphical overlay can improve the quality of facial images obtained by facial recognition systems. Credit: NIST

by Staff Writers
Washington DC (SPX) Nov 27, 2008
Facial recognition systems perform some very challenging tasks such as checking an individual's photo against a database of known or suspected criminals. The task can become nearly impossible when the systems acquire poor facial images-a situation that occurs all too often in real-world environments.

Now, researchers at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) have found that several simple steps can significantly improve the quality of facial images that are acquired at border entry points such as airports and seaports.

Better yet, the NIST recommendations for improving facial images can be implemented relatively easily with existing facial recognition technology.

Travelers entering the United States have their pictures taken and their fingerprints collected digitally as part of the US-VISIT program implemented by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). US-VISIT and NIST work together on an ongoing basis to improve processes and technology.

A 2007 NIST study of facial images collected at border entry points, however, found that the captured facial images were not as clear and useful for automated recognition as they could be.

In usability and human factors research performed for US-VISIT as part of a large joint effort to improve facial recognition technology, NIST's Mary Theofanos and her colleagues sought simple ways of obtaining better facial images in often hectic real-world conditions without having to deploy new technology.

The NIST researchers first visited and observed a DHS border entry point at Dulles Airport in the Washington, D.C. area to see the facial-image capturing process.

As a result of these observations, the researchers identified and shared with US-VISIT a number of steps to take for acquiring better facial images. For example, the report recommends that operators should adjust camera settings to ensure the subject comes into sharp focus.

The report also recommends using a traditional-looking camera in facial-recognition systems so that individuals could clearly recognize the camera and look into it.

Following the Dulles site visit, a study adopted these steps in taking facial images of 300 participants while mimicking the real-world conditions of a border entry point.

In these tests, 100 percent of the images fully captured the participant's face; all of the participants faced the camera; and the researchers found additional improvements by using a graphical overlay to the camera display in order to better position the camera.

The researchers believe these steps will improve the performance of facial recognition systems in real-world settings using existing technology. A follow-up study is underway in which the researchers are incorporating the graphical overlay into the workflow of camera operators.

Feature: Magnet bomb terror stalks Baghdad

File image courtesy AFP.

by Richard Tomkins
Baghdad (UPI) Nov 26, 2008
The big bangs of vehicle-borne explosive devices that rock Iraq's capital often cause mass civilian casualties and grab world headlines, but they also obscure a less dramatic terrorist attempt to undermine government security efforts.

The means are small bombs attached to cars and other vehicles with magnets. The targets: Iraqi Security Force officers or Sons of Iraq group leaders riding in them and/or other security personnel at the vehicles' destinations or at checkpoints through which they must pass.

"They're very hard to detect," said Maj. Geoff Greene, executive officer of the U.S. 1st Battalion, 68th Armor Regiment in East Baghdad. "And you can quickly put it on (a vehicle) at Point A and have it go off at Point B. They've been used against sheiks, Iraqi police leaders, Iraqi army leaders. ... It's just not your random run-of-the-mill person."

There are exceptions to the pattern, however. On Nov. 13 a sticky bomb apparently was attached to a bus in the Jadida area, injuring eight of the 11 people aboard.

The attack was one of six bombings in just two days involving vehicles in the Baghdad area. The other five were typical Vehicle Born Improvised Explosive Device attacks and resulted in five deaths and 49 injuries, including a number of children hurt when an explosive-laden car exploded next to the entrance to their school.

The blast at the school, less than an hour before children were released from class, shattered windows, sent shrapnel flying and set alight four cars parked nearby. No one claimed responsibility for the incident -- nor for the other four VBIED attacks that day -- but it had al-Qaida in Iraq's signature: large blasts designed to cause civilian casualties, in this case Shiite Muslim casualties.

"Heinous attacks by al-Qaida in Iraq are an attempt to incite sectarian violence and return to 2005-2006 levels of violence," said Col. John Hort, commander of the U.S. 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, which is in charge of much of eastern Baghdad. "Iraq has progressed too far to allow this to happen."

The school was located in the Beida/Shaab area of Adhamiya, a predominately Shiite Muslim area just a short distance from Sadr City, a massive Shiite slum. Al-Qaida operatives are nominally Sunni and sparked sectarian violence in Iraq in 2006 that nearly resulted in civil war when they bombed a revered Shiite mosque in the city of Samara, north of the capital.

They used the chaos, fear and confusion of the time to gain new footholds in Sunni communities or expand operations in communities in which they were already present.

U.S. military intelligence officers say the smaller assassination bombs -- dubbed "sticky bombs" -- pack less than 15 pounds of explosives. Some charges are so small, it's suspected they're "intimidation" devices to scare rather than kill the intended target.

The devices are mainly triggered by a timer or remote control, but 1-68 found one before detonation recently that actually had a slow smoldering fuse cord. In some cases, it appears the bombs were placed on the vehicles of hapless drivers with a commute pattern sussed out in advanced by placers.

"A couple of times a guy followed the vehicle and set it (the bomb) off with a remote control," said Capt. Ryan Clebek, an intelligence officer with 1-68. "These kinds of attacks take a lot more planning than VBIEDs. It's not going for mass casualties; it's for specific targets -- people who cooperate with coalition forces."

Again, al-Qaida is believed to be behind the sticky-bomb attacks, although it's not certain. But a man captured by Iraqi security forces attaching a bomb Oct. 18 was apparently AQI-affiliated, as were members of a bomb-planting cell arrested recently.

The exact number of sticky-bomb attacks in Baghdad cannot be immediately ascertained, but Greene and Clebek believe more than 50 over the past six or seven months would be in the ballpark. In the Adhamiya district of eastern Baghdad there have been six to eight since midsummer, they said.

"The only way to combat them is for people to watch their cars and also check their vehicles every day," said Clebek.

Thales WATCHKEEPER Successfully Passes First System Flight Trial

The WATCHKEEPER UAV.

by Staff Writers
London, UK (SPX) Nov 26, 2008
Thales UK has announced the successful first system flight trials of the WATCHKEEPER unmanned air vehicle (UAV), with the autonomous flight taking place under the system guidance of the WATCHKEEPER ground control software and fully integrated within the ground control station (GCS).

These trials of the UAV, which operates with dual payloads, will continue into 2009, and will validate the key mission system capability of the WATCHKEEPER system.

This is another significant step forward in the WATCHKEEPER programme and follows closely from the first successful flight trials of the WATCHKEEPER air vehicle in April 2008 and the demonstration of the WATCHKEEPER Automatic Take-Off and landing (ATOL) capability in August 2008.

The control software has been produced by Thales UK at its Crawley facility. The GCS has been designed and manufactured in the UK by UAV Tactical Systems Ltd (U-TacS), the Thales UK/Elbit Systems joint company site in Leicester.

During the first successful flight trials at Elbit's facilities in Israel, the WATCHKEEPER UAV was controlled by the WATCHKEEPER GCS using Thales-developed software and performed an automatic take-off and landing. This initial stage of systems trials will provide an essential link between the various sub-system level trials and the full WATCHKEEPER systems trials to be undertaken in the UK next year.

The WATCHKEEPER system test programme includes:

+ System command and control of UAV from WATCHKEEPER GCS

+ Initial assessment of system data link performance

+ Dual payload installation

+ Generation and exploitation of payload imagery (the 'imagery chain')

+ WATCHKEEPER avionics system trials (IFF and airborne radio assessment)

+ Further systems ATOLS assessment

+ Electrical power system performance with dual payloads installed

Mark Barclay, Managing Director of Thales UK's aerospace business, says: "This is another major step forward on the WATCHKEEPER programme and one of a number of trials that are scheduled over the coming months. We have made steady progress since the contract was signed in 2005 and I am particularly pleased that Thales and our external partners continue to deliver in line with the agreed customer schedule."

US has never advised Israel against Iran strike: Olmert

Olmert and Bush. Photo courtesy of AFP.

by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Nov 25, 2008
The United States has not pressured Israel to rule out military action in order to halt Iran's nuclear program, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said on Tuesday after talks with President George W. Bush.

The outgoing prime minister, who ends what is probably his last visit to Washington in office, said he had "spoke at length with Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and the president on Iran."

"There is a basic, deep understanding about the Iranian threat and the need to act in order to remove threat," he told reporters.

Israel considers Iran its greatest threat, because of Tehran's accelerating nuclear program and repeated statements by its leaders predicting the Jewish state's demise.

Israel -- the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear power -- and the United States accuse Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons, while Tehran has insisted its program is entirely peaceful.

The Jewish state has refused to rule out military response to the nuclear standoff and Olmert said on Tuesday that the Bush administration has never advised them against such action.

"I don't remember that anyone in the administration, including in the last couple of days, advised me or any other of my official representatives not to take any action that we will deem necessary for the fundamental security of the state of Israel, and that includes Iran," Olmert said.

As Bush prepares to leave the White House on January 20 and with Olmert set to step down amid a corruption scandal after February elections, the premier wanted to clinch new US commitments on Iran before president-elect Barack Obama takes office.

Officials said Olmert would press Bush and Congress to allow Israel to purchase dozens of F-35 stealth fighter jets, which would considerably boost the Israeli air force's ability to carry out long-range strikes.

The Pentagon has announced that Israel had asked to buy up to 75 jets, but Congress has yet to give the 15-billion dollar (12-billion euro) deal a green light.

Over the past year, the United States has considerably increased its already tight defense ties with its ally, giving the Jewish state an unprecedented 10-year, 30-billion dollar defense aid commitment.

Analysis: Berlin a Russian mafia hub

File image.

by Stefan Nicola
Berlin (UPI) Nov 26, 2008
Berlin has become a European hub for the Russian mafia, according to security experts in the German capital.

If you own a BMW X5 or a Porsche Cayenne, you shouldn't park it in the streets of Berlin too often, because these fancy SUVs top the list from which the Russian mafia is "shopping" in Germany's capital. The criminals cruise the rich neighborhoods until they find their car of choice, then open, short-circuit and load it onto a truck -- in less than two minutes. Chances are the owners won't see their cars again.

"Such vehicles are brought into nearby body shops ¿¿ where they are tuned or taken apart completely," Bernd Finger, the head of the Berlin Criminal Office, said earlier this month in an interview with the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. "From there they are taken to intermediate traders in Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovenia. And from there they are taken into the buyer's country, most often Russia or Asia."

Finger is Berlin's chief anti-mafia czar, and he raised eyebrows when he recently revealed that Berlin, along with London and New York, has turned into a hub for the Russian mafia.

"We're in the center between east and west," he told the Sueddeutsche Zeitung. "You can get stolen goods to Poland within an hour, and the anonymity of a metropolis with 3.4 million people enables ¿¿ ethnic compartmentalization. The members stay among themselves, and thus undisturbed."

He later told the Tagesspiegel newspaper that Berlin in 2007 saw 68 organized crime cases with more than 1,000 individual crimes. Because of ongoing investigations, Finger didn't want to comment on how many members the Russian mafia has permanently stationed in Berlin.

Unlike the Mafia from Italy, Russian organized crime is not based on local or family structures, he said, but on professional strategic alliances that operate globally.

"It's all about making a lot of money very quickly," Finger said.

The organized car thefts are only the lowest in a three-tier structure the Russian mafia has established in Berlin, officials say. The Russian mafia's activities also include the middle league, such as prostitution or human trafficking, and the top league -- money laundering. Berlin for these crimes serves as an intermediate hub between Europe and the rest of the world, said Finger, who has also had to investigate targeted killings and racketeering.

So what do these guys look like? Big SUVs, tattoos, ordering several Dom Perignon bottles at once -- that holds true only for the midlevel gangsters, the henchmen, Finger said.

The really dangerous guys are eager not to make waves, and most often they are wearing expensive watches and business suits instead of gold chains and baggy pants.

"They work as economic experts in international companies, and move, in a matter of seconds, millions (of euros) that are tainted with the blood of the innocent. These are the guys we have to take care of."

The Berlin police also advise German politicians, because the Russian mafia in the past has tried to influence their decision-making.

"You won't believe it, but many politicians like to experience this sort of excitement that comes when you encounter the criminal milieu," he said, adding that organized crime is increasingly trying to influence how government money is spent.

Spending money the right way -- the German Police Union feels that has not happened when it comes to fighting organized crime.

"It doesn't seem to be the political wish to do more" against the mafia, Konrad Freiberg, head of the police union, told the Berliner Zeitung newspaper a few days after the Finger interview. He said the German states needs to dish out more money to improve police equipment.

Sensors for combat helmets could gather blast data

File image.

by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Nov 25, 2008
The US Navy is developing sensors for combat helmets to measure the force of roadside explosions and gather data that might be useful in treating traumatic brain injury, a researcher said Tuesday.

David Mott, a researcher at Naval Research Laboratory, presented findings showing that helmets, while providing protection against blasts, channel the shock wave to different parts of the head.

"The medical community does not really understand what causes TBI (traumatic brain injury). There are some theories regarding direct pressure on the head. There are other theories regarding cumulative effects of lower level explosions," he said.

With the helmet sensor being developed, a Marine would have a history of all the blasts to which he or she was exposed over the course of a deployment, he said in a telephone interview from a scientific conference at San Antonio, Texas.

"It will record pressure history as well as accleration, which will give us an idea of the severity and directionality of the blast," he said.

The helmet ideally would stay with the same marine over the course of a deployment, he said.

"So you would get a total history of every event they have been involved with whether it was severe enough that they went to the medic or whatever it was," he said.

"Down the road if health issues come up, or there is some other event you'll have that history and maybe you'll be able to relate it to what other type of injuries you may have.

Mott said prototypes of the sensor have been developed, but the project was still in the research and development phase.

The findings he presented at the American Physical Society's Division of Fluid Dynamics in San Antonio drew from research conducted by teams at NRL and Canadian Allen-Vanguard Technologies.

The teams examined what happens when 1.5 kilograms of C-4 explosives detonates within meters of a crash dummy wearing a combat helmet with sensors.

Mott then modeled the fluid dynamics of the shock wave and found that it entered the gap between the helmet and the head and traveled about the head.

The helmet provided protection to the side of the head facing the blast, he said.

"But it gathered some of the wave that comes underneath in that gap and it can cause higher pressure on the backside of the head," he said.

"The pressure that is produced on that backside is comparable to what that incident wave would produce on an unprotected surface," he said.

He said the impact was not likely to be as severe on a human because there were differences in the case of a crash dummy that were not taken into account in the model.

This 5 month study concerns the analysis of the French legal framework relative to the use of Light UAS (<150 kg) by the French Homeland Security forces.

This study will include the following:

+ A detailed analysis of the existing legal framework and the proposal of a solution that will permit the operation use of Light UAS by the French Homeland Security forces;

+ Technical guidelines on how to deploy a Light UAS and be in conformity with the current French regulations;

+ A proposal concerning the adaptation of the current French regulations in the medium term in order to permit generalization of the operational use of Light UAS by the French Homeland Security forces.

UVS International, The Netherlands, the prime contractor, will conduct this study in cooperation with UAS Consulting and Services, France, its sub-contractor for this contract.

UVS International is proud to have been selected by the French Ministry of Interior to conduct this study.

Far from home, Medvedev finds China a looming presence

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.

by Staff Writers
Lima (AFP) Nov 25, 2008
As President Dmitry Medvedev takes Russian assertiveness to Washington's doorstep on a tour of Latin America, analysts point out an uncomfortable truth: China is stealing the show.

The 43-year-old leader was relentlessly upbeat as he met other heads of state at a weekend forum of Asia-Pacific leaders in Peru, exhorting Russian journalists following his punishing itinerary: "For those that wish, let's travel further together."

Medvedev was going on to Brazil and arch US foes Venezuela and Cuba, with exercises by Russia's navy off Venezuela seen as sending a defiant message to the United States.

In a reminder of past Cold War struggles, he stressed Russia's desire for renewed ties with Latin American countries close to Moscow in the Soviet era.

But as Chinese President Hu Jintao paraded through Lima in an open-top car and was feted at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, a Russian newspaper, Kommersant, dubbed Medvedev's trip an "economy-class tour."

Noting Hu visited Cuba days earlier and provided lashings of financial help, Kommersant warned Russian businessmen visiting with Medvedev would only get contracts that hadn't "appetized" the Chinese.

China and Russia are ostensibly allies in a group called the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, but there is little doubt which is the dominant power, says Moscow-based analyst Fyodor Lukyanov.

"Russia and China are competing for influence in various parts of the world, especially in Latin America, but Chinese positions are much more deep and solid," said Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russian in Global Affairs.

"In terms of international influence, we're playing in a different league," he said.

In particular, while Beijing has no territorial designs on Russia, Moscow in the long term can only be concerned for the fate of its vast, sparsely populated far eastern regions bordering China, he said.

"There is a threat the Russian far east will de facto be integrated into the economic systems of East Asia. If China plays a more important role for the people of Vladivostok and other Russian cities, the next step will be a redistribution of political influence," Lukyanov said.

It's a view shared by Robert Dujarric, a security expert at Tokyo's Temple University, who says part of the problem is that few countries to Russia's east feel Moscow has much to offer.

For China "the markets are in the US, Europe and Japan. The technology they need and the universities their students go to are in the West and Japan. Their financial ties are with the West.

"It's hard to believe the Chinese leadership sees Russia as an ally," he said.

Russia "really doesn't exist in the imagination of East Asia," said Dujarric.

One area where Russia has had some success marketing itself is in space expertise, with Russia launching astronauts and satellites for Brazil, Malaysia and South Korea.

Arms sales also remain an earner among the traditionally leftist countries of Latin America, exemplified by the deals Russia hopes to secure with controversial partner Venezuela.

But security analyst Bob Ayers, of London-based research centre Chatham House, says even this strength is in doubt as Russian technology has largely stood still since the Soviet era.

He says the inadvertent poisoning of 20 sailors aboard a Russian submarine off the country's far east this month will not have gone unnoticed by countries assessing Russia's defense capability.

And with China holding a significant nuclear arsenal and developing its own arms, Beijing may soon have little reason to feel inferior, says Ayers.

"Are they (China) behind Russia in training and discipline? Are they behind technologically? It's getting very hard to judge," said Ayers.

NEW YORK - Al-Qaida's No. 2 leader has lashed out at Afghanistan's government and claimed that any U.S. gains in Iraq will be temporary, a terror monitoring group said Thursday.

In a new video, Ayman Al-Zawahri also lauded his group's fight in several countries and criticized leaders of those nations for their fight to counter the terrorists, according to SITE Intelligence group.

Zawahri's comments, carried on a militant Web site Thursday, came about a week after his last message in which he accused President-elect Barack Obama of turning his back on his black heritage to gain power.

Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant didn't refer to the attacks in Mumbai, India, late Wednesday and early Thursday that killed scores. Intelligence analysts said the violence carried trademarks of al-Qaida but evidence has been pointing to homegrown terrorists. A little known suspected Islamic militant group has claimed responsibility.

In the video, SITE says Zawahri labeled Afghan President Hamid Karzai's recent attempt to negotiate with Taliban insurgents a sign of his government's weakness.

He also accused the United States of giving phony reports of success in the turbulent region, maintaining the Americans are doomed to fail in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan.

Discussing Iraq, Zawahri said that U.S. gains are temporary. He also stressed that that Sunni Awakening Councils - former insurgents who have revolted against al-Qaida - will not be accepted by the Shiite majority government.

U.S.-based SITE said Zawahri defended against charges of al-Qaida's killing innocent civilians, calling the reports Western propaganda.

 

The Associated Press

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - The Mumbai terror attacks threaten to chill improving ties between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan just as the West is trying to get Islamabad to focus on al-Qaida and Taliban close to the Afghan border.

India has not singled out Pakistan as being linked to the strikes, but Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Thursday said militants based outside his country carried them out.

That was widely understood in Pakistan to be an accusation of its involvement.

Defense Minister Ahmed Mukhtar said Pakistan "should not be blamed like in the past."

"This will destroy all the goodwill we created together after years of bitterness," he told The Associated Press. "I will say in very categoric terms that Pakistan is not involved in these gory incidents."

Deteriorating relations between Pakistan and India, which have fought three wars since 1947, would greatly complicate U.S. foreign policy in the region.

Incoming President-elect Barack Obama has said normalizing ties between the two South Asian neighbors will be a major plank of his broader campaign to stabilize Afghanistan and beat al-Qaida in the region.

"You can't cozy up to a country that is accusing you of complicity in terrorism," said Shaun Gregory, an expert on South Asian terrorism at the University of Bradford in Britain. "Any sign of Pakistani involvement would be extraordinarily damaging."

On Friday, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani called his Indian counterpart and pledged his government's "full support to jointly combat extremism and terrorism," Gilani's office said.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice telephoned Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari late Thursday to discuss ties and the regional situation, the Associated Press of Pakistan reported.

In 2001, militants fighting Indian rule in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir attacked Parliament in New Delhi, helping push the countries to the brink of war a year later.

It is widely believed that Pakistan used to provide material and tactical support to militants fighting Indian rule in divided Kashmir, but there has been less cross-border infiltration in recent years amid U.S. pressure after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

India accused Pakistan's intelligence services of helping Taliban militants bomb its embassy in the Afghan capital in July, killing 58 people. Pakistani officials say there is no evidence to support the allegation.

But relations between India and Pakistan have generally improved in recent years. Pakistan's new president, Asif Ali Zardari, declared over the weekend that India posed no threat to Pakistan and called for their heavily militarized border to be opened for trade.

Some analysts speculated that the terrorists' goal may have been to trigger a collapse in India-Pakistan ties possibly to the levels of 2002, when New Delhi deployed tens of thousands of troops to the border.

"In this situation, when all our energies are focused on fighting the militants, we cannot afford to shift our attentions to the eastern border" with India, said Ishtiaq Ahmad, professor of international relations at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. "This is a very risky moment."

On Wednesday, teams of gunmen attacked at least 10 sites in India's financial capital of Mumbai, including two luxury hotels, a railway station and a Jewish center. More than 100 people were killed.

In an address to the nation Thursday, the Indian prime minister said the group that carried out the attacks "was based outside the country" and warned its neighbors "that the use of their territory for launching attacks on us will not be tolerated."

Earlier, Indian navy spokesman Capt. Manohar Nambiar said navy officers had boarded a cargo vessel it suspected of ties to the attacks that had come to Mumbai from Karachi, Pakistan. He later said the ship was not linked in any way to the strikes.

While the investigation into the attacks is only just starting, many analysts said the terrorists were more likely to be indigenous Indian extremists blamed for a series of bombings this year than Pakistani-linked ones.

Analysts also noted that India's government stood to benefit politically by hinting at the involvement of its old rival - rather than admitting some of its own 145 million Muslims had become radicalized.

"It will always want to label this militancy as foreign rather than to accept it has its own problem," said Gregory, the South Asian terrorism expert. "That sells much more easily to the Indian public than admitting serious grievances within its Muslims."

Indian media reports said a previously unknown group calling itself the Deccan Mujahideen claimed responsibility for the attacks in e-mails to several media outlets. There was no way to verify that claim.

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Associated Press writers Zarar Khan in Islamabad and Lee Keath in Cairo, Egypt, contributed to this report.

 

By CHRIS BRUMMITT Associated Press Writer

DORASAN STATION, South Korea - A South Korean cargo train chugged its way across the heavily fortified border into North Korea on Friday for what may be its last run, with the North putting an end to the historic rail service that had raised hopes for reconciliation between the Cold War foes.

"Let's meet again soon!" North Korean railway workers told their South Korean counterparts as they bid one another farewell, one train staff member said.

The suspension illustrates the rapid souring of relations between the two Koreas, at odds since Seoul's conservative President Lee Myung-bak assumed office in February and made a series of moves that upset the North.

The rail service - started a year ago for the first time in more than half a century - was one of the prominent fruits of a decade of reconciliation efforts.

The two Koreas technically remain at war because the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty. Ties began warming following the first-ever summit of their leaders in 2000, with two liberal South Korean presidents adopting a "Sunshine Policy" that called for reaching out to the North with aid.

But relations chilled again this year with Lee's election, and in anger over Lee's hard-line stance, North Korea announced Monday it would suspend the train and a popular tour program to its historic city of Kaesong, and order some South Koreans to leave an industrial complex in the border city by Dec. 1.

North Korea accuses the South of seeking a "confrontational" policy toward it.

Lee has questioned implementing key accords his predecessors struck with North Korean leader Kim Jong Il that call for providing aid to the North without condition. His administration also recently sponsored a U.N. resolution denouncing North Korea's human rights record, enraging the North.

Former President Kim Dae-jung, who launched the reconciliation process with the North, strongly criticized the South's current approach.

"The Lee Myung-bak government is deliberately trying to disrupt South-North relations," Kim said at a meeting Thursday with leaders of the progressive minor opposition Democratic Labor Party, according to South Korean media reports.

The daily round-trip train service from gleaming Dorasan Station has been largely symbolic, with trains running almost empty most of the time, including Friday. The service was intended to ship raw materials and products to and from the Kaesong complex, but South Korean companies prefer to use a road running parallel to the railway.

Returning from Kaesong on the train Friday, a member of the staff on board, Kwon Eun-young, said she was saddened by the suspension of the symbolic journey.

"Since the railway has been reconnected after 50 years, it would be good to have this service running again as soon as possible," she said. "The North Koreans said: 'Let's meet again soon.'"

South Korea also sent the last batch of tourists to Kaesong before the yearlong program is suspended, and South Koreans working at the Kaesong industrial complex began leaving the North on Friday.

About 4,000 South Koreans have permits to travel to Kaesong or stay in the enclave, but North Korea has said it will limit the number to about 1,500 to 1,700 starting Dec. 1, Seoul's Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyeon said Friday.

Eighty-eight South Korean companies run factories in Kaesong, hiring some 35,000 North Korean workers, churning out everything from shoes to clocks.

---

Associated Press writer Jae-soon Chang in Seoul contributed to this report.

 

By SHINWOO KANG Associated Press Writer

Without urgent action, "it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013," the bi-partisan commission said in its report "World at Risk."

The report, ordered by Congress and based on six months of research, warned the incoming administration of Barack Obama: "America's margin of safety is shrinking."

The report was due to be presented to President George W. Bush on Wednesday, the White House said, and also to vice president-elect Joseph Biden, according to officials from Obama's transition team.

The main dangers highlighted by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism are the rapid spread of atomic technology in countries such as Pakistan and Iran and poor security in biotech industries worldwide.

Although Pakistan is a close US ally, its inability to control swaths of territory, violent political instability, and a nuclear standoff with neighboring India make the Islamic nation the most lethal tinderbox of all.

"Were one to map terrorism and weapons of mass destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan," the report said.

"There is a grave danger it could also be an unwitting source of a terrorist attack on the United States, possibly with weapons of mass destruction," the report said.

The commission said terrorists are more likely to be able to obtain biological than nuclear weapons, with anthrax a particular danger, and warned that threats are "evolving faster than our multi-layered response."

The White House portrayed "World at Risk" as proof of Bush's strong security record, arguing that the United States has made important strides in addressing the dangers of nuclear and germ attacks.

"Under President Bush's leadership, extensive progress has been made on securing the world's weapons of mass destruction and protecting our citizens from a WMD attack," White House spokesman Scott Stanzel said.

"Our WMD preparedness has been transformed," Stanzel said in comments sent by email.

Congresswoman Jane Harman, the Democrat heading the Homeland Security Subcommittee on Intelligence and Terrorism Risk Assessment, also downplayed the warnings.

"It's time to retire the fear card," she said in a statement.

"We need to educate and inform the American people, not terrify them with alarming details about possible threats to the homeland.... Congress has in fact done a great deal to minimize and mitigate WMD threats."

The commission was led by former senator Bob Graham of Florida, a Democrat, and former congressman James Talent of Missouri, a Republican.

They were tasked by Congress in 2007, fulfilling a recommendation from the commission examining the hijacked airliner attacks of September 11, 2001 against New York and the Pentagon.

The main recommendations of the commission, aimed principally at the incoming Obama White House, are:

-- Better safeguard uranium and plutonium stockpiles and step up measures against nuclear smuggling rings.

-- Toughen the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

-- Ensure access to nuclear fuel for countries committed to developing only peaceful atomic technology.

-- Prevent new countries, including Iran and North Korea, from possessing uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing capabilities.

-- Urgently tighten security in domestic bio-sphere institutes and laboratories.

-- Call for an international conference of countries with major biotechnology industries.

-- Secure nuclear and biological materials in Pakistan.

-- Constrain a growing Asian arms race.

-- Agree with Russia on extending essential monitoring provisions of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty due to expire in 2009.

-- Create a White House advisory post on weapons of mass destruction proliferation.

PANAMA CITY, Panama - Russia said Wednesday it is sending a warship through the Panama Canal for the first time since World War II, a short journey loaded with symbolic weight: the destroyer will dock at a former U.S. naval base, showcasing Russia's growing influence in the region.

Russia appears to be relishing the idea of stopping at what was long a symbol of U.S. global power; the Russian Navy announced it would visit "the Rodman naval base" - a name that the host nation, Panama has not used since taking over the base from the United States in 1999.

The destroyer Admiral Chabanenko is scheduled to enter the Panama Canal on Friday morning and arrive late in the day at what Panama calls the Balboa Naval Base.

"It is a sort of tit-for-tat for Russia's perception of U.S. meddling in Georgia, Ukraine and Eastern Europe," and has little military purpose, said Adam Isacson, an analyst for the Washington-based Center for International Policy.

Russia, like the United States, already has ports with access to both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

"Sending a destroyer through the Panama canal obviously has a lot of symbolic significance (and) this is primarily symbolism," said analyst Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington

U.S. officials have expressed no concern over the visit - continuing a stance they took when the ship earlier participated in joint exercises with Venezuela's navy, which concluded Monday.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who campaigns against U.S. influence in the hemisphere, invited the Admiral Chabanenko and the nuclear-powered missile cruiser Peter the Great to join the exercises, adding to his growing military ties with the Kremlin.

Panamanian authorities said they would treat the Admiral Chabanenko as just another toll-paying ship, and the calm surrounding the visit is a sign of how far the country has come since it served as a Cold War bastion studded with U.S. military bases when the Canal Zone was U.S. control.

The canal was a symbol of America's growing global reach when it opened in 1914, and it was a major military outpost for generations. The 10-mile-wide, 51-mile-long strip along the canal was considered U.S. territory - a fact that allowed Canal Zone native John McCain to run for the U.S. presidency.

Panama is carrying out a multibillion dollar project to widen the waterway to accommodate bigger ships, and it sees the former U.S. bases as a tourist draw: the nearby Fort Amador is better known locally these days for its seafood restaurants than its military past.

"This isn't the moment where I think the (U.S.) conservatives will get too alarmed," said Shifter. "Perhaps if they had done it even a couple of months ago there would have been more concern, in the context of the Georgia crisis when oil prices hadn't dropped they way they have. Russia is now seen as sort of a weaker position then they were before."

Some U.S. conservatives tried to block or delay the canal hand-over in 1999, arguing that growing operations by a Hong Kong-based ports company would lead to a Chinese takeover of the waterway.

"Obviously, they've been proved to be wrong," Shifter said. "I think the Panamanians have demonstrated that they're perfectly able to run the canal very well; it's been very well managed and there's absolutely no concern" about foreign control.

Even the U.S. government is sanguine about the Russian ship.

"We have no interest in reviving Cold War images and rhetoric. We and the region have left this behind us and no longer see our relationships with other countries through the Cold War lens," said a U.S. State Department official who was not authorized to be quoted by name.

"We are looking for ways to enhance mutual cooperation in the Americas, and see a constructive role for Russia" in the process, he said.

But the presence of the Russian warship still has resonance for some in Panama, which was dominated by the United States for nearly a century, and which underwent a U.S. invasion in 1989 that ousted dictator Manuel Noriega.

President Martin Torrijos is the son of military strongman Omar Torrijos, who negotiated the return of the canal to Panama's control in the 1970s with former president Jimmy Carter. For Panamanians, the Russian "shows 'we're not under Uncle Sam's domination anymore,'" Isacson said.

Mario Rognoni, an adviser to ruling-party presidential candidate Balbina Herrera, said the Russian visit "demonstrates how times have changed, and the neutrality we have shown in operating the canal."

---

Associated Press Writers Mark Stevenson in Mexico City and Vladimir Isachenkov and Steve Gutterman in Moscow contributed to this report.

 

By JUAN ZAMORANO Associated Press Writers

Army To Equip National Guard Unit With FCS Aerial Robots

illustration only

by Staff Writers
Huntsville AL (SPX) Dec 03, 2008
The Army's commitment to equipping its total force with Future Combat System (FCS) capabilities continues as the first Army National Guard unit - the 56th Stryker Brigade Combat Team of the Pennsylvania National Guard begins training next month with the FCS-developed gasoline-powered Micro Air Vehicle (gMAV) prior to the unit's deployment to Iraq in January.

The gMAV is a precursor technology to the FCS program's Class I Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV) that will be fielded to Infantry Brigade Combat Teams starting in 2011. The Class I UAV is currently under evualation by Soldiers of the Army's Evaluation Task Force at Fort Bliss, Texas.

The gMAV is man packable and provides a hover and stare capability not currently present in either Army or Air Force UAV inventories. Its sensor platform can take still and video imagery, which provides key intelligence for precision targeting and surveillance operations.

The 56th Stryker Brigade will replace elements of the 2/25th Stryker Brigade who have used the gMAV for reconnaissance and convoy protection operations while deployed to Iraq and participated in extensive gMAV testing and evaluation experiments prior to that.

"This fielding is unique as the 56th Stryker Brigade represents the first National Guard Unit to use FCS developed Unmanned Air Vehicles," said Army Major Gregg Dellert, FCS assistant product manager for Micro Air Vehicle and Class I Block Zero Unmanned Air Vehicles.

"The 2/25th Stryker Brigade has been using the gMAV for some time now, but we expect to gain new insight from the fresh user perspective the guard unit will bring."

The gMAV started life as a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency initiative but battlefield needs, as stressed by a Joint Operational Needs Statement endorsed by the Joint Chiefs of Staff in 2006, helped put the gMAV in the hands of Soldiers deployed to Iraq. The gMAV has also been successfully used in theater by the Navy as part of a joint task force ordnance explosive disposal unit.

Starting in early December, Dellert will train 10 Guardsmen from 56th Stryker Brigade during a course on gMAV fundamentals and field use. Once deployed, these Soldiers will then be responsible for training gMAV operators. The 56th Stryker Brigade will use 15 gMAVs for reconnaissance and other protection operations.

Due to their mission, it is expected that the National Guard Soldiers will find different ways to use the gMAV in theater.

"In terms of both the future development of the gMAV and the FCS Class I UAV, having a fresh set of eyes will prove very useful. These National Guard Soldiers will help our FCS developers make sure that future versions of these UAVs will have all capabilities required for robust mission sets."

The sanctions forbid the 16 from having business dealings with the US government or private US firms in what the State Department says is a renewed bid to make sure the network has been shut down entirely.

"This is a prudent effort on our part," a State Department official told AFP on the condition of anonymity.

The official said that Washington has had concerns that elements of the network could still be active since Khan, the father of Pakistan's atomic bomb, acknowledged his role nearly five years ago.

Khan has been effectively under house arrest in Islamabad since February 2004, when he confessed on television to sending nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea, although he retracted his remarks later.

"We want to close any loopholes. We think that this network has been dismantled, but we don't know that with absolute certainly," the US official said.

The sanctions are also a signal to other countries.

"Certainly we hope it will encourage other countries to frankly go out there and look at their existing sanctions and see if they can tighten them," the official said.

In June last year, former UN arms inspector David Albright urged the US government to pressure Pakistan to allow US or UN experts to question Khan over the sale of nuclear know-how to Iran or North Korea.

It was important to obtain such information in case Khan, a hero for many in Pakistan, is released, he added.

In Islamabad, Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said Monday: "AQ Khan is a closed chapter. Pakistan is mindful of its responsibilities as a nuclear weapon state as well as its international obligations."

"The sanctions are not against the state or government. The US has in fact applauded Pakistan's contributions to promote global non-proliferation," the prime minister's office quoted him as saying.

Howard Berman, who chairs the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs, welcomed the "belated" sanctions, but said more work is needed to fight proliferation as Barack Obama prepares to assume the presidency next week.

"Equipment and technology from this network may still be circulating, and new suppliers could well spring up to take Khan's place," Berman, a Democrat, said in a statement.

Most of those sanctioned have for years been mentioned in the media over their links to Khan: Turkish businessman Selim Alguadis and his firm EKA Elektronik Kontrol Aletleri Sanayi ve Ticaret AS, Pakistani scientists Muhammad Farooq and Muhammad Nasim ud Din, Sri Lankan scientist Buhary Seyyed Abu Tahor, German engineers Gerhard Wisser and Gotthard Lerch, Swiss engineer Daniel Geiges and British businessmen and brothers Paul and Peter Griffin.

Set up by Wissar, the South African firm Tradefin Engineering is also on the list which nevertheless does not say whether these individuals or firms have business interests in the United States or retain contacts with US firms.

Official say the measures ban credit, guarantees, or insurance in support of US exports to the sanctioned individuals; forbid US imports from the sanctioned entity; and freeze the assets of a sanctioned entity within US jurisdiction.

The statement mentions other people without listing their nationalities or links to Khan: Kursad Zafer Cire, Shamsul Bahrin bin Rubikan, Shah Hakim Shahnazim Zain and the Turkish firm ETI Elektroteknik Sanayi ve Tikaret AS.

The State Department said many of Khan's associates are either in custody, being prosecuted, or have been convicted of crimes, but did not give details on the status of each.

North Korea, Iran 'still dangerous': Bush

NKorea offers envoy for Obama inauguration: reports North Korea offered to send its chief nuclear negotiator to next week's inauguration of US President-elect Barack Obama, but Washington has responded coolly, South Korean news reports said Monday. The JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, quoting a Seoul government source, said the communist state may be trying to assess whether its traditional enemy's policy will change under Obama, who takes office on January 20. The hardline North, which has been locked in nuclear disarmament talks for years, refrained from its customary criticism of the United States in a policy-setting New Year message. "The North, through its United Nations mission office in New York, conveyed the message that it can send Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye-Gwan as a representative to the inauguration ceremony," the source told JoongAng. The message was delivered to the Obama transition team via a non-profit US organisation, The Korea Society, the source said. "I've heard negative opinions far outpaced the positive views," the source added, referring to the response from the Obama team. "Pyongyang may be trying to test the political waters in the Obama administration by watching Washington's response." Yonhap news agency, citing a diplomatic source, said the North's proposal had been turned down because of US scepticism. Both JoongAng and Yonhap said the new administration would be unlikely to invite a Pyongyang envoy until it has mapped out its policy on North Korea. South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-Hwan said he could not confirm the reports. But he noted that only resident ambassadors, and not special foreign envoys, are normally invited to US inaugurations. The United States has since 2003 been involved in six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear disarmament. The latest round -- involving the United States, the two Koreas, China, Russia and Japan -- ended fruitlessly in Beijing last month. No agreement was reached on ways to verify the secretive nation's declaration of its atomic programmes.

by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Jan 12, 2009
US President George W. Bush said on Monday that North Korea and Iran are "still dangerous," saying Pyongyang may be enriching uranium for nuclear weapons.

Describing the threats the next president will face, Bush said he was concerned the North Korean regime had a clandestine program for highly enriched uranium.

"So they're still dangerous," Bush said.

And he added: "Iran is still dangerous."

It was the first time the US president had referred to North Korea's suspected uranium enrichment work since international talks with Pyongyang broke down last month. Previous public statements by Bush had focused on North Korea's plutonium program.

The disarmament talks with North Korea involving the United States, South Korea, China, Russia and Japan collapsed in Beijing in December after failing to reach agreement on how to determine if the secretive nation is telling the truth about its nuclear programs.

"North Korea is still a problem. There is a debate in the intelligence community about how big a problem they are. One of my concerns is that there might be a highly enriched uranium program," said Bush, who steps down on January 20.

"Therefore, it is very important that out of the six-party talks comes a strong verification regime" to confirm North Korea is abiding by its commitments.

Bush did not comment further on Iran but his administration has previously demanded Tehran suspend its uranium enrichment work and accused Iran of secretly pursuing a nuclear weapons program.

Iran denies it is seeking an atomic bomb and says its nuclear program aims to provide energy for its growing population when reserves of fossil fuels run out.

NKorean arms exports rose to 100 million dlrs last year: report
Exports of North Korean missiles and other weapons rose in value to about 100 million dollars last year mainly due to tensions in the Middle East, a South Korean newspaper reported Monday.

The hardline communist country saw a sharp drop in weapons exports in 2007 because of international sanctions imposed after it tested missiles and an atom bomb in 2006.

Last year the value of its overseas arms sales rose to about 100 million dollars or more than 10 percent of total exports, the Dong-a Ilbo newspaper said.

It quoted an unidentified Seoul government official as saying progress in six-party nuclear disarmament talks last year helped North Korea sell more weapons.

The paper said purchasers felt less political burden in buying such weapons because the talks had made some headway.

The Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America were said to be export destinations.

"Middle East countries are known to have purchased a large amount of weapons from North Korea due to a military confrontation with Israel," the official was quoted as saying.

North Korea has allegedly supplied missiles to Syria, and Washington said Iranian officials were present at the North's missile test-launches in 2006.

The South's unification ministry and defence ministry said they could not confirm the newspaper report.

The United States has accused North Korea of being a leading global proliferator of weapons. But the cash-strapped country has refused to stop missile exports, a major source of hard currency earnings.

Analysis: Obama picks outsider for CIA job
by Shaun Waterman
Washington (UPI) Jan 12, 2009
Intelligence outsiders like Leon Panetta, President-elect Barack Obama's pick to be director of central intelligence, have a mixed record at heading the agency, serving and former officials say.

"There was a desire to make a clean break with the policies of the Bush administration. ... They had to bring someone in from the outside," said one senior aide at the Senate Intelligence Committee who asked for anonymity to discuss a nominee seeking confirmation from the panel.

John Brennan, a former senior CIA counter-terrorism official who originally was being considered for the post, ruled himself out after a storm of protest from some Obama supporters occasioned by his tenure at the agency during a time when it used interrogation techniques like water-boarding -- simulated drowning -- that critics label torture.

"They allowed the bloggers to dictate that they couldn't appoint anyone" who had served at the agency during the Bush administration, said a former senior CIA official. The former official called the pick "pretty good Â… given the hand they dealt themselves."

"If you rule out anyone who had been there in the last eight years," the former official continued, "you limit the universe of people" from which you can choose.

He said that, at 70 years old, Panetta was likely "not thinking about his next job" after heading the agency -- an important qualification. "If you stay there (as director) for any length of time -- well, let's just say you don't make many new friends."

Nonetheless, the former official said, choosing an outsider was "not ideal."

Even those who support the pick acknowledge that Panetta -- as someone who has not had access to current intelligence for many years -- will have, in the words of the Senate Intelligence Committee aide, "a very steep learning curve."

"He'll have to get up to speed very quickly on the hot spots (like Afghanistan-Pakistan, North Korea and Iran) -- who is who and who is doing what Â… how we are collecting against those targets," said the aide.

In addition to the substantive aspects of the job, the new director, if confirmed, will have to swiftly learn his way around the agency, familiarizing himself with the way it is organized and how it operates on a day-to-day level.

"The value of an insider is that they know how things run and what questions to ask," said a senior U.S. national security official who asked for anonymity because he is not authorized to speak to the media.

"In any agency," the Senate aide said, "the career bureaucrats know everything," and this can make things difficult for an outsider, especially if he does not enjoy their trust.

In this context, some observers say Panetta should move to reassure agency staff that he will support them, especially given concerns about possible investigations by the incoming administration into CIA practices like interrogation and rendition.

These concerns have been stoked by the suggestions from some Democrats that the appointment of an outsider is designed in part, as Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., put it, "to usher in a new era of accountability" at the agency.

In a statement issued last week, Wyden, a senior member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, added: "For too long our nation's intelligence community has operated under a policy of questionable effectiveness and legality. Â… I look forward to working with Mr. Panetta to declassify much of the story of what went wrong at the CIA these last eight years."

"People (at the CIA) don't know him. Â… There are a lot of unknowns," said the national security official.

"He will have to reassure the rank and file that he believes in them. Â… They need to be comforted," added the official, urging Panetta to hold a series of "all hands" meetings for staff and to arrange in short order a visit to the agency's headquarters by the president himself.

To help reassure CIA staff, Panetta also is being urged to keep intact the leadership team around outgoing Director Michael Hayden, including especially his deputy, Steven Kappes, a veteran spy popular at the agency who was brought back by Hayden after quitting following a clash with the previous director, former Rep. Porter Goss, R-Fla.

"I have very high regard for Steve Kappes," another Intelligence Committee member, Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., said in a statement. He added that he was "impressed by (Kappes') competency."

"I hope we can convince both Mr. Panetta and Mr. Kappes to work together at the CIA," concluded Bayh.

The former CIA official said that even if Panetta were able to get up to speed and win the support of staff, he still would suffer from being an outsider.

"There's a unique culture" at the CIA, the former official said. "It takes a while to learn how to decipher what you are hearing and seeing."

"You wouldn't make someone commandant of the Marine Corps if they'd never been in the military," the former official concluded.

But the historical record appears more mixed than this observation would suggest.

The man after whom the CIA headquarters building is now named, the first President George Bush, described himself as a "total outsider" to intelligence when he took over the agency.

"I viewed my job not to learn all the tradecraft, but to defend the quality and the character of the agency and the people there," Bush told Fox News Sunday. "That was perhaps an easier assignment than knowing all about every intrigue of intelligence."

George Tenet, though he had worked for the Senate Intelligence Committee and the National Security Council, had never served at the CIA when President Bill Clinton tapped him to head it.

On the other hand, James Woolsey and John Deutch, the two other outsiders who headed the agency under Clinton -- and during Panetta's last stint in government -- are widely regarded as having much less successful tenures. Woolsey declined comment through an aide, and Deutch did not respond to a telephone message asking for an interview.

"All I hope," former President Bush said, "is that whoever goes out there goes with confidence in the CIA, and the people around CIA, they're good people." He said he had "great confidence" in Obama's pick.

The Ten Billion Dollar Cyber Defense Initiative - Part Eight

Despite the growing array of problems associated with using and securing Internet-style networks, virtually nobody in the U.S. government thinks it is desirable to return to a pre-Internet way of doing business.

by Loren B. Thompson
Washington (UPI) Jan 12, 2009
In 2008, the Bush administration during its last year in office began a Comprehensive National Cybersecurity Initiative that eventually will spend more than $10 billion strengthening defenses of U.S. government networks.

During the 2008 U.S. presidential campaign, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, the Republican presidential nominee, noted the growing military role of information operations, while the victorious Democratic presidential nominee, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, stated the U.S. government needed to build "the capacity to identify, isolate and respond to any cyberattack."

It appears, therefore, that U.S. national leaders do grasp the importance of network security and information assurance. But seeing the problem is not the same thing as solving it. Before that can occur, there are eight basic questions the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama needs to answer.

First, do current trends in cyber threats indicate the United States faces a real crisis of confidence in its networks, or are efforts like the comprehensive cybersecurity initiative sufficient to deal with the challenge?

Second, given how important global connectivity is to information superiority, is it possible to secure essential U.S. government networks while still maintaining links to the anarchic and anonymous Internet?

Third, will the Internet in its current form ever permit users to trace sophisticated attacks to their sources, so that abuses can be effectively deterred and/or defeated?

Fourth, what legal authorities are required so that the U.S. government can overcome barriers to dealing with attacks on critical private-sector networks and establish consistent security standards?

Fifth, what is the proper relationship within the U.S. government between network defense and offensive information operations in formulating an integrated cybersecurity posture?

Sixth, how can the U.S. government encourage a holistic, enterprise-wide understanding of its network resources and challenges, so that solutions are developed in a truly comprehensive rather than piecemeal fashion?

Seventh, is the U.S. Department of Homeland Security an appropriate vehicle for managing government-wide cybersecurity efforts, or is a more focused organization better suited to the task?

Eighth, if the U.S. government is too slow or decentralized to keep up with the rapid proliferation of cyber threats, how can it tap more agile suppliers of network security in the marketplace?

These questions need to be answered before the United States suffers the digital equivalent of a Sept. 11, 2001, attack that so many experts have been predicting.

Despite the growing array of problems associated with using and securing Internet-style networks, virtually nobody in the U.S. government thinks it is desirable to return to a pre-Internet way of doing business. So the real issue policymakers face in meeting the cybersecurity challenge is not whether they can live without digital networks, but how they prevent the enemies of the United States from using those networks against it.

(Loren B. Thompson is chief executive officer of the Lexington Institute, an Arlington, Va.-based think tank that supports democracy and the free market.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)